NHL Regular-Season Team Point Total Over Picks: Value with Avalanche, Flames, Lightning
At the start of every NHL season, there are plenty of opportunities to find value when wagering on team point totals. Here are nine teams that look like good value on the Over for their projected 2022-23 NHL regular-season win totals.
When trying to judge a team’s quality and how that might affect their points in the standings, it is useful to know where they have finished in recent seasons, and what kind of major transactions are going to affect the roster. Every team has some turnover in the offseason, but adding or subtracting from the core of the team is really what drives results.
There is always going to be a degree of uncertainty because of the season-long time frame. If a team gets hit by an especially bad run of injuries, it is going to be difficult to overcome. It happened to the Vegas Golden Knights last season. Those are the breaks of the game, but these teams head into the season with legitimate expectations that they can hit the Over on their team total (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, BetMGM, PointsBet, and Barstool Sportsbook).
Best NHL Team Point Total Overs
Colorado Avalanche Over 110.5 (-120 via FanDuel)
This is a lofty total, but FanDuel is coming in lower than the other top sportsbooks. The Avalanche had 119 points last season and were on a 120-point pace in the season before that, so this team should still play to a level that is Over the number.
They lost center Nazem Kadri and starting goaltender Darcy Kuemper as free agents, and team captain Gabriel Landeskog is injured so he will not be ready for the start of the season. However, Colorado still has superstars who can drive results. Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Mikko Rantanen are elite talents and, as a Cup-winning team with a core in its prime, the Avalanche should not fall off dramatically.
Calgary Flames Over 102 (-120 via Caesars)
Last season was the Flames’ best since their last Stanley Cup win in 1988-1989, playing to a .677 points percentage and earning 111 points. Then they lost two 100-point forwards when Johnny Gaudreau signed as a free agent in Columbus and Matthew Tkachuk was traded to Florida.
Remarkably, the Flames ultimately upgraded by getting left winger Jonathan Huberdeau and defenseman MacKenzie Weegar from Florida before signing Kadri.
Calgary might be even better than the team that put up 111 points last season, so going Over 102 points makes all kinds of sense.
Tampa Bay Lightning Over 103.5 (-113 via FanDuel)
In the past five seasons, the Lightning have been perennial contenders, winning two Stanley Cups. In those five seasons, the worst was still played to better than a 107-point pace over 82 games.
Though they traded defenseman Ryan McDonagh and lost left-winger Ondrej Palat to New Jersey as a free agent, the Lightning still have the core of a multi-time Stanley Cup winner: Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point, Victor Hedman.
As long as star goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy remains healthy, Tampa Bay should be good for at least 105 points.
Edmonton Oilers Over 102.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
Expectations are elevated for the Oilers, not merely because they recorded 104 points last season, but because they played to a 119-point pace after Jay Woodcroft took over as head coach for the last 38 games.
The Oilers have likely upgraded their goaltending, signing free agent Jack Campbell and promoting Stuart Skinner from the AHL, and they re-signed winger Evander Kane, who scored 35 goals in 58 (regular season plus playoff) games after joining the Oilers last season.
With Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl at the peak of their powers, the time is now for the Oilers to be contenders, and that will require regular-season accomplishment, too.
Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.
Carolina Hurricanes Over 103.5 (-112 via Barstool)
In the past two seasons, the Hurricanes have played to a .710 points percentage, which would bring in 116 points over an 82-game season. They also added playmaking defenseman Brent Burns (and Max Pacioretty, though he will miss most of the season with an injury).
Nevertheless, the Hurricanes have a stable core of talent and are a reliable team that controls play.
Toronto Maple Leafs Over 106.5 (-115 via PointsBet)
While playoff shortcomings remain the cloud that hangs over the Maple Leafs, they just recorded a franchise-best 115 points. They overhauled their goaltending, bringing in Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov, and Toronto won with shaky goaltending in the second half of last season.
The defense is about as strong as it has been in this era, and mix in the elite scoring talent provided by Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander, and the Leafs should still win a lot of games.
Team captain John Tavares will not be ready to start the regular season as he deals with an oblique injury, but that should not be enough to knock the Maple Leafs down.
Nashville Predators Over 95.5 (-115 via Caesars)
After recording 97 points last season, the Predators could have been at risk of falling out of the playoff picture. However, they re-signed star scoring winger Filip Forsberg, who was a free agent, and traded for defenseman Ryan McDonagh, who was an integral part of Tampa Bay’s Stanley Cup runs. Add in veteran winger Nino Niederreiter and this Nashville team looks like it should be even better than last year’s squad.
The biggest risk with the Preds might be that so much of their success is tied to goaltender Juuse Saros, who has a .921 save percentage as Nashville’s starting goalie for the past two seasons. Should anything happen to Saros, the Over would become a much riskier play.
Vancouver Canucks Over 92.5 (-115 via DraftKings)
Once Bruce Boudreau took over behind the bench for the Canucks last season, Vancouver played to a 106-point pace over an 82-game season. It depended heavily on goaltender Thatcher Demko, who was excellent, but the Canucks’ stars also produced down the stretch.
J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson, and Quinn Hughes are the key components for the Canucks, and they have a strong enough supporting cast that a preseason injury to Brock Boeser should not derail a team that has every reason to believe that it can compete for a playoff spot.
Ottawa Senators Over 83.5 (-115 via Caesars)
Winning the offseason is not the big prize, but for a young team on the rise, the Senators may have won the offseason after trading for Alex DeBrincat in addition to signing star forward Claude Giroux and starting goaltender Cam Talbot.
After finishing with 73 points last season, the Senators have a long way to climb, but this young team wants to build on a strong finish and at least challenge for a playoff berth this season. That might be asking a lot, but going for more than 84 points is a very reasonable target.
Where to Bet on NHL Point Totals
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NHL point total Overs picks made 9/30/2022 at 1:51 p.m. ET
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