Cards RL +155 (0.32 to win 0.50)
Given how well Miller pitches @ home and what the Cards do to Righties in at Busch this seemed worth the risk. Leake hasn't fared too well against this team, and the Reds bullpen is in shambles. Plus the Reds have not been able to do much on offense ... it's becoming very clear how much Choo contributed to this team.
(#2 GM)Padres ML +110 (0.50 to win 0.60)
I don't think I would get much argument when saying that Erlin is clearly the better pitcher in this matchup, as Bauer has been brought up from the minors, only to be sent back down due to poor performance. Erlin however seemed to have found his stride at the end of the year, with Padres winning 4 of the last 5 he started in. Bauer is getting the slight advantage in this game because he's @ home with the Indians lineup backing him up, but I'll wager he can't get the run support today with the Indians going up against the Lefty in the cold.
Brewers ML -120 (1.20 to win 1.00)
Would like to go -1 in this but there doesn't seem to be any reward in it. Garza was solid in his first start of the year against the Braves, and he has done very well against the Phillies in his career. The only potential batter that has done well against him is Dominic Brown and that's a small sample size. Meanwhile Roberto pitched suprisingly well in his first outing, though I think if it was a team other than the Cubs it would have ended differently. Cubbies so far this year are again in the bottom third against batting versus righties. I think the Brew crew should fare better against this mediocre righty. Add the sizeable advantage for the Brewers in the Bullpen and I think you are getting the Brewers at a discount here.
MIL/PHI U7.5 @ -110 (0.60 to win 0.50)
A bit of a hedge, just in case Hernandez somehow outpitches Garza. I do think I'll win this and the moneyline though.
Diamondbacks FF ML +120 (0.42 to win 0.50)
Giants won the last matchup six days ago when these two pitchers squared off. Though Arroyo didn't have a very good game in his last outing, he typically finds a way to put his team in winning position versus the Giants. Lincecum on the other side though. The same can't be said about Lincecum, and since I don't want to deal with this Arizona bullpen, we'll see if Arroyo & company can get ahead early.
April 8th & 9th,
PIT/CHC U7.0 -115 (0.65 to win 0.50) LOSS
Giants -1 -107 WIN
Giants RL +150 (0.33 to win 0.50)
Giants ML -147 (0.74 to win 0.50)
HOU/TOR U8.5 @ -105 (0.78 to win 0.75) WIN
Mariners FF +125 (0.80 to win 1.00) WIN
--------------------------------------------
Cards RL +155 (0.32 to win 0.50) LOSS
(#2 GM)Padres ML +110 (0.50 to win 0.60) WIN
Brewers ML -120 (1.20 to win 1.00) WIN
MIL/PHI U7.5 @ -110 (0.60 to win 0.50) LOSS
Diamondbacks FF ML +120 (0.42 to win 0.50) WIN
Combined Day Total: 6-3 (+3.28)
Overall: 19-9 (+8.40)
Total Units Risked: 21.49
ROI: 39.09%
Thursday, April 10th,
PIT/CHC U7.5 @ -120 (0.70 to win 0.50)
I'm suprised the public isn't all over the under in this game. Wood has been very good against this pirates team and his the home dog as well which is generally a good sign if your thinking about the under. And while these Cubs batters have been able to hit Cole, they haven't done much with those as he is typically a groundball pitcher and doesn't let those mistakes he makes come back to bite him very often. Weather isn't great, just okay. But I think that maybe why the total isn't a half run less in this game. That and all the money on the Over.
Nationals ML +110 (0.45 to win 0.50)
Nationals TTR o3.5@ +105 (0.48 to win 0.50)
Roark is off to an impressive start in his young career, and one what I find most impressive so far is that he has only allowed one home run in about 60 innings of work, that coming at Busch which is understandable. Small sample size, but it's probably why he has fared so well against the Braves in his 11 innings of play and is why he's a good bet a plus money. Teheran has pitched pretty well against the Nat's including his season opener this year, but there are guys in this Washington lineup that have shown the ability to hit his stuff (Desmond, Span, Laroche, Harper) which is why I like their chances of picking up a fifth straight victory, especially at plus money.
CHW/CLE FF o4.0 -110 (1.10 to win 1.00)
Carrasco's has shown himself to be very mediocre so far in his career, and won't last long if he keeps performing in this manner versus division opponents. While Sale has also been roughed up by these Indians, and don't see him escaping the first five without allowing at least a couple runs himself, with first seven in the lineup tonight hitting a combined .300 against him.
PIT/CHC U7.5 @ -120 (0.60 to win 0.50) LOSS
-----------------------------------------
Nationals ML +110 (0.45 to win 0.50) LOSS
Nationals TTR o3.5@ +105 (0.48 to win 0.50) WIN
CHW/CLE FF o4.0 -110 (1.10 to win 1.00) WIN
Combined Day Total: 2-2 (+0.45)
Overall: 21-11 (+8.85)
Total Units Risked: 24.07
ROI: 36.77%
Indians FF RL +110 (0.50 to win 0.55)
Can't ignore what Masterson has done the past five games against the White Sox, especially going up against Felipe Paulino even if he pitched okay versus the Indians before his surgery. I feel like this first five RL should be juiced.
Athletics RL +135 (0.50 to win 0.68)
I would like Ramirez chances of better of putting his team in position to win this game if his performance against the A's hasn't progressively deteriorated with each game, he has good chance to do better than his last outing @ home but he'll be going up against Gray, who has put his team in position to win his first three outings against the Mariners in his young career. Athletics will get a nice step down in difficulty as well after facing Hernandez yesterday, who they never hit anyways. I would think the A's will have extra incentive to put runs on the board today.
Last edited by Emancipator; 04-12-14 at 08:18 PM. Reason: adjust unit size
I really want to take the DET/SD FF over at +135 but I'll lay off since it's in Diego.
Phillies -1 @ +113
Phillies ML -120 (0.60 to win 0.50)
Phillies RL +170 (0.29 to win 0.50)
I find it hard too imagine that the Marlins would somehow not get swept today. The first two games I think were their best chances at coming out with a win and they couldn't make it happen. The Marlins haven't been relevant for about five years now and Kyle Kendrick's performance can probably be attributed to that. And since the Marlins are starting to show that the want to be sub mediocre team again this year, there is not much reason to think that this trend won't continue. While Alvarez hasn't been all that sharp early on this season, and seems like a good fade today.
OAK/SEA U7.5 @ -110 (0.55 to win 0.50)
Chris Young is a flyball pitcher but he should be able to keep them in the park today given he's in Seattle with the wind blowing in from center field today. On the other side Kluber has fared well against this players he has seen from the past in this Mariners lineup that will be interspersed with some he hasn't seen. Factor a couple top 10 bullpens and I'd say more than half the time this game total would end at 7 or under.
Rockies ML +135 (0.37 to win 0.50)
4/12 & 4/13
Indians FF RL +110 (0.50 to win 0.55) LOSS
Athletics RL +135 (0.50 to win 0.68) WIN
--------------------------------------
Phillies -1 @ +113 PUSH
Phillies ML -120 (0.60 to win 0.50)
Phillies RL +170 (0.29 to win 0.50)
OAK/SEA U7.5 @ -110 (0.55 to win 0.50) WIN
Rockies ML +135 (0.37 to win 0.50) LOSS
Combined Day Total: 2-2-1 (+0.52)
Overall: 23-13-1 (+9.37)
Units Risked: 26.88
ROI: 34.86%
A bit frustrated considering my three losses were all by a margin of one run. Still if this is what my ruts are going to be like this baseball season, I'll take it considering I managed to eke out a small profit.
Braves FF RL +120 (0.83 to win 1.00)
This seems like a no brainer but we'll see. Both teams are on a 3 game win streak but the Phillies run came against the bottom feeder Marlins, while the Braves got theirs off a stout Washington team with good pitching, scoring more than five runs in each game. Now the Braves will head to Philly and will face off against Roberto Hernandez and I will be disappointed if runs are not scored against this mediocre pitcher after what was done to Gonzalez, Roark, Jordan. While Santana will be coming off a shutout. Though it was against the Mets. The wind will be blowing out to left field today and both hitter give up home runs pretty easily. Especially Santana who averages one per game and may very well give one up, but I feel like I'm getting the better pitcher at a good price here. While neutralizing this solid Nationals bullpen against a pitcher the Braves should be able to rough up. We'll see.
TB/BAL U8.5 Even (1.00 to win 1.00)
40 degrees with the win blowing in from left at 20 mph will put a damper on alot of the flyballs that these two pitchers give up. Baltimore hasn't hit the ball well at Camden so far this year, and the Rays have been the opposite on the road. I think these two pitchers are better than what they have done so far this year and they have a good chance to put in a solid games in this kind of weather, Odorizzi especially as he hasn't played more than a couple innings against the Orioles in his career.
