Originally Posted by
thelimit0310
4/2 Method
Not the Official system!
First off I would just like to acknowledge that the Opening Fav system is not broken. This has been stated by me and others and it's true - following On3's labby will give you success. I created this method for people who either do not want to go through the steps of managing a labby or are having trouble learning and wish to use an easier method that still gives great results. So, while long term this method may even produce a good amount more units than the labby way, (many seasons using 4/2 or the filtered 5/2 were +90 units) there is nothing wrong with using the labby. It is not my wish to detract from the work TheRizz and On3 have done, but rather to add to the pot they've created.
New Filters
There are 3 new filters added for this way-to-play. These filters must be used regardless of which variation of this method you use.
1. DO NOT play games that start before 4/25
2. DO NOT play games that start after 9/20 (this effectively makes your season 4/25-9/20 every year)
3. If you start a series and the B or C bet for the series in question has a line of -300 or more, it is best to either skip the series or play -runs. Even if you are mid series, it is best to just take the loss and stop. These high fav games didn't lose often or even frequently, but at that level the risk is no where near the reward.
Way-To-Play
There are 2 ways to play this method - the filtered or non-filtered way. Regardless of which way you choose you must use the 3 new filters mentioned above! YOU SKIP THE A BET IN THIS METHOD!
Filtered: This is the most efficient way to play. When an A game comes up, check to see if it passes the O/U filter of 9. Note this but skip the A bet! If the A bet loses, and the A game passed the O/U filter, then B and C bets are open for play. You would then bet to win 4 units on the B bet and if that loses then bet to win net 2 units on the C (that's recovering your lost units and then +2). If the C bet loses then the series is over as a loss.
The total unit count for this method was +444.77, an average of +55.6 units per season. Only 1 season in 8 backtested years went negative and even then only by -9 units. Not exactly a BR killer. This way is best for those who want clean, easy, consistent growth without hassle. Note: If your bankroll is a little larger, you should check out the 5/2 method.
Non-Filtered: This provides more total units than the filtered version (although less than the filtered 5/2) at the expense of more plays and more hassle with larger and more frequent losses. I would not recommend this way despite it winning more units, as it fluctuates too much. It lacks the easy and consistent growth of the filtered way. The only difference here is that you play any B or C game, the play does not need to pass the A bet O/U filter of 9. Though you still skip the A bet!
The total unit count for this method was +502.51, an average of +62.8 units per season. In this method 3seasons out of 8 went negative. Again while it does have a higher unit count you will have more trouble getting there, If you crave more units but want to keep efficiency check out the 5/2 method.
Variations
There are 2 variations to this method. The 5/2 method and the labby+ method. Both variations put more of your bankroll at risk but in turn have the potential to maximize your profit.
5/2 Filtered: The best way if you have a larger BR. It is best you only play 5/2 on games that pass the O/U filter of 9. I also recommend you only play this method if you have a larger bankroll and can handle the higher losses that come from it. The principle is still the same, just play to win 5 units on the B bet (only if the A bet loses and passes the O/U filter!) and net 2 on C. There is a 37.5% chance per season you will hit a loss that is over -30 units. But never in my backtests did a loss go over -40 and there was never more than 1 loss that cost that high. This is the best way to play if your BR can handle the ~7 extra units lost per loss.
The total unit count for this method was +531.8, an average of +66.5 units per season. Since this should only be used the filtered way, this method only had 1 losing season (just like the filtered way) and only by -11 units. Again, this is the absolute best way if you can handle the extra units per loss.
Labby+: This isn't so much a way to play as it is an add-on to the method itself. This variation capitalizes on the fact that the labby is still a great way to play this system. Essentially you play this method by playing A,B, and C games on the labby just as on3 does. But in addition also run the filtered way to play on the B and C games. Essentially having two different yet successful methods feeding off each other and giving you even more units without adding additional risk to either the labby or filtered 4/2. This variation is for those with bigger BRs who don't mind running the labby but at the same time wish to supplement it with the 4/2 method. Keep in mind you can have a large amount of money in play if the lines get bad on your labby.
Quick way-to-play summation (filtered way)
1. Check teams that are starting a 3 or more game homestand. See if they open at -145 or higher, note the O/U score.
2. If that A bet loses, and the O/U score was 9 or higher, it is now a play
3. On the B bet, place a wager to win 4 units
4. If the B bet loses, place a wager on the C bet to win net 2 units. Series is over after a win or C bet loss.
Special thanks to both TheRizz and On3
on3's MLB 2014 Opening Day System Thread
analyzer gave on3 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
