Thats for tracking purposes only. Makes it easier for everyone to follow.Originally Posted by Trivial
Maybe, I'm just not understanding. I thought he did place the bet when he listed it as -145 to win 36 ?
So how can you differentiate between a potential bet, vs. a bet that was placed? Thanks very much for your help.Thats for tracking purposes only. Makes it easier for everyone to follow.
LAA is tonights pick..if the line closes at -145 or higher then place a wager on it. Check 5dimes for the line.So how can you differentiate between a potential bet, vs. a bet that was placed? Thanks very much for your help.
LAA -142 on 5Dimes right now
I am seeing -143 on covers... I should of waited.... UNLESS IT WINS! HAHAHA Good luck to those who got it in. Should be an unofficial wager.
LAA -137 at 5Dimes at game time. WOW!
intriguing stuff here...think i'm up to speed, save one important issue...
the important criterion for "official-ness" (the need to close at at least a -145 favorite)...
could we all be made aware of an unambiguous refinement of that requirement for example such as "at 5d, as it appears on
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/money-line at exactly 10 minutes before the official scheduled start of the game"
asking that the price meet/exceed the -145 threshold at each and every book at the specified "very near closing" time at which the crucial "play or pass" decision must be made is asking a lot and increases the probability of a technical glitch in odds-reporting with another book leading to confusion and much "gnashing of teeth" with some getting in/others left out (correctly or incorrectly...profitably or catastrophically...with all the elation and anger and name-calling that would unleash)
i suggest the refined definition of meeting/exceeding the stated -145 threshold be chosen from among the following options
1. as stated at 5d, at an exact # of specified minutes before the game's starting time
2. as stated at pinnacle, at an # of specified minutes before the game's starting time
3. as stated at at least one of 5d OR pinnacle, at an # of specified minutes before the game's starting time
4. as stated simultaneously at both 5d AND pinnacle, at an # of specified minutes before the game's starting time
____________
i'm not trying to open a can of worms here...the decision as to exactly how to clearly specify the "official or not" requirements in a way that all can be sure, even when the line is in the "borderline" range such as tonight should be left to the OP...
on3, much appreciation for the herculean effort you've already put into developing this project...but one small yet crucial thing need be done to avoid an armageddon of confusion-driven pissed-offedness...
please state which book or books will be referred to and exactly how many minutes before official starting time of the game will be used to classify the game as "official" or not (the start times stated on the sbr-odds page will do nicely and any system-follower need only subtract the required number of minutes from it to know exactly when to check in and find out)...
then all followers will be on the same page and know exactly "when" and "what books" to check for the simple "a -145 or larger favorite" condition...and a Morisson-type disaster of confusion over whether the big C-play was "official or not" can be avoided
Last edited by fitguy67; 05-15-14 at 10:37 PM.
@fitguy67 if the lines are close across the books then 5Dimes is used. There was no confusion about tonights game. 5Dimes had the line dropping 10 mins before start of game so it was clear that it wasn't going to be a play.
so, could we say the criterion for official would be based on
*the ML-price at 5dimes as it appears on sbr-odds
*at exactly 10 minutes before the official start of game (as it is registered as sbr-odds)
______________
i'm not trying to be a trouble maker...quite the contrary...Murphy's Law has a way to make something ambiguous arise late in the season on a monster game-C...what would appear clearly a go for some would appear clearly a no-go to others...then the fur and feathers will fly...all unnecessarily
with an additional bold-faced sentence (such as what i've featued above) stating exactly what book(s)' price(s) at exactly what time time relative to the game's official start...all ambiguity evaporates
study the history of Morisson's service and the multiple controversies that have arisen over his lack of clarity as to what qualifiied/disqualified a play (so that he could later classify it apparently-plausibly in whatever way suited him best...)
he left (and probably continues to leave) a few simple-yet-key things deliberately vague...we don't have to...
if *5dimes as the official reference and
*10minutes prior to official game-start
work for you...it's fine by me...but it should NOT be left vague
Last edited by fitguy67; 05-15-14 at 11:19 PM.
It's a winner! But man it was hairy.
Definitely very lucky with LAA tonight for an unofficial 2u profit for me because I played both systems.
I would go further in then just 10minutes when games are that close. I would wait maybe just 2 minutes before game time to see the 5d line. Also with regards to it being a big C bet or big B bet, only the -145 line matters on the A bets, so less to worry about. It is a labby though, so it is possible for the A bets to be big as well.
Thanks. I get it now.LAA is tonights pick..if the line closes at -145 or higher then place a wager on it. Check 5dimes for the line.
For today so far we have TEX and COL. Keep a watch on WSH & NYY.
It's not vague at all. FINAL line at 5dimes seems pretty clear to me. Your comparison to Morrison is just ludicrous. Morrison uses the best line on every book ay ANY time of the day as his line to bet, that is not happening here. Apparently on3's backtests were performed using the FINAL lines at 5dimes, which means all future plays for the system, if derived correctly, should come from the same source at the same point in time. You can't just change the system lines for convenience, since there are no backtested results to say how system would have performed on games deemed official 10 minutes before close. Some of the biggest line movements happen a few minutes before close, quite often. Sometimes you are on teams when you shouldn't be and sometimes you'll miss plays, that's the breaks. But as far as determining OFFICIAL system plays, he is doing it correctly, unlike Morrison who deliberately keeps it vague to pad his stats. The rules say -145 and over at close. If you are not comfortable with that, then personally change it to -155 and over for your personal bets. They would all still be considered official plays anyway. You'll miss some of the lower line games, but you will no longer have to worry about betting on a team that is unofficial. For me, I am fine with it the way it is, and really don't want to see him start taking OFFICIAL game lines at a different point in time, or from a different site, then the ones used in his backtest.so, could we say the criterion for official would be based on
*the ML-price at 5dimes as it appears on sbr-odds
*at exactly 10 minutes before the official start of game (as it is registered as sbr-odds)
______________
i'm not trying to be a trouble maker...quite the contrary...Murphy's Law has a way to make something ambiguous arise late in the season on a monster game-C...what would appear clearly a go for some would appear clearly a no-go to others...then the fur and feathers will fly...all unnecessarily
with an additional bold-faced sentence (such as what i've featued above) stating exactly what book(s)' price(s) at exactly what time time relative to the game's official start...all ambiguity evaporates
study the history of Morisson's service and the multiple controversies that have arisen over his lack of clarity as to what qualifiied/disqualified a play (so that he could later classify it apparently-plausibly in whatever way suited him best...)
he left (and probably continues to leave) a few simple-yet-key things deliberately vague...we don't have to...
if *5dimes as the official reference and
*10minutes prior to official game-start
work for you...it's fine by me...but it should NOT be left vague
** Note: This whole post is based on the assumption that on3 did use final lines at 5dimes for his backtest. If not, then I would have to agree with you that there is no point for any uncertainty at close.
Last edited by Wallco99; 05-16-14 at 10:11 AM.
thanks to mantorros, JM, and wallco for clarifying a few key things...in the end, we are responsible for managing our own accounts and play submissions and anything we ultimately do (mindfully or mistakenly) becomes de facto "official" for us...and spreading out the accumulated loss-backlog into a lab-line matrix makes the consequences of a slip-up one way or the other less earth-shattering...we've either "unofficially" lightened or heavied the $-burden remaining in our lab-matrix...but, one way or another, those lines will be with us all season, guiding our bet-sizes anyhow...divergences from some theoretical definition of "official" ultimately don't matter over the course of a season...just one more/less chunk of $ that the lines tell us must be cleared with future wins...
got it...thanks guyz
Last edited by fitguy67; 05-16-14 at 09:11 AM.
