ML000 MLB Picks, Mon. 9/28/09
Good morning, everyone:
This is my first post on this forum (clearly). Educated picks. Good luck.
- Boston Red Sox, ML
Boston Red Sox have a chance to clinch a berth in the postseason as soon as Monday night. The Red Sox (91-64) have a good shot at a victory if Josh Beckett (16-6, 3.79 ERA) can continue his late September surge.
Beckett earned his second straight win Wednesday night at Kansas City, allowing two runs over six innings. He also struck out seven for the second consecutive outing and scattered 12 hits while lowering his ERA to 2.84 over his last three starts.
Blue Jays, they have lost 15 of Scott Richmond’s last 20 starts, and all three of his career appearances against the Red Sox. Richmond (7-10, 5.32) gave up five runs over five innings in his only start this season against the Red Sox.
The Blue Jays are 28-47 on the road and have lost four straight there. Toronto has suffered a pair of three-game sweeps at Fenway, most recently Aug. 28-30. That series launched a 10-game home win streak for the Red Sox. That run ended Sept. 17 against Los Angeles, but they are 13-2 at Fenway since Aug. 24.
Boston sends a great pitcher who’s going through a September surge in Beckett, while Toronto hands the ball to Richmond, who doesn’t have the best record against Boston, let alone his last two dozen starts.
The Jays have also been swept twice by the Sox this season, compounded with the fact that the Jays hold a less than desirable road record. Also, the Sox are nasty at home. Seems like a solid chance for a Boston victory.
- Philadelphia Phillies, ML
Playing Houston Astros; Astros starting pitcher is Wilton Lopez (0-0, 8.44).
Lopez has made six relief appearances since being recalled from Double-A Corpus Christi on Aug. 28. The right-hander, who will face Philadelphia for the first time, has allowed two unearned runs and seven hits in three innings over his last two games.
He was 4-5 with a 4.73 ERA in 29 games - 15 starts - with Corpus Christi.
Mediocre pitcher in Double-A, translating into a poor first time pitcher in the big leagues. First start of his career, great shot of the Phillie’s hitting off him BIG TIME.
- Tampa Bay Ray, ML
The Orioles are winless in former Rays pitcher Mark Hendrickson’s four road starts, in which Hendrickson (5-5, 4.37) is 0-3 with a 5.03 ERA. The left-hander is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in three starts this season against Tampa Bay and 3-5 with a 5.33 ERA in 10 career starts.
Jeff Niemann (12-6, 3.81 ERA) pitching for Tampa Bay, decent producing rookie pitcher.
Poor road pitcher, decent home pitcher. That fact compounded with a bad Orioles offense seems to mean a probable win for Tampa Bay.
- New York Yankees//Kansas City Royals UNDER TOTAL POINTS
With nothing to play for the final week, Girardi is expected to rest many of his starters in the final six games. It’s unclear how much time captain Derek Jeter will see as he concludes a terrific season.
The Yankees are sitting many of their starters, and the Royals have horrible offense, so this seems to be setting up for a fairly low scoring game.
Good Luck! 
