on3's MLB 2014 Opening Day System Thread

Lets hope ARz plays slow pitch against COL. Freaking pathetic 6 run inning in the 8th. This game is a damn roller coaster.

I know its a blind system, but just curious what people think of the C bet tomorrow. Looks like COL has a better pitcher and home field. Only if they can play a little defense... Will there be any change from todays game? I am going to have at least 6u on them tomorrow, so looking for a boost of confidence it will work out alright.

Originally Posted by J.M. Disciple

Lets hope ARz plays slow pitch against COL. Freaking pathetic 6 run inning in the 8th. This game is a damn roller coaster.

I know its a blind system, but just curious what people think of the C bet tomorrow. Looks like COL has a better pitcher and home field. Only if they can play a little defense... Will there be any change from todays game? I am going to have at least 6u on them tomorrow, so looking for a boost of confidence it will work out alright.

That is the problem with these blind systems. It doesn't take into account losing and winning streaks which are a real tangible part of baseball. The old philosophy is you never wager on a team in the middle of a large losing slump or conversely you should wager on a streaking team. Confidence is a huge part of baseball and those last two losses at home, particularly tonight has to destroy Colorado's bullpen/pitching confidence, not to mention losing a very important all-star in Cargo. So after all that being said, I personally would be very nervous betting on a team that has lost 6 or 7 st8 and who has just been completely destroyed at home. Good luck boys. I'll be sitting this one out.

UPDATED for 6/5/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 71-3-0; Profit: +59.5 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units, KC -8.5 units)
Filtered System: 7-0-0; Profit: +7 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 48-27; 6-1
Game 2 (B) win = 12-15; 0-2; 0-1
Game 3 (C) win = 11-3; 1-0; 0-0

Labby
30-25-x-23
45-45-48-52
20-30-20-55

Labby filtered (changing to single line labby since there arent enough plays to justify a 3-line)
10-10-10-10-31-51

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(C) COL -128 to win 75

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
(C) COL -128 to win 61

5/2
COL -128 to win 165 (2 units + yesterdays loss)

fun day yesterday, right fellas?? i thought id take a moment to remind a lot of the new guys in here to please remember to bet within your limits. you may not think a $20 unit is much, but once the series' get longer it builds up. if you cannot afford the (C) bet, DONT BET IT. if you cannot afford this system, DONT PLAY IT. please remember to manage your bankroll. if you started playing the system late, you dont have the cushion that we Day 1 players have.

with that said, enjoy the game tonight.

I would just change it from B to C on3.

AND arz has now scored 13 runs in 3 innings against COL. Picking right up where they left off late last night. Kiss my 11.5 units at risk on them good bye. Just wish there were more series to help balance out this loss. That or if I only played them once instead of following 3 systems all of which had them. That is six losses for me... Still first inning but already 2-0 and guys still on base I am not confident in this team at all.

WE HAVE A CHANCE 7-6! BASES LOAD BOTTOM OF THE 7TH COMMON ROCKS!

Thank goodness for Live bets on spurs. Huge 4th quarter to put me back in the green; now just looking for the rocks to really boost my week. Either up 4u or up around 12u if they win.

This loss really Hurt. Hoppas for some New plays today to recover a bit

There will be plays today. TEX and LAA (most likely -1.5) are definitely plays. CIN, TB and SF are all close at the moment.

I know this doesn't really fit in with a blind system, but I am wondering if Rockies home games should have a higher number in order to be a filtered play. I was thinking of this the last time they came up as filtered (although they won that time). This would essentially be a park adjustment factor.

sf line seems to be dropping and I really can not understand how TB keeps being a favorite on a 10 game losing streak. If tB magically becomes a play I will be fading them still. Team is almost as bad as Philly this week.

Originally Posted by Primet76

I know this doesn't really fit in with a blind system, but I am wondering if Rockies home games should have a higher number in order to be a filtered play. I was thinking of this the last time they came up as filtered (although they won that time). This would essentially be a park adjustment factor.

Hard to backtest individual teams with a higher filtered number then others. Its hard enough getting enough filtred plays in this season then to increase it. I always wanted to look at -200 favorites as the opening A game, but have not got around to backtesting it yet. Would definitely take out a lot of plays, but would be easier to avoid some line movment and would not have keep checking the lines.

Originally Posted by Primet76

I know this doesn't really fit in with a blind system, but I am wondering if Rockies home games should have a higher number in order to be a filtered play. I was thinking of this the last time they came up as filtered (although they won that time). This would essentially be a park adjustment factor.

COL does have a higher o/u than other parks, but still, they have given us two filtered wins (I believe) and this loss. No need to overreact, the system takes an L on a filtered about 6% of the time. We took this one on the chin, but hey, it happens. The fact that there was a system loss on 5/28 and one so soon after is more frustrating. Back at it...

unit count:
Regular = +59.5 + 3.5 units added + 3 units added + 4 units added - 24.5 sitting on the line = +45.5 units
Filtered = +7 + 2 units added - 10 units on line = -1 unit
5/2 = -16.8 units
total = +27.7 units

UPDATED for 6/6/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 71-4-0; Profit: +45.5 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units, KC -8.5 units, -10.25 units)
Filtered System: 7-1-0; Profit: -1 units
5/2 chase: 0-1-0; profit: -16.80 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 48-27; 6-1
Game 2 (B) win = 12-15; 0-2; 0-1
Game 3 (C) win = 11-4; 1-1; 0-1

Labby (24.5 units on line)
30-30-33-33
45-45-48-52
40-40-48-45

Labby filtered (changing to single line labby since there arent enough plays to justify a 3-line)
10-10-10-10-31-51-78
shuffle
28-28-30-30-30-38-18

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(A) TEX -164 to win 30
(A) LAA -195/+110 to win 33 -- play RL
(A) TOR -150 to win 30
(A) SF -140 to win 30** possible play
(A) CIN -140 to win 30** possible play
(A) TB -137 to win 33**possible play

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
(A) TOR -150 to win 46

5/2
none

toronto just got steamed, looks like it'll be a play. just updated the post. 3 possible plays as well.