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#226

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Have had quit a few questions regarding the Royals/Tigers matchup. I dont like the play either way but i definately do not like the Royals grienke or not...i might be wrong but these facts are enuf to scare me off of them:

Royals are 0-6 in their last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Royals are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150.
Royals are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Royals are 1-4 in their last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Royals are 1-4 in Greinkes last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Royals are 1-4 in Greinkes last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
Royals are 0-4 in Greinkes last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Tigers are 9-1 in their last 10 home games.
Tigers are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
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#232

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I see alot of folks are on the royals game today with not much explanation on why. I actually didnt play this game but the over 8 in the game is the better play than the side and heres why:


Weather:

74 Degrees, Partly cloudy, 12-17 mph winds blowing out to left-center.

So we have the wind blowing out, and its a comfortable temperature. There is a check.


Pitching Analysis:

Greinke has pitched 2 games vs. Detroit this year and has been nothing short of spectacular. 2 complete games, 1 ER, 1BB, 18SO.

You cant really be any better than that, however, both games were in KC, and i expect the Tigers to get to him a little more this 3rd time around. The ticket here is the home plate umpire. Johnson has an O/U record of 10-4, and has a K:BB ratio of 1.39:1. This is among the lowest ratio's in the league. Greinke has 19BB and 120K's on the season so we can safely say he relies HEAVILY on the strikeout. He may get a little annoyed here when he doesn't get the borderline calls he is used to. Add to all this that Greinke tied his worst outing of the season on Friday allowing 9 hits and 4 runs in 6. I really don't see Greinke mowing the Tigers down again like he did earlier in the season.

Unfortunately for French, he is no Greinke, yet has to deal with the same ump who has a smaller than average strikezone. In his first ML start, he gave up 2 runs on 6 hits in 4 and 2/3. Though the Tigers haven't seen him, there's at least a scouting report out on him. Safe to say, we should see a healthy dose of Tigers bull pen. Chalk up a few runs there.

The Line:

We have a very reasonable total at 8... especially when you consider its an AL park. These 2 teams have averaged 9.25 runs per game in 8 games this season. If we can get 4 from each team we are a winner, and the fact that KC is favoured gives us a probably chance of having a complete 9 innings... unless of course the Tigers get to Greinke
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#238

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Rough day for us yesterday. I was lucky and did a big bet with Tex ML and RRL last night and they took care of business. I like them today to give King Felix an ass kicking tonight. I got Tex ML +170 and -1.5 RRL +270 . The odds are just too juicy. I know today will be a bounce back day for you and the followers.
Last edited by dreamjob; 07-09-09 at 05:16 PM.
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#239

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Quote Originally Posted by MILEHIGHMONSTERS View Post
07/08 Updated Plays:

Chicago Cubs (Hart) ML -108 (2 units)
**Colorado (De La Rosa) ML -173 (2.5 units)**
San Francisco (Sadowski) ML -121 (2 units)
Los Angeles (Kuroda) ML -140 (2 units)
Seattle (Vargas) ML -122 (2 units)
Boston (Wakefield) ML -169 (2 units)


YTD:
ML Plays: 35-22, 61.40%,+18.44 units

YTD:
ML Plays: 36-26, 58.1%,+10.62 units
Last edited by MILEHIGHMONSTERS; 07-10-09 at 11:57 AM.
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