The -145 line is what was backtested. From what I've seen, -145 in MLB is like -4 in the NBA or -6 in the NFL. Lines where oddsmakers have designated a clear favorite. I have no stats to back this up, this is just from my years of wagering.
2nd half seems to falter because lines become very inflated in the MLB, so too many teams qualify for plays. Bad teams get -160 lines if they are anywhere near playoff contention or have a decent pitcher on the mound. Division leaders routinely get -260 to -300 lines and losses in a series like that really crush the bankroll.
Last edited by on3; 03-31-14 at 11:57 AM.
Nice 5-0 start. Thanks
Checking in, started following this system last year and it was a thrill!
UPDATED for 4/1/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 5-0-0; Profit: +5 units
Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units
Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 5-0; 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
REGULAR FOR 4/1/2014
none
Filtered
none
5/2
none
what is the difference between your "regular" and "filtered" systems?
Thanks
GL this season buddy i'll be watching
I am intrigued. I will be following this season.
Im looking:
Basic rules -- if HOME team A is favored by -145 or greater in game1 of their series, they are a play. 3 game chase. A few filters:
It was shown to be profitable to play a 5/2 system, the 5/2 is indicating the units bet to win the series. The trigger is when a filtered play loses the (A) game.
No 2-game series' should be played.
After the all-star break, teams must meet either the overall .500 record test or the home record over .500 test.
Odds > -190 should be played on the RL.
The O/U 9 filter has a very strong historical record.
Last year finished at around +100 units, most of which came during the first half of the season. The second half of the season is always a treading water situation.
Here is last years thread: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-betting/2270068-on3s-mlb-2013-opening-day-system-thread.html
Please point out where it says the difference between regular and filtered