NHL Player Point Total Picks, Predictions for 2022-23: McDavid Has a Higher Ceiling
Call me an optimist, but when seeking value picks at our top sportsbooks for NHL player point totals, my preferences tilt towards the Overs.
Beyond past production, there are a few key factors when projecting NHL player point production. On-ice shooting percentage is reflective of all players on the ice and, generally, is not in the control of an individual player.
The caliber of a player’s linemates is a factor outside of a player’s control. When looking for Overs, then, it makes sense to find the players that drive offensive production.
Injuries are also going to be an issue on season-long point props. Any kind of injury that knocks a player out for more than a few weeks could make the Over difficult to achieve.
Top sportsbooks are not offering as many individual player point total markets relative to goal-scoring futures. Nevertheless, there are some players offering potential value.
I have been projecting hockey stats for more than 20 years, and my projections tend to be conservative. When it comes to finding value on the board for points, though, I lean toward the Over.
Here are top NHL player point total picks for the 2022-23 season (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and BetMGM).
NHL Player Point Total Picks
McDavid Over 120.5, -114 (via FanDuel)
Connor McDavid recorded a career-high 123 points last season, so there is not a lot of wiggle room to go over 120.5 points. However, McDavid’s five-on-five on-ice shooting percentage last season was a career-low 8.3%.
In the previous two seasons, McDavid had a full-strength on-ice shooting percentage of nearly 11.2%. So, there is likely some positive regression coming his way.
With such a high total, there is little room for McDavid to miss time with any kind of injury. He has missed a total of just 13 games across the past six seasons.
Panarin Over 92.5, -115 (via DraftKings)
The narrative around New York Rangers winger Artemi Panarin turned negative after he went through a slump in the playoffs. He finished with 16 points in 20 playoff games but that is far below his typical production with the Rangers.
In three seasons in New York, Panarin has 249 points in 186 games. His 1.34 points per game in that time ranks fifth in the NHL, so there is little reason to suspect the 30-year-old is ready to fall off the pace.
Makar Over 77.5, -115 (via FanDuel)
The rising star 23-year-old is coming off a season in which he won the Norris Trophy as the best defenseman, as well as the Conn Smythe Trophy as Stanley Cup Playoffs MVP.
Cale Makar recorded 86 points in 77 games last regular season and is generating some discussion about whether he could win the Hart Trophy as league MVP.
Scoring 78 or more points should not be an enormous challenge for Makar. It is merely whether he stays healthy enough to produce up to his expected results.
Huberdeau Over 89.5, -114 (via FanDuel)
After registering 115 points for the Florida Panthers last season, Jonathan Huberdeau was traded to the Calgary Flames in the offseason.
Across the past four seasons, Huberdeau has put up 346 points in 286 games, which ranks fourth in the NHL. His most common five-on-five linemates in the past couple of seasons were Sam Bennett and Anthony Duclair.
Huberdeau is probably going to have linemates with better offensive credentials than Bennett and Duclair in Calgary. Elias Lindholm and Tyler Toffoli are Huberdeau's potential five-on-five linemates to start the season and they should not hurt his production at full strength.
Kaprizov Over 92.5, -114 (via FanDuel)
Kirill Kaprizov, the 25-year-old Minnesota Wild winger erupted for 108 points in his second NHL season. His on-ice shooting percentage of 11.9% was on the higher end and is likely to experience regression.
At the same time, Kaprizov put up 108 points when his most common five-on-five linemates were Ryan Hartman and Mats Zuccarello. A 15-point cushion compared to last season is enough to like Kaprizov for the Over 92.5 points.
Draisaitl Over 108.5, -114 (via FanDuel)
In the past four seasons, Leon Draisaitl put up 409 points across 289 games, ranking second behind only McDavid.
Like McDavid, Draisaitl had an on-ice shooting percentage last season that was lower than his usual. Last year, his on-ice shooting percentage was 9.6%, when he was running at 10.6% or higher in each of the previous three seasons.
So long as Draisaitl stays healthy, he should continue to produce at an elite level.
Kane Over 83.5, -115 (via BetMGM)
Expectations are decidedly low for the Chicago Blackhawks this season because the team is not trying to win. The Blackhawks have been bad already and Patrick Kane has still managed to put up points.
In the past four seasons, his 352 points in 285 games rank third behind McDavid and Draisaitl.
There will likely come a time during this season that Kane, who has an expiring contract, will be traded to a better team. But he is probably going to find a way to put up points wherever he plays.
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