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on3's MLB 2014 Opening Day System Thread

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#17

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Quote Originally Posted by MickChunky View Post
What is the rule for the O/U 9 filter?
Games in which the home team is at -145 or higher and the O/U is at 9 or higher have shown a very strong win percentage for the favorite to win a game in a 3 or 4 game series.
Last edited by on3; 03-31-14 at 11:56 AM.
#18

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Quote Originally Posted by Grinder12000 View Post
So, what is the basic logic behind this system anyway. Why -145 and not -140 and why do you think it starts to fail in the 2nd half.

Just curious. really!
The -145 line is what was backtested. From what I've seen, -145 in MLB is like -4 in the NBA or -6 in the NFL. Lines where oddsmakers have designated a clear favorite. I have no stats to back this up, this is just from my years of wagering.

2nd half seems to falter because lines become very inflated in the MLB, so too many teams qualify for plays. Bad teams get -160 lines if they are anywhere near playoff contention or have a decent pitcher on the mound. Division leaders routinely get -260 to -300 lines and losses in a series like that really crush the bankroll.
Last edited by on3; 03-31-14 at 11:57 AM.
#23

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Quote Originally Posted by knugen View Post
Nice 5-0 start. Thanks
any shmuck can pick the five biggest favorites on the board and win, right? let's see what happens in the coming weeks. there is always one pitfall in the first two weeks, i'm still treading lightly.

​NO PLAYS TODAY
#24

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UPDATED for 4/1/2014
System(s) record Chase:

Regular system: 5-0-0; Profit: +5 units
Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 5-0; 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 4/1/2014
none

Filtered
none

5/2
none
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#29

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Quote Originally Posted by parlay100 View Post
you cant look at the top of the page?
Im looking:

Basic rules -- if HOME team A is favored by -145 or greater in game1 of their series, they are a play. 3 game chase. A few filters:

It was shown to be profitable to play a 5/2 system, the 5/2 is indicating the units bet to win the series. The trigger is when a filtered play loses the (A) game.
No 2-game series' should be played.

After the all-star break, teams must meet either the overall .500 record test or the home record over .500 test.
Odds > -190 should be played on the RL.
The O/U 9 filter has a very strong historical record.

Last year finished at around +100 units, most of which came during the first half of the season. The second half of the season is always a treading water situation.

Here is last years thread:
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-betting/2270068-on3s-mlb-2013-opening-day-system-thread.html


Please point out where it says the difference between regular and filtered
#30

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Quote Originally Posted by HowardRoark View Post
Im looking:

Basic rules -- if HOME team A is favored by -145 or greater in game1 of their series, they are a play. 3 game chase. A few filters:

It was shown to be profitable to play a 5/2 system, the 5/2 is indicating the units bet to win the series. The trigger is when a filtered play loses the (A) game.
No 2-game series' should be played.

After the all-star break, teams must meet either the overall .500 record test or the home record over .500 test.
Odds > -190 should be played on the RL.
The O/U 9 filter has a very strong historical record.

Last year finished at around +100 units, most of which came during the first half of the season. The second half of the season is always a treading water situation.

Here is last years thread:
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-betting/2270068-on3s-mlb-2013-opening-day-system-thread.html


Please point out where it says the difference between regular and filtered
Here you go: The O/U 9 filter has a very strong historical record.

Games with an O/U of 9 or above are "filtered" plays.
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