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#301

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We might have a "B" bet. We shall see. I am starting to regret some of my recent picks. I learned in the past, you can't have regrets. I need to rethink my picks and combinations. One thing is certain, I am focusing too much on the pitchers lately. I will make the mental adjustments and get better.

I believe this make you a better handicapper. You can make picks without worry because you feel you have so many chances. The pressure is off. This gives you plenty of time to make adjustments mentally on your picks. Right now, I need a subtle change of perspective on the match-ups and the combination of games.
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#304

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Quote Originally Posted by keel44 View Post
We might have a "B" bet. We shall see. I am starting to regret some of my recent picks. I learned in the past, you can't have regrets. I need to rethink my picks and combinations. One thing is certain, I am focusing too much on the pitchers lately. I will make the mental adjustments and get better.

I believe this make you a better handicapper. You can make picks without worry because you feel you have so many chances. The pressure is off. This gives you plenty of time to make adjustments mentally on your picks. Right now, I need a subtle change of perspective on the match-ups and the combination of games.
Keel totally agree with you on this concept. also good point the other day on my high priced selections, I tend not to like them either but it is a system and the numbers dictated it.

About your selections, I think you might benefit a bit more on semi correlated bets, for example taking the side along with its total. Rather than being correct about 2 entirely different games.

Like your Cleveland bet with its over, good choice. If for what reasons you base your side bet on, then apply the same logic as to how that translates into the total. Odds are if you were spot on with the side the total will fall into place as well.

This is how I tend to take heavy favorites on the ML rather than the RL with its Under instead, to bring down the odds. The logic is for example when C.Kershaw pitches the opposing pitcher has something to prove , even if they are crap. they tend to bring their very best against the best. So instead of taking the Dodgers on the RL I will Take them on the ML and the UNDER. SO a 2-1 result is a winner.

I think you should review all your previous sides and then make a hindsight 20/20 call on what you think would have been you total bet on that selection and see how your results would have improved.
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#305

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August 7

Parlay 17-B: Indians with Over 7.5 (0.91 to win 2.93)
Parlay 20-A: Mets +1.5 with White Sox (0.29 to win 0.87)
Parlay 21-A: Indians Over 7.5 with A's with Cardinals (0.29 to win 0.90)

Hey, no complaints. That's the way it is. I got tons o' chances. I probably got the whole month to make a 10 unit profit. I'll just keep firing away.

I am down -4.69 units. 0.31 going forward
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#306

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Barstool. You are indeed right and I started doing only that. My problem was, I was getting the underdog to win, but my total wouldn't hit. It was frustrating. I will keep zeroing in. I am only 2-21 in my parlays, and I have only lost 4.69 units. I am O.K. with that. I will start to worry when I am down 12 or so.
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#308

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Quote Originally Posted by keel44 View Post
Barstool. You are indeed right and I started doing only that. My problem was, I was getting the underdog to win, but my total wouldn't hit. It was frustrating. I will keep zeroing in. I am only 2-21 in my parlays, and I have only lost 4.69 units. I am O.K. with that. I will start to worry when I am down 12 or so.
Pocking favs I would generally look at the Over and Underdogs for the Under.
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#309

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amazing stats for this bet-sizing protocol so far

10-43, +20.48u = 75% of the 27.31u risked (note an average risk of only 0.52u)

almost all of the profit (+18.55u) coming from one "C" hit on the 29th play (before this was 6-22, after which an ice-cold 3-21)

despite an overall hit-rate of just 18.9% that's very poor vs the 23.3% implied by the overall avg price of +330 (27.31u risked was targeting 90.13u) the yield remains at a super-healthy 75% even after this terrible sub-15% drought on the last 24 plays

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everything comes down to whether or not we hit (even very rarely) the odd "C" bet we generate...just the one we hit in the first 53 plays is enough to much more than offset a crappy well-below implied hit rate...

seems like one "C" hit may be enough to offset (aka. "finance") a hundred or more pulls on the parlay machine...

but just as yields for single-play video poker always come down to the frequency of royal-flushes...here everything hinges on getting the next "C" hit before the thankfully-slow erosion of units wears the bank down...

...it also appears that a few B-hits might help out quite a bit as well (just as 4oK's in vid-poker help the player substantially to bide his time waiting for the RF)...2 of the 6 hits before the big-C hit on #29 were back-2-back B's on #26/27 and this was enough to nicely reverse the yield from negative to positive...more on this below

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this is a hi-variance method...BUT a lo-betsize method...we've risked just 27units over 53 plays...the hi-variance part shows up in a good way...the ability to reverse the accumulated unit-erosion of dozens of crappy days with just a short burst of good results...

after which the "lo-betsize" part kicks in to resist the subsequent erosion (hopefully till another blast of positive variance arrives and gets magnified by the "hi-variance" part)...rinse/lather/repeat...

like this...
after #25 (4-21). yield= -34.84% = -3.93/ 11.28
after #26 (B-win) yield = +10.01% = +1.28 / 12.79
after #27 (B-win) yield = +39.94% = +5.62 / 14.07
after #28 (A-loss) yield = +35.79% = +5.19 / 14.5
after #29 (C-win) yield = +117.99% = +23.74 / 20.12
...
after #53 (10-43) yield = +74.99% = +20.48 / 27.31

...where to next?

that's where the fun comes in...and it doesn't cost too much to stay strapped in for the "very likely profitable...but if not...we got more than our sport-betting money's worth" ride


lotsa small-risk plays with a few big-payout plays = a good way to pass the MLB days
Last edited by fitguy67; 08-08-14 at 02:20 PM.
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#310

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You did a real nice post for me Fitguy67.

One could think of it like the reverse of a 6 game martingale type chase. Instead of chasing to win 1 out of 6, you gotta win 6 in a row. The extra bonus here is it does not have to be in a row exactly, you can take some more attempts in between presses. Also, you do chase the scenario of winning 6 in a row. You have the best of both worlds -- the benefits of pressing and the benefits of chasing.
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#312

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yeah...i think aiming for 20% per "project" as you've setteled into now is just about perfect...

50 unit Bank...target 10 units which is 20% of bank...starting play 1/50th of that target = 1/5th unit (or 0.20u...where each unit is 2% or 1/50th of Bank)......nice n' symmetrical (all 0's, 1's, 2s and 5's)...all the fibonacci numbers except 3 (which is covered by the number of consecutive times you gotta hit to successfully finish the project)...

estimating the target jackpot to be 50x the starting play is closer to whatever it actually might turn out to be than 48x (which i understand is based on hitting 3 consecutive plays at EXACTLY the MINIMUM +300 odds after holding back the first play's stake)...BUT 50 is so much more elegant here in that "perfect fit" kind of way
Last edited by fitguy67; 08-08-14 at 10:37 PM.
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#314

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now 3-25 since last C-hit (an 11% rate on plays with a book rate we're paying for of 23%) ...the universe officially "owes" us some joy...and we "deserve" it cuz we've been SO reasonable in our expectations and SO patient...

whatever plays you select for this project keel, it's ultimately up to this fooking universe/multi-verse to line up the unfoldng of things in such a way that puts a higher rate of "Ws" in general (...and at least one "WWW" string in particular) into our reality

gluk2us2moro
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#315

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August 9

Parlay 26-A: Indians with Angels -1.5 (0.33 to win 1.00)
Parlay 27-A: Reds -1.5 with Phillies Over 7 (0.33 to win 1.25)
Parlay 28-A: Phillies -1.5 with Reds Under 8 (0.33 to win 1.00)
Parlay 29-A: Padres with Brewers Under 7.5 (0.33 to win 1.19)
Parlay 30-A: Brewers with Padres Over 7 (0.33 to win 1.03)
Last edited by keel44; 08-09-14 at 11:56 AM. Reason: added playz
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