Login Search

John Morrison 2012 MLB Thread

Last Post
#17

Default

Quote Originally Posted by Maxi_EV View Post
Why don't you provide people with a good advice. It's your system buddy. You know how it swings.
Because it it not here yet, I haven't finished reviewing 2011 and making adjustments, and I don't care about it yet. My personal bets have nothing to do with how others play any system. The backtests are provided, base your personal wagers on your comfort level of those results. Enough already. It's a four game chase syatem, play whatever % roll you normally would on a chase. If I play 1% or 5%, really doesn't matter to how others are going to do it.
#18

Default

Quote Originally Posted by thelimit0310 View Post
Are these numbers correct? Looks promising though I know it dived down to the depths of hell for last year.

Wallco if you could post last years numbers, preferably without V2 so they match Maxi's, I'd appreciate it. Nice job on the thread!
That's what I plan on doing, but he's not really giving me a chance. I am swarmed with NBA backtest right now, and have 0 time for MLB. I play $100 per unit, if that's not enough, then so be it.
#20

Default

Quote Originally Posted by thelimit0310 View Post
Are these numbers correct? Looks promising though I know it dived down to the depths of hell for last year.

Wallco if you could post last years numbers, preferably without V2 so they match Maxi's, I'd appreciate it. Nice job on the thread!
Those are the numbers he posted last year.
#21

Default

Just to help out people decide their unit size for MLB PLU$$$.
Based on Wallco's results posted last year & with 2011 going even (we will adjust that later).

MLB PLU$$$ will produce:

520 units or less: 100% of the time
200 units or less: 86.8% of the time
100 units or less: 58.6% of the time
50 units or less: 40.8% of the time

0 units or less: 24.73% of the time

-50 units or worst: 12.86% of the time
-100 units or worst: 5.67% of the time
-150 units or worst: 2.1 % of the time
#23

Default

I think a big thing here is bankroll management. If you bet 1% as a unit, if the system swings to -100 units at any point you will be broke. It can than recover and even end the year in the green, but that doesnt matter because you would have lost your entire roll and be forced to quit.

So Wallco, it would be nice information to know what types of swings you saw in the backtest, and to what extent in the red. With a year at around -150 you would need to be playing .5% roll/unit but for all I know it could have swung to -200 at any point and you would have lost it all before recovering anything back.

Im gonna follow this v1 this year, probably do 1% units and hope for no big red swings
#25

Default

Quote Originally Posted by Maxi_EV View Post
Just to help out people decide their unit size for MLB PLU$$$.
Based on Wallco's results posted last year & with 2011 going even (we will adjust that later).

MLB PLU$$$ will produce:

520 units or less: 100% of the time
200 units or less: 86.8% of the time
100 units or less: 58.6% of the time
50 units or less: 40.8% of the time

0 units or less: 24.73% of the time

-50 units or worst: 12.86% of the time
-100 units or worst: 5.67% of the time
-150 units or worst: 2.1 % of the time
Blah, Blah, Blah, up until last season it produced +594 units. 2011 stats will be posted when I have finished compiling. For anyone getting confused by the complex posts that are starting to appear in this thread, +594 is the bottom line. I play systems for the long haul. not day-day, or week-week, or unit-unit, as some folks appear to be doing. If you started playing in 2005 and stopped in 2011, you would have 594 more units than you started with. I will updare 2011 once I determine how much of the loss was from v2.
#28

Default

Quote Originally Posted by Wallco99 View Post
Blah, Blah, Blah, up until last season it produced +594 units. 2011 stats will be posted when I have finished compiling. For anyone getting confused by the complex posts that are starting to appear in this thread, +594 is the bottom line. I play systems for the long haul. not day-day, or week-week, or unit-unit, as some folks appear to be doing. If you started playing in 2005 and stopped in 2011, you would have 594 more units than you started with. I will updare 2011 once I determine how much of the loss was from v2.
I don't see what offends you in that post...
Again, you're in defensive mode.

Just numbers...