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on3's MLB 2014 Opening Day System Thread

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#481

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Should not take too long to do with on3 providing plays lines to make a quick excel file. Just list all the plays from this thread with his amounts and compare his 100 units minus what's on the line and see if it matches. some times i don't know or understand how something works just as long as it works...we had this same problem last year.
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#482

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Quote Originally Posted by Wallco99 View Post
If you lose 30, then the next day win 30, you would be even. Yet in these situations you chalk up +1 1/2 units of win. Losses are never accounted for anywhere. A few days ago, TB lost 35 @ -153 and 65 at another high line on the A and B bets. The C bet won 81, yet you chalked up +4 units of profit for that. This +100 units for system isn't even close to accurate. Most of the monies being won back on these labby wins are amounts of monies that were lost on previous bets, yet every game that wins gets counted as +money profits instead of just money that was won back. If all the numbers start at 10, and you find yourself betting 60 or 70 on a game, the majority of that money was previous loss amounts. How can recouping them be counted as +units for the system?
I account for any winning series as +1 unit. I never, not once, accounted for a (B) or (C) bet as more than 1 unit. That is simply an inaccurate statement. What I did notice was that on a handful of the (A) bets were recorded as more than +1 unit, and those were often after additional units were added to the line. I will audit the units during the all-star break because these (A) bets should have only counted for 1 unit.

There is currently $215 of losses on the labby line, or 10.75 units. That means the net result of the regular system is +89.25 units. If I use a 10 unit margin of error (I expect the error to be in the 5-6 unit range), that puts us at +79.25 units. If we were using a system without a labby line, then we would have 115 wins - 48.37 losses = +66.63 units. It makes sense that our labby system unit total is +10/+15 units higher since the majority of (A) bets are for more than 1 unit and the record for (A) bets is a little better than 66%.

If losses we NOT accounted for, then the 115 system wins would = +115 units, but that simply isn't the case. This method helps in seeing where the system stands and if it is actually progressing. Is the unit count perfect? No. But they are close, and the records are 100% accurate.
Last edited by on3; 07-08-14 at 06:19 PM.
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#485

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UPDATED for 7/9/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 116-6-0; Profit: +101 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units, KC -8.5 units, COL -10.25 units, CLE -7 units. BOS -13.25 units)
Filtered System: 14-1-0; Profit: +11 units
5/2 chase: 2-1-0; profit: -6.80 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 82-41; 11-7
Game 2 (B) win = 19-23; 2-4; 2-3
Game 3 (C) win = 15-6; 1-1; 0-1

Labby
x-x-x-x-30-30
35-25-28-35
15-15-38-38

Labby filtered (changing to single line labby since there arent enough plays to justify a 3-line)
x-10-10-29-30-x-63-56

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(C) BOS -105 to win 53
(C) TEX -200/+100 to win 53

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
(C) BOS -105 to win 73
(C) TEX -200/+100 to win 66

5/2
(2) BOS -105 to win 201
(2) TEX -205 to win 180 (5/2 was only tested on ML and not RL, so ML is the official play)
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#486

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Quote Originally Posted by on3 View Post
I account for any winning series as +1 unit. I never, not once, accounted for a (B) or (C) bet as more than 1 unit. That is simply an inaccurate statement. What I did notice was that on a handful of the (A) bets were recorded as more than +1 unit, and those were often after additional units were added to the line. I will audit the units during the all-star break because these (A) bets should have only counted for 1 unit.

There is currently $215 of losses on the labby line, or 10.75 units. That means the net result of the regular system is +89.25 units. If I use a 10 unit margin of error (I expect the error to be in the 5-6 unit range), that puts us at +79.25 units. If we were using a system without a labby line, then we would have 115 wins - 48.37 losses = +66.63 units. It makes sense that our labby system unit total is +10/+15 units higher since the majority of (A) bets are for more than 1 unit and the record for (A) bets is a little better than 66%.

If losses we NOT accounted for, then the 115 system wins would = +115 units, but that simply isn't the case. This method helps in seeing where the system stands and if it is actually progressing. Is the unit count perfect? No. But they are close, and the records are 100% accurate.
You have to do more than just subtract the amount of money left on the lines from the units won to get your total. Because a lot of the money that was counted in the units won was just recouped money from previous losses, and these too were credited as +units on the overall profit, even if it was only +1 unit per bet as you say.
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#488

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Quote Originally Posted by J.M. Disciple View Post
Should not take too long to do with on3 providing plays lines to make a quick excel file. Just list all the plays from this thread with his amounts and compare his 100 units minus what's on the line and see if it matches. some times i don't know or understand how something works just as long as it works...we had this same problem last year.
Posting the record is fine. But I don't think the +/- units should be posted since is is not close to accurate.
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#493

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UPDATED for 7/10/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 117-7-0; Profit: +102 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units, KC -8.5 units, COL -10.25 units, CLE -7 units. BOS -13.25 units, TEX -6.5 units)
Filtered System: 15-2-0; Profit: +3 units (TEX - 7.5 units)
5/2 chase: 3-2-0; profit: -30.30 units (TEX -25.5 units)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 82-41; 11-7
Game 2 (B) win = 19-23; 2-4; 2-3
Game 3 (C) win = 16-7; 2-2; 1-2

Labby
x-27-30-30
35-25-28-35
x-15-38-26

Labby filtered (changing to single line labby since there arent enough plays to justify a 3-line)
10-29-30-56-66

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(A) LAD -270/-115 to win 30 -- play RL

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
none

5/2
none
Last edited by on3; 07-10-14 at 03:44 PM.
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#494

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UPDATED for 7/11/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 117-7-0; Profit: +102 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units, KC -8.5 units, COL -10.25 units, CLE -7 units. BOS -13.25 units, TEX -6.5 units)
Filtered System: 15-2-0; Profit: +3 units (TEX - 7.5 units)
5/2 chase: 3-2-0; profit: -30.30 units (TEX -25.5 units)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 82-42; 11-7
Game 2 (B) win = 19-23; 2-4; 2-3
Game 3 (C) win = 16-7; 2-2; 1-2

Labby
26-26-26-26
35-25-35-55
x-15-38-26

Labby filtered (changing to single line labby since there arent enough plays to justify a 3-line)
36-39-36-40-40

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(B) LAD -140 to win 55
(A) SF -155 to win 26
(A) CLE -220/-105 to win 26 -- play RL
(A) COL -158 to win 26
(A) TB -142 to win 26 ** possible play

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
(A) COL -158 to win 40

5/2
none
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