Let's beat the book

Looks like an interesting day today. I'm not sure if betting on an unofficial game is a good idea but we'll see. The Cleveland Indians couldn't get it done on the (A) bet so We will now go to the (B) bet.

What ever you bet on the Indians. Bet 3X's that. The faux bank bet was $56.00 so we will bet $168.00 to win $122.63 ML -137.

Now for the games that we can bet on. Looks like we have 4 (A) bets.
Washington (A) bet RL
KC (A) bet ML -147
Cardinals (A) bet ML -122
Tigers (A) bet ML -135

Here's what I'm going to do. Because I'm betting on the somewhat conservative side, I am only going to place a bet on one or two of these games. As much as I would like to put something on all 4 games. I just know that if I put that much of my bank roll on the line something bad will happen.

So I'm going to place a bet on the two teams that are farthest apart on the (Power Ranking) list. And those two teams are.
Tigers (A) bet 1 unit $45.00 to win $33.33.
Cards (A) bet 1 unit $45.00 to win 20.27.

Faux bank
$1070.39-$168.00=$902.39-$90.00=$812.39

Of course you do what you want and good luck.

Do you see it yet. A simple plan for a simple man. 2 official bets and 1 unofficial bet came through for us yesterday.

Faux bank roll was $812.39 now is $1246.62

Official system bets are 7-1 unofficial bets are 3-0. Boston screwed us in the first week. Shouldn't have bet on them. Next year, any bets in the first week should be passed on.

Today we have two plays to make. We will bet them like they were (A) bets even though they are in the (B) bet spot. And that's because we didn't bet on them yesterday. We will bet 1 unit. That's 5% of our bank.

Washington (A) bet ML -120 $62.00 to win $51.67
KC (A) bet ML -130 $62.00 to win $47.69

Faux bank $1246.62-$124.00=$1122.62

P.S. Yesterday Thomas Cole, my dad passed away at 5:04 pm. We were going to go for a motorcycle ride tomorrow. He seemed healthy yesterday morning. He was only 70 years old. Don't sweat the small stuff. Hug the people you love.

Sorry for your loss, JTC.
Best of luck today.
...and RIP Mr. Cole, may the road rise to meet you.

Thank you.

I wasn't able to be on top of things yesterday. Hope I didn't miss out on too much. Had some things that needed to be done.

Well looks like we got screwed by Washington and KC. I think the reason for that was simply because it's April and we are seeing big swings in the (Power Ranking ) list. As we get farther into the season things will stabilize and the chances of losing will be much less.

Official bets are now 7-3 unofficial are 3-0.

Faux bank $1122.62

Looks like the Rays lost the first game against Baltimore. The Rays are in the #1 spot on the list this week and Baltimore is #21. So that means we have an (A) bet on the Rays. 1 unit 5% of your bank.

Rays (A) bet ML -105 $56.00 to win $53.33

We also have 3 games to watch tonight.
Tigers/Indians
KC/Astros
Dodgers/Giants

Faux bank $1066.62

GL

nice thread!

Hey, love your thread helped me pick up a few good winners.. may I make a suggestion that might help (at-least did for me, managed to dodge the nationals and kc game) is I took a number of power rankings I could find and then averaged the team's between all of them to make my own list to use with your system, it seemed to work but could have just been luck. Cheers, and good luck!

This thread is interesting Jimmy, but from what I can see its the 15% bets that are killing your bank, why don't you bet flat stakes for the first 2 months till things settle down and you've got better team stats. I think on your current record you would have made more profit just betting 5% on each bet. Good Luck Man.

Thanks guys. There is room for improvement. And if you see something please speak up. This system is just something that came to mind at the tail end of last season when I was looking at how many times in a year a team gets swept. As you know, it happens but not all that much. I'm just going to pull a number out of my ass right now. If you look at all the games Boston or really any other team played in a year and look at how many times in the season they were swept. You will see that on average they were only swept 1 to 3% of all games played. How many times did Boston get swept last year ? Lets say 4 times. I don't really know. But lets say that was 2% of all the games they played. That means you have a 98% chance that they won't get swept. Right ? So really any time they play a team that is not nearly as good as them and they lose the first game. You have a pretty good chance of wining one of the next two games.

From there, it was just a case of drinking more beer and thinking about it a little more. At first I only played with the top 5 teams. After a few weeks I had not lost one bet. But I wanted more action. After a few more beers I started thinking that the bottom 5 might produce the same sort of results. And sure enough, they did. As far as bank management goes. Seems like there are many good ways and bad ways to manage your BR. I haven't had to reload in years. So I feel good about the way I do it but by all means if you have some way of doing it and it's better than the way I do it. I'm all ears. Please let me, and anyone else here know about it. After all we just want to beat the book.

And now for today's news. Looks like some of our games were postponed due to weather. The bet on the Rays was scratched. So that play is a no go. Out of the games we had to watch it looks like the only one that came through for us was the Dodger/Giants game. The Dodgers lost. So we will bet that they will win one of their next two games.

Faux bank $1122.62

We have an (A) bet on the Dodgers. And the system says to bet the RL because they are dogs, but they are just a very slight dog. The ML has much better value. I'm going to stick with the system. I have too or it won't be a system.

Dodgers (A) bet 1 unit 5% of bank. $56.00 to win $26.27.

Faux bank $1066.62

Looks like we will have a few games to watch tomorrow. You could say the Cubs/Yanks game is one to watch today, but it's a double header. So I'm not sure we should bet that one.

The Dodgers won the bet. I'm so glad I resisted the urge to bet the ML. The system is a system for a reason.

System bets are now, official 8-3 unofficial 3-0.

Faux bank $1066.62+$82.27=$1148.89

We have no plays today, but tomorrow it looks like we have 6 games to watch. See ya then.

Sorry for your loss first of all. I know it's tough. Keep up the good work! Very interesting. You have another
follower. Good luck this season and let's get rich

Originally Posted by sunshine11

Sorry for your loss first of all. I know it's tough. Keep up the good work! Very interesting. You have another
follower. Good luck this season and let's get rich

Thank you. It's been a hard week. My father spent 3.5 years in the Navy, joined at 17 in 1961. After he was discharged he became a State Trooper. Retired after 23 years. At the same time he was in the National Guard for 20 + years. He had many, many friends.

Today he was put to rest with full military honors. He was escorted to the Saratoga National Cemetery by the NY State police, the Blue Nights Chapter VIII and the Patriot Guard. He was a hell of a man and it was one hell of a service. I will miss him.

P.S. My dad was also the best man at my wedding.

And now, back to base ball. Official bets are 8-3 unofficial are 3-0. Faux bank is $1148.89.

Today we will be watching a few teams. These are the first in a 3 game series and depending on how these games go will determine how fat our bank roll will get over the next two days.

These teams must win in order for us to have bet.
Cubs
Mets
Miami
Houston
Diamondbacks
These teams must lose in order for us to make a bet.
Tigers
Oak A's
Dodgers

BOL

Thanks for sharing. Wrote the games down and hopefully there will be a few plays tomorrow. Than watch them on Saturday and win! See ya

A realistic unit size being 4% of a bankroll, one unit of $1000 is $40. So you are up 3.722 units. I am just putting into perspective what you are doing and I like it. It seems safe enough.