Good stuff On3. The JM MLB system is having a great year also. Let's keep it rolling.Originally Posted by on3
btw, this is the best the system has performed in the last 3 years. truly remarkable especially with this type of volume.
do you mind if i ask what this system is? Or where it can be found?good stuff on3. The jm mlb system is having a great year also. Let's keep it rolling.
Just search john Morrison under mlb threads
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-b...lb-thread.htmldo you mind if i ask what this system is? Or where it can be found?
What days do new series start on? Heard someone mention it before but i usually just check the games every day. feel like im wasting time.
majority start monday and friday. but series' can start tuesday or thursday as well.What days do new series start on? Heard someone mention it before but i usually just check the games every day. feel like im wasting time.
Really like the results for this year so far. just some thoughts. Is there a site that has past series prices. I think that a good filter for this is to look at the overall series price as well.
Because a team might have their ace pitching in Game 1 and get a good price of -160 , but then have 2 bums pitch game 2 and 3. They would be a play given this system yet they might have been the dog at the series price. I always look at series prices because that tells me I can expect a team to be favored in at least 2 of the 3 games.
Sure this looks great at 101-5 , and may not need to be polished. But It might just turn for the worst or have bad results next year. Just looking for ways to refine this, thats all.
Barstool - I posted the same thought a few pages back. For instance, I laid off the Indians series loss a few weeks back because I believe Detroit was favored in the series (or it might have been even). I have been watching series prices, and set my marker at -200. I believe there has only been one series that lost since I started tracking (Giants series where they blew saves in first two games of the series against the Rockies).
If anyone does backtest or find past series prices please post. last year even though it profited thanks to the labby would be good year to backtest. just remember it may lower the variance but will also lower the profits because of less plays depending on how you bet of course.
UPDATED for 6/30/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 101-5-0; Profit: +82.5 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units, KC -8.5 units, COL -10.25 units, CLE -7 units)
Filtered System: 13-1-0; Profit: +10 units
5/2 chase: 1-1-0; profit: -11.80 units
Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 69-37; 11-3
Game 2 (B) win = 17-20; 1-2; 1-1
Game 3 (C) win = 15-5; 1-1; 0-1
Labby
15-15-15-15
28-25-24-23
20-20-20-20
Labby filtered (changing to single line labby since there arent enough plays to justify a 3-line)
10-10-10-10
Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(A) BOS -155 to win 30 (series -170)
(A) WAS-220/-105 to win 30 -- play RL (series -330)
(A) ATL -164 to win 30 (series -240)
Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
(A) BAL -143 **potential play to win 20 (series -180)
5/2
none
Last edited by on3; 06-30-14 at 05:36 PM.
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Thanks for including series price, on3. Should be interesting to follow.
JM - I spent some time looking (but not too much) and was unable to find historic series prices.
BOS is currently a play as well at -148. DET should also be watched....currently at -140.
Tried to give points but would not let me. Good call on adding the series price. Prime is correct I think this might stop some off us from walking off a cliff. lol
Thanks again on3
I wonder if there is some site that has series prices listed from the past. I wonder how this would stand up if it was filtered on the series price alone. Instead of game 1 @ -145 , how would this perform if it were the series price of -145 or better.
A good example of this is the LAD today. Heavy favorites in the series at -170, yet are listed as dogs today. A real good 2 game chase will be them on Game 2 and 3. Because that is precisely what the line is indicating.
I like this system. Will have to give it a shot. Thanks for everything, on3.
