saw now that villarreal played instead of cueto, you dont play listed pitchers stiffler?
I think we only play listed pitchers on the pitcher system plays.
Ok, i been doing that all season.
Stiffler can you confirm that?
Cincinnati still was <+100, if the line went to +100 or more they wouldnt qualify. Honestly i pushed aswell, cause i also played pitchers listed. But all that matters for S3 is the line.
Nvm
Last edited by allidoiswin89; 06-06-13 at 07:35 PM.
records:Originally Posted by Stifler
06.06.2013
S2
(A Bet) KC fade:Minnesota 2,33 0,752u
S1: W 19 | L 0 (+19,00 units)
S2: W 14 | L 1 (-6,909 units)
S3: W 97 | L 4 (-25,102 units)
P1: W 12 | L 1 (+3,971 units)
P2: W 16 | L 1 (+3,676 units)
P3: W 14 | L 0 (+14,00 units)
pending:
- P3 J.Vargas fade, C Bet on next start on the road
- P3 M.Bumgarner, D Bet on next start on the road
- P2 J.Guthrie fade, C Bet on next start
- P3 M.Scherzer, B Bet on next start on the road
- P3 B.Norris fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- P3 G.Gonzalez, B Bet on next start on the road
- S2 LAA, B Bet on 07.06.2013
- S2 Phil fade, D Bet on 17.06.2013
- S1 Col fade, B Bet on 17.06.2013
- S2 KC fade, B Bet on 07.06.2013
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
I think you missed a P3 home chase on Greinke yesterday?
07.06.2013
S1
(A Bet) Col fade: San Diego 2,51 0,662u
S2
(B Bet) KC fade:Minnesota 2,33 0,752u | Houston 3,11 0,83u
(B Bet) LAA: LA Angels 2,26 0,794u | LA Angels - waiting on line movement
S3
(A Bet) TB: Tampa Bay 1,917 1,09u
(A Bet) LAA fade: Boston 1,758 1,32u
(A Bet) Hou fade: Kansas City 1,433 2,31u
(A Bet) SF fade: Arizona 1,735 1,36u
P1
(A Bet) H.Kuroda fade: Seattle 2,44 0,694u
potential plays:
- S3 Cubs, if line <+100
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Last edited by Stifler; 06-07-13 at 05:32 AM.
Your right...good catch, unfortunately 1 day too lateI think you missed a P3 home chase on Greinke yesterday?. Shit happens...
Sorry I would've posted before the game but I didn't check my spreadsheet until when I posted. Cubs a potential S3 play today?
added the potential plays, forgot to list them.Sorry I would've posted before the game but I didn't check my spreadsheet until when I posted. Cubs a potential S3 play today?
This HOU fade chase scares me. It's reminiscing of the disastrous Angels 4-game series sweep last weekend. HOU is not that much worse than KC but we're paying astronomical juice on the Royals. I'm passing on this one...GL
Points Awarded:
jesramos gave skyscrapers 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
I will not touch that angels serie, i take that loss
I checked splits and winrates for my own purposes, but share with everybody. Should be interesting for everybody, but especially for those who doesn't chase system plays. Data is from Stifler's backtest screenshots, and this season:
S1
Game1:Total 242-195 (55%); Season 12-8
Game2:Total 106-88 (55%); Season 3-4
Game3: 63-25 (72%); Season 4-0
Game 4: 15-10 (60%); Season 0-0
S2
Game1: Total 292-228 (56%); Season 4-12
Game2: Total 131-97 (57%); Season 7-5
Game3: Total 52-45 (54%); Season 2-3
Game4: Total 27-17 (61%); Season 1-1
S3
Game1: 59%
Game2: 58%
Game3: 66%
Game4: 71%
So if you are like me and looking for "reasons" to make single bets here
S1 Game3 (72%)
S3 Game 4 (71%)
S3 Game 3 (66%)
S2 Game 4 (61%)
S1 Game 4 (60%)
are your best friends. Distance is pretty good for all of them. This is not crosschecked with average odds, but it helps to chose side.
To Stifler:
I kept this "advice" in me for a long time, but already started to talk so wtf. I really respect what you've done in many great threads. Just discipline alone amazes me. And the fact that you are treating systems like a human (mixing big plays with some low risk bets) is speaking for itself. But this is what I wanted to say:
No filtering of teams (or not good enough filtering) is killing yet another system.
There can be argument about bad teams that's losing chases (LAA, KC, MIA probably ate all profit) and why are they bad or underperfoming and who could predicted that. And eventually you would betray system principles for your own opinion if you do that. But there can be no argument about "bookies" price of certain teams. This IMO should be top1 criteria of selecting teams. And how the hell any LA team can be in selected list is beyond me. All LA franchises in all of the sports are overvalued. They will lose 3 straight and still be at 1.5 odds. Even the WNBA team is 11 point road favourite out of nowhere (and they are shit on the road). And when you chase, it's just becoming insanely important. You collect all overpricing multiplied in units you risk. And this force you to go outside and look for some football grand win, which causes additional risks just to cut those units risked. And guys "play by the book" appear, to tell you that you doing wrong betting like that, when in fact what's wrong is that you were betting that team in the first place. And as for "play by the book" guys:
I saw Wallco with some of that stuff here. He's one of the most disciplined contributors on the forum, no doubt, but pretty much same thing happened to his NBA system. If I'm not mistaken he doesn't filter anything, so at one time (could be multiple during the season) he was chasing Charlotte. What was funny is that at the time I was blindly betting against them on any spread every game as a part of teams ATS analysis. This was the team with like 30% ATS at the time, and they were on the course to yet another great season for betting against them. And system was quadripling bets on their 30% ATS winrate. They finished second straight season with +20 units for "blind faders", and lost him a big chunk of profit (at least 1 4game chase series I remember).
So what I'm trying to say, is that despite all inhuman discipline and time you (and Wallco and other fellas) put into what you do, there are money "blackholes" left unfiltered in systems, like those mentioned. I have no problem with whole concept of chasing on what should be +EV from backtest, but there should be living in the present, and handicapping elements involved. I'm not saying you haven't done it, but in most important (in my opinion) area of bookies pricing, LAA and should've been cut out. I know that if only 1 loss happened to date there would be nothing to discuss and no one would give a f. about any prices. But this year situation like that happened multiple times in different sports, so it was hard not to mention it. And Angels losing multiple (1.5 odds whole series) chases was last drop. Your play was on them again today, and every respectable capper was on Boston (together with RPI system hitting high %). All these have nothing to do with backtested trends, but still it gives you the idea. Couldn't keep silent with all that going on.
Hopefully, I've been constructive and didn't make anybody (especially other forum users I dragged into this conversation) upset.
records:07.06.2013
S1
(A Bet) Col fade: San Diego 2,51 0,662u
S2
(B Bet) KC fade:Minnesota 2,33 0,752u | Houston 3,11 0,83u
(B Bet) LAA: LA Angels 2,26 0,794u | LA Angels - waiting on line movement -ppd
S3
(A Bet) TB: Tampa Bay 1,917 1,09u
(A Bet) LAA fade: Boston 1,758 1,32u - ppd
(A Bet) Hou fade: Kansas City 1,433 2,31u
(A Bet) SF fade: Arizona 1,735 1,36u
P1
(A Bet) H.Kuroda fade: Seattle 2,44 0,694u
S1: W 19 | L 0 (+19,00 units)
S2: W 14 | L 1 (-6,909 units)
S3: W 100 | L 4 (-22,102 units)
P1: W 13 | L 1 (+4,971 units)
P2: W 16 | L 1 (+3,676 units)
P3: W 14 | L 0 (+14,00 units)
pending:
- P3 J.Vargas fade, C Bet on next start on the road
- P3 M.Bumgarner, D Bet on next start on the road
- P2 J.Guthrie fade, C Bet on next start
- P3 M.Scherzer, B Bet on next start on the road
- P3 B.Norris fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- P3 G.Gonzalez, B Bet on next start on the road
- S2 LAA, B Bet on 08.06.2013
- S2 Phil fade, D Bet on 17.06.2013
- S1 Col fade, B Bet on 17.06.2013
- S2 KC fade, C Bet on 08.06.2013
- S1 Col fade, B Bet on 08.06.2013
________________________________________ _____________________________________
