checking in
03.04.2013
S3
(C Bet) Tor: Toronto 1,575 1,74u | Toronto 1,571 4,799u | Toronto 1,61 12,359u
(C Bet) Bos fade: NY Yankees 1,917 1,09u | NY Yankees 1,885 2,362u | NY Yankees 1,80 5,565u
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all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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Has anyone looked into the profitability of starting a series at a B bet and making it a 3 game chase for the guys that might have smaller bankrolls? Obviously you miss out on a roughly 50% or slightly more of plays that end up winning their A bet, but you also lose a lot less by losing a series as you only chase B,C,D.
My bankroll is not big enough to accommodate potential multiple D bets, especially when they can get up to 30+ units. The NBA chase was much more manageable in that sense.
Has anyone done the actual math to determine this? I've tried but went cross-eyed and decided to ask instead.
I'm terrified to have to play the Yankees again today.. ha
It depends on what the average loss per series would turn out to be.Originally Posted by kosti
Has anyone looked into the profitability of starting a series at a B bet and making it a 3 game chase for the guys that might have smaller bankrolls? Obviously you miss out on a roughly 50% or slightly more of plays that end up winning their A bet, but you also lose a lot less by losing a series as you only chase B,C,D.
My bankroll is not big enough to accommodate potential multiple D bets, especially when they can get up to 30+ units. The NBA chase was much more manageable in that sense.
Has anyone done the actual math to determine this? I've tried but went cross-eyed and decided to ask instead.
Based on backtested stats, your overall record since 2006 would be 1045-55. Your average unit loss per series would have to be less than 19 units for your method to be profitable. Based on the volatility of lines and the potential number of units you can have in play on any given day, I would say you are better off just decreasing your unit size to .5% or even lower, and play conservative until you have built up enough. No one can predict how this season will go. We can only hope that there aren't too many instances where there are multiple C and D bets on the board.
I haven't, but it should be pretty clear. Decrease your unit size rather than skip A bets.Has anyone done the actual math to determine this?
Samrock and Ji-a....thanks for the input. Decreasing the unit size was my original thought but wondered if profit would be greater if unit size stayed same and entered the series on the 2nd game (greater profit with higher unit, less loss due to only 3 game chase).
The problem with skipping the "A" games is that you lose 1541 wins or 1,541units and that is not made up anywhere.
Skipping the "A" games is a common and wrong solution in a chase. Chases are VERY high risk, high reward. many many small wins with a few HUGE losses. (Check out what we have going in the NHL today if you want your balls in your throat - this Toronto game is child's play).
Last edited by Grinder12000; 04-04-13 at 10:17 AM.
Sent PM to avoid cluttering this thread. THanks for the help guys
Last edited by kosti; 04-04-13 at 12:25 PM. Reason: removed
personally i use the b c and d games of stiflers mlb chase for a chunk of my regular flat picks...and if i feel really good about one of the series i will chase the b c and d games if i like the pitching matchups...worked really well last year and so far this this year...just my experiance with it so far...great work stifer either way!!
I think people looking to make a Chase more palatable by skipping games are not understanding the philosophy of a chase.
What they are missing is that in a chase you are going for quantity - not quality. Like I told kosti - we are machine gunners and not snipers. By skipping the "A" game you will lose less but also win less because you won't have all of those "A" game wins.
Skipping the "A" games you will have a higher winning percentage but win less money.
Oh i totally agree with u grinder...im just talking about scouting out and picking certain games involved in successful chase systems such as this one can be very beneficial to flat betting. Its all personal preference. Id rather be flat betting 100 dollars a game then risking over 1000 at times just to win 50 dollars. You can talk about having/not having balls, machine gunners, and snipers all day long, but at the end of the day, profit is profit
Totally agree cooler54 - I was not actually answering YOU. Everybody needs to find a comfort zone. Personally today I'm NOT in my comfort zone with 3 sports and too many critical games on my card. one a night is fine but having 3 or 4 is not my cup of tea.
Thankfully the NBA and NHL seasons are coming to a close...Totally agree cooler54 - I was not actually answering YOU. Everybody needs to find a comfort zone. Personally today I'm NOT in my comfort zone with 3 sports and too many critical games on my card. one a night is fine but having 3 or 4 is not my cup of tea.
Personally, I stopped with Stifler NBA and Wallco NHL about a week ago on a day when the board was clear of all open series(there may have been 1 or 2 that I just ate the A bet loss on) and I'm focusing everything on MLB right now.
Just realized if tor and nyy both lose tonight then both d bets will be tor vs bos . Tor bet and Bos fade. I think it will be like 70 units on tor. Could be very interesting
