mlb chase 2013

- LAA/Bos game will be played 2 times today.Will have another game on the game2, depends on the outcome of game1.

08.06.2013

S1

(B Bet) Col fade: San Diego 2,51 0,662u | San Diego - no line up atm

S2

(C Bet) KC fade:Minnesota 2,33 0,752u | Houston 3,11 0,83u | Houston 2,70 1,519u
(B Bet) LAA: LA Angels 2,26 0,794u | LA Angels - no line up atm (game1)
(A Bet) Pit fade: Cubs 1,847 1,18u

S3

(A Bet) LAA fade: Boston - no line up atm (game1)

P3

(D Bet) M.Bumgarner: SF 1,943 1,06u | SF 1,877 2,349u | SF 2,32 3,34u | SF - waiting on lione movement
(A Bet) M.Bumgarner fade: Arizona 1,917 1,09u
(A Bet) C.Wilson fade: Boston - no line up atm (game2)
(A Bet) M.Latos: Cincinnati 1,649 1,54u


________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

Nice work Exrok. The one problem is that win rates dontmreallyntell the whole story. For instance, S1 game three COULD be 88 games all at -250.

the average line is -145 so you could factor that.

plus, you really need some paragraphs. LOL

What happened with the Colorado fade against Cincinnati?

Did that get dropped since it was played with starting pitchers?

- a few lines updated.

08.06.2013

S1

(B Bet) Col fade: San Diego 2,51 0,662u | San Diego 2,20 1,385u

S2

(C Bet) KC fade:Minnesota 2,33 0,752u | Houston 3,11 0,83u | Houston 2,70 1,519u
(B Bet) LAA: LA Angels 2,26 0,794u | LA Angels 2,36 1,319u
(A Bet) Pit fade: Cubs 1,847 1,18u

S3

(A Bet) LAA fade: Boston 1,676 1,48u

P3

(D Bet) M.Bumgarner: SF 1,943 1,06u | SF 1,877 2,349u | SF 2,32 3,34u | SF - waiting on lione movement
(A Bet) M.Bumgarner fade: Arizona 1,917 1,09u
(A Bet) C.Wilson fade: Boston 1,694 1,44u
(A Bet) M.Latos: Cincinnati 1,649 1,54u


________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

Originally Posted by DocZ

What happened with the Colorado fade against Cincinnati?

Did that get dropped since it was played with starting pitchers?

Colorado fade on the road. B bet on 17.06.2013.

Thanks Stifler, I was lost!

- SF line added + S3 LAA fade moves to B bet

08.06.2013

S1

(B Bet) Col fade: San Diego 2,51 0,662u | San Diego 2,20 1,385u

S2

(C Bet) KC fade:Minnesota 2,33 0,752u | Houston 3,11 0,83u | Houston 2,70 1,519u
(B Bet) LAA: LA Angels 2,26 0,794u | LA Angels 2,36 1,319u
(A Bet) Pit fade: Cubs 1,847 1,18u

S3

(B Bet) LAA fade: Boston 1,676 1,48u | Boston 1,61 4,066u

P3

(D Bet) M.Bumgarner: SF 1,943 1,06u | SF 1,877 2,349u | SF 2,32 3,34u | SF 1,99 7,827u
(A Bet) M.Bumgarner fade: Arizona 1,917 1,09u
(A Bet) C.Wilson fade: Boston 1,694 1,44u
(A Bet) M.Latos: Cincinnati 1,649 1,54u


________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

Stifler,

Are you playing SF or Arizona on today's match?

Originally Posted by Stifler

08.06.2013

S1

(B Bet) Col fade: San Diego 2,51 0,662u | San Diego 2,20 1,385u

S2

(C Bet) KC fade:Minnesota 2,33 0,752u | Houston 3,11 0,83u | Houston 2,70 1,519u
(B Bet) LAA: LA Angels 2,26 0,794u | LA Angels 2,36 1,319u
(A Bet) Pit fade: Cubs 1,847 1,18u

S3

(B Bet) LAA fade: Boston 1,676 1,48u | Boston 1,61 4,066u

P3

(D Bet) M.Bumgarner: SF 1,943 1,06u | SF 1,877 2,349u | SF 2,32 3,34u | SF 1,99 7,827u
(A Bet) M.Bumgarner fade: Arizona 1,917 1,09u
(A Bet) C.Wilson fade: Boston 1,694 1,44u
(A Bet) M.Latos: Cincinnati 1,649 1,54u

records:
S1: W 20 | L 0 (+20,00 units)
S2: W 15 | L 1 (-5,909 units)
S3: W 101 | L 4 (-21,102 units)
P1: W 13 | L 1 (+4,971 units)
P2: W 16 | L 1 (+3,676 units)
P3: W 17 | L 0 (+17,00 units)


pending:
- P3 J.Vargas fade, C Bet on next start on the road
- P2 J.Guthrie fade, C Bet on next start
- P3 M.Scherzer, B Bet on next start on the road
- P3 B.Norris fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- P3 G.Gonzalez, B Bet on next start on the road
- P3 M.Bumgarner fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- S2 Phil fade, D Bet on 17.06.2013
- S1 Col fade, B Bet on 17.06.2013
- S2 KC fade, D Bet on 09.06.2013
- S2 Pit fade, B Bet on 09.06.2013


________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

Originally Posted by jesramos

Stifler,

Are you playing SF or Arizona on today's match?

im always playing both sides...

@ExeRok

I do like the idea of making some live changing during the season, if the spot looks uncomfortable. Still its not easy to make the decision right before the series starts. Ofc its easy coming in afterwards talking about what u should have done in those situations. Honestly taking out the Hou fade series. A+B Bet was lost on Colorado, C+D bet on LAA. To be honest LAA looks like getting hot at the moment winning alot over a span of like 12 games. The only reason skipping them would be on the high odds, cause they seem to be playable in this situation, especially playing @ home vs houston.
If i dont like a spot or if its getting to juicy im always keeping a parlay in mind, cause i feel i can pick a good soccer spot with small odds. The Spain U21 game would have been a winner on the D bet lately aswell. So what im trying to say is, the whole system has basic rules, but if i feel its needed im going to make adjustments or changings. All that matters is making money for the season.

I dont like the point with the single bets. Ofc u picked out the best records for the system and live season, but those stats will even long run.

Thats just my point of view. I dont wanna start an endless discussion here...

09.06.2013

S2

(D Bet) KC fade:Min 2,33 0,752u | Hou 3,11 0,83u | Hou 2,70 1,519u | Houston - waiting on line movement
(B Bet) Pit fade: Cubs 1,847 1,18u | Cubs 2,08 2,019u


________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

- Houston line added.

09.06.2013

S2

(D Bet) KC fade:Min 2,33 0,752u | Hou 3,11 0,83u | Hou 2,70 1,519u | Houston 2,56 2,629u
(B Bet) Pit fade: Cubs 1,847 1,18u | Cubs 2,08 2,019u


________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

Originally Posted by Stifler

@ExeRok

I do like the idea of making some live changing during the season, if the spot looks uncomfortable. Still its not easy to make the decision right before the series starts. Ofc its easy coming in afterwards talking about what u should have done in those situations. Honestly taking out the Hou fade series. A+B Bet was lost on Colorado, C+D bet on LAA. To be honest LAA looks like getting hot at the moment winning alot over a span of like 12 games. The only reason skipping them would be on the high odds, cause they seem to be playable in this situation, especially playing @ home vs houston.
If i dont like a spot or if its getting to juicy im always keeping a parlay in mind, cause i feel i can pick a good soccer spot with small odds. The Spain U21 game would have been a winner on the D bet lately aswell. So what im trying to say is, the whole system has basic rules, but if i feel its needed im going to make adjustments or changings. All that matters is making money for the season.

I dont like the point with the single bets. Ofc u picked out the best records for the system and live season, but those stats will even long run.

Thats just my point of view. I dont wanna start an endless discussion here...

Many of the points you mentioned, I already mentioned too. But since we are 2 foreigners talking, it's hard to fully understand each other
Whole purpose of my post was to make suggestion about how to improve your main goal of "making money for the season". Nothing more. Forget single bets, it's just part of my routine and not an alternative of any kind. As I mentioned before they were not checked with odds, so it can be -EV to bet even the 70+% ones. But 70% of right side can be usefull information, that's why I posted those stats. And this is not the case of bashing after result is known. Again I wrote that if there was 1 lose to date, nobody would even care about prices. But losses happened with LA, and I'm sure there are some more "overpriced Angels" left in the system, other than actual Angels.
! So skipping cause of odds was my whole point. System is built around getting enough winners, while minimizing losses. And in some way, one more of it's purposes is to not care about the price, because it's to win 1u for chase. Losses always happen eventually, and that's when prices make their appearance. So between system producing sides, and actually putting them into play there is space for improvement on system's perfomance. You wait for line movements, re-evaluate single series, add parlays as a part of it, so you know what proccess I'm talking about. This is where "filtering by price" should happen (or list of teams should be made before season). This is where you care more about risked unites, that the fact that you actually play Angels in poor form. To hell with their form and judging after the fact. Royals were in an equally bad streak, but their series lost only 15u. Angels on last game alone were 30+. In a long run KC will lose more than Angels, but they won't need forever to break even for their personal +/- units record in systems. And with purpose being "making money this season" you can earn those 15u lost on Kansas in 2 days, nobody would even sweat about it. So I hope the point about neccesity and where it should happen is understandable.
I don't have enough knowledge to give anything close to full list of teams that should be excluded, but examples from previous post should give an idea. Big city franchises, LA franchises in particular. Their WNBA team failed to cover 11 point and 17 point spreads, and escaped with 1-1 su in overtime. But no worries, next game they will have atleast -10 again. Angels were the same in MLB, 1.5 odds with 0-3 ice cold form. Lakers were the same in NBA whole season, 8 games under .500 and getting double digit pointspreads. And Charlotte was even worse than them ATS, with a big gap. Some screaming examples like that shouldn't be hard to find. And they are worth it. In an unlucky season like this it's obvious, why you should let potential winnings of Angels for system go.

Originally Posted by Stifler

- Houston line added.

09.06.2013

S2

(D Bet) KC fade:Min 2,33 0,752u | Hou 3,11 0,83u | Hou 2,70 1,519u | Houston 2,56 2,629u
(B Bet) Pit fade: Cubs 1,847 1,18u | Cubs 2,08 2,019u


________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

Which Minnesota game are you playing?