that or it might be time to even out. lol jk gamblers fallacy. dont think just do it man
I had a random thought earlier and wondering what everyone else thinks. So how about when we get to a D bet we split up that bet evenly on the next 10 A bets? eg. D bet 50units so the next 10(A) series bets we put an extra 5 units on each series.
With all do respect I think that's a terrible idea and it would cost you to bet outside of your bankroll because we know not all the a bets will clear and if they get to c and d it would be betting outside of bankroll.. sigh what's wrong with playing the system how It Is? I mean the sysrem is backtested to be played a certain way. If youre afraid of a 50 unit bet obviously bet smaller.
The problem with going smaller is that the average size "D" bet is about 23 units. So if you adjust your bets in half just because we have 1 or 2 double size "D" bets you are not really utilizing the system to it's greatest potential.
Most people are psychologically prepared to be total idiots and bet up to 25 units on a single play but every so often (once or twice a year) we have an anomaly. So you can't change everything because of an anomaly.
If you are not afraid of betting 50 units you are wagering way way too small on all of your other plays.
One thing I am dabbling with is creating a separate bank for gaining lost units. (and I'm speaking out of my butt here, have not worked this out in detail) The problem with putting a missed unit on a "A" game is that unit can quickly turn into multiple units because of losses.
SO - Why not try to get one unit back a day by putting a little extra on the low juice games like -130 or less. That way if you do lose that 1/3 unit you wagered will not all of a sudden become a burden if it loses. Just keep track on the mini-units on a separate spreadsheet.
I also like the parlay where you have a -375 game.
is it? are you sure?I mean the system is back tested to be played a certain way.
For the 'P' systems, for example we have a P3 fading Matt Cain today. I plays ARI with 'Matt Cain' must start'. Because this is a pitcher system I didn't want to play 'action' and it doesn't matter if Ian Kennedy starts or not as long as Cain starts. Anybody else doing it this way??
I do it that way also, and if I had to guess, that's probably the right way to do it...it IS pitcher-based, so even on a fade, we still want the pitcher we are fading to be pitching.Originally Posted by skyscrapers
For the 'P' systems, for example we have a P3 fading Matt Cain today. I plays ARI with 'Matt Cain' must start'. Because this is a pitcher system I didn't want to play 'action' and it doesn't matter if Ian Kennedy starts or not as long as Cain starts. Anybody else doing it this way??
records:29.04.2013
S1
(B Bet) Stl: St.Louis 1,541 1,85u | St.Louis 1,781 3,649u
S2
(A Bet) Cle fade: Kansas City 1,658 1,52u
S3
(A Bet) SD fade: Cubs 1,685 1,46u
(A Bet) Cubs: Cubs 1,685 1,46u
P3
(A Bet) M.Cain fade: Arizona 1,943 1,06u
S1: W 5 | L 0 (+5,00 units)
S2: W 3 | L 0 (+3,00 units)
S3: W 47 | L 1 (+10,497 units)
P1: W 4 | L 0 (+4,00 units)
P2: W 3 | L 0 (+3,00 units)
P3: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
pending:
- P1 T.Hudson, C Bet on next start
- P2 T.Hudson, C Bet on next start
- P1 M.Buehrle, C Bet on next start
- P2 M.Buehrle, C Bet on next start
- S1 NYY, B Bet on 07.05.2013
- S2 Phil fade, C Bet on 30.04.2013
- S1 Stl, C Bet on 30.04.2013
- S1 SD fade, B Bet on 03.05.2013
- S2 Cle fade, B Bet on 10.05.2013
- P3 M.Cain fade, B Bet on next start on the road
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
30.04.2013
S1
(C Bet) Stl: St.Louis 1,541 1,85u | St.Louis 1,781 3,649u | St.Louis 1,758 8,574u
S2
(C Bet) Phil fade: NY Mets 1,719 1,39u | NY Mets 2,06 2,255u | Cleveland - waiting on line movement
S3
(A Bet) CHW fade: Texas 1,503 1,99u
(A Bet) Tex: Texas 1,503 1,99u
P1
(C Bet) T.Hudson: Atl -1,5 2,41 0,709u | Atl -1,5 2,37 1,247u | Atlanta -1,5 2,90 1,556u
P2
(C Bet) T.Hudson: Atl 1,82 1,22u | Atl 1,855 2,596u | Atlanta 1,877 5,491u
P3
(A Bet) J.Lester: Boston 1,794 1,26u
________________________________________ _____________________________________
Last edited by Stifler; 04-30-13 at 09:40 AM.
Points Awarded:
Lakey gave Stifler 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
jakejd82 gave Stifler 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
shysta gave Stifler 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
GeorgeLynch gave Stifler 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
Sorry, ignore this
Ignore What? Today's games?
My post. I originally thought Stifler missed a play but I was wrong so deleted what I wrote.
I believe the T. Hudson P1 and P2 bets should be (C) bets, correct?
Yea, he mistyped it.I believe the T. Hudson P1 and P2 bets should be (C) bets, correct?
I am not sure about everyone else, but my spreadsheet is nasty.
I looked and it says I have 48 units outstanding at this point with current and open series.
Need a bunch of these "C" bets to cash!
- Cleveland line added.
30.04.2013
S1
(C Bet) Stl: St.Louis 1,541 1,85u | St.Louis 1,781 3,649u | St.Louis 1,758 8,574u
S2
(C Bet) Phil fade: NY Mets 1,719 1,39u | NY Mets 2,06 2,255u | Cleveland 1,99 4,692u
S3
(A Bet) CHW fade: Texas 1,503 1,99u
(A Bet) Tex: Texas 1,503 1,99u
P1
(C Bet) T.Hudson: Atl -1,5 2,41 0,709u | Atl -1,5 2,37 1,247u | Atlanta -1,5 2,90 1,556u
P2
(C Bet) T.Hudson: Atl 1,82 1,22u | Atl 1,855 2,596u | Atlanta 1,877 5,491u
P3
(A Bet) J.Lester: Boston 1,794 1,26u
________________________________________ _____________________________________
Points Awarded:
sportscreep1 gave Stifler 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
