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Connor Murphy #5 and Jonathan Toews #19 of the Chicago Blackhawks talk against the St. Louis Blues during the third period of a preseason game at United Center on September 27, 2022 in Chicago, Illinois.
Connor Murphy #5 and Jonathan Toews #19 of the Chicago Blackhawks talk against the St. Louis Blues during the third period of a preseason game at United Center on September 27, 2022 in Chicago, Illinois. Michael Reaves/Getty Images via AFP.

It is always fun to look at NHL team point totals and find potential value. Actually, it is fun to do it when seeking out Over picks, the teams that can exceed expectations. The process might be a little more depressing when it comes to finding Under picks on team totals, but there is still value in the NHL betting markets.

One of the reasons finding Under picks is a little more difficult is that there will be some teams whose greatest problem for the upcoming season will be injuries. They are inevitable and unpredictable, so some teams will fall short of expectations, largely because of an accumulation of injuries. It happens.

Finding the teams that, even without injuries, are going to come in under their team totals is more challenging. There is always value to be found in the market, though. Here are six teams that offer potential value when picking the Under on their team point totals.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, BetMGM, PointsBet, and Barstool Sportsbook.

Best NHL Team Total Under Picks 

Blackhawks Under 66.5 (-115 via DraftKings) 

There is a bonus feature when it comes to a couple of the teams to seek out for Unders: those teams are not trying to win. The Chicago Blackhawks have started gutting their roster and still may have trades coming for Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, long-time stars with contracts that expire at the end of the season.

Chicago accumulated 68 points last season and entered the campaign with actual intent to win. There is no need for that illusion this season as Chicago is in deep rebuilding mode and with a goaltending tandem of Petr Mrazek and Alex Stalock, the Blackhawks are well positioned to fall shy of 60 points.

Coyotes Under 66.5 (-112 via Barstool)

Chicago is not the only team going into the season without serious intent to win. The Arizona Coyotes managed a meager 57 points last season, a .348 points percentage. They also finished with a league-worst five-on-five score-and-venue-adjusted expected goals percentage, and did not improve their roster in the offseason. They are also constantly rumored to be shopping defenseman Jakob Chychrun, which could benefit the team in the long run, but would not bring immediate improvement.

If a handful of rookies all made the team and had a significant impact, maybe the Coyotes would surprise but, like the Blackhawks, the Coyotes’ sights are not set on winning games this season. If a team expects to lose, it makes it that much easier for the forecaster to expect them to lose.

Ducks Under 80.5 (-112 via Barstool)

The Anaheim Ducks have been on pace for 80 or fewer points in four consecutive seasons. They hit 76 points last season while finishing with 47.2% of five-on-five score-and-venue-adjusted expected goals, which ranked 22nd. The Ducks are not aiming for the lottery with the same kind of single-mindedness as Chicago and Arizona. However, new general manager Pat Verbeek should have some runway so that he can gear Anaheim’s rebuilding effort to the long haul, rather than worrying about immediate improvement.

The Ducks did make some notable acquisitions, bringing in defensemen John Klingberg and Dmitry Kulikov as well forwards Ryan Strome and Frank Vatrano. Mason McTavish is also considered one of the top rookies coming into the season, so the Ducks have some potential. Unless their young talent busts out this season, it could be another tough year in Anaheim.

Sharks Under 76.5 (-115 via BetMGM)

While the San Jose Sharks recorded 77 points last season, their .470 points percentage was better than the previous two seasons. The Sharks also traded defenseman Brent Burns, in a move that was prompted by the need for salary cap flexibility and is not likely to bring improvement this season.

Timo Meier, Tomas Hertl, Logan Couture, and Erik Karlsson give the Sharks some talent around which to build. However, for the most part, there are just too many holes in the roster to expect a winning season. A common issue for the Ducks and the Sharks is that the top of the Pacific Division should be very competitive once again. That will make accumulating points even more challenging for a couple of teams that are trying to remodel.  

Red Wings Under 84.5 (-112 via Barstool)

The Detroit Red Wings are one of a few teams in the Atlantic Division that should be notably better this season, joining the Ottawa Senators and Buffalo Sabres. After finishing with 74 points last season, Detroit was active in the offseason, adding forwards David Perron, Andrew Copp, and Dominik Kubalik, plus defensemen Ben Chiarot and Olli Maatta, and goaltender Ville Husso. Add in a healthy Jakub Vrana and a hope for continued development from defenseman Moritz Seider and winger Lucas Raymond, and Detroit should be clearly better than it was in 2021-2022.

After recording 45.8% of five-on-five score-and-venue-adjusted expected goals last season, which ranked 28th, the Wings do not necessarily have to be more than 10 points better and the Red Wings' defense still looks plenty fragile. It's fair to wonder just how much improvement Detroit will show this year.

Stars Under 95.5 (-115 via DraftKings)

The Dallas Stars recorded 98 points last season and made the playoffs, where they lost in seven games to the Calgary Flames. That Stars team practically relied on one line. As this season approaches, Jason Robertson is still awaiting a new contract after leading the Stars with 41 goals last season. If Robertson signs soon, maybe this take will be too hot, but if his absence lingers into the regular season, the Stars could be scrambling to generate offense.

Dallas replaced head coach Rick Bowness with Peter DeBoer. DeBoer had his teams play to better than a 96-point pace in each of the past five seasons with the San Jose Sharks and Vegas Golden Knights. However, those teams had more players in their prime. This season could go either way for the Stars, but the longer the Robertson contract issue goes, the more difficult it will be for them to get over their team point total.

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