NFL Teaser Picks for Week 5: Can We Trust Green Bay?
The Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys headline our NFL Week 5 teasers picks.
In addition to grabbing a larger cushion on spreads and totals by teasing through key numbers and ranges, bettors can also land closing-line value by making teaser wagers earlier in the week and besting the closing numbers.
For additional information on teaser bets and strategies, make sure to check out our teaser betting primer.
Check out our NFL Week 5 odds and lines analysis.
Here are our NFL teaser picks for Week 5. Lines from FanDuel Sportsbook as of 10 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Oct. 4.
Week 4 NFL ATS Teaser Picks
Favorite to tease down
Packers (-7.5)
While the Packers burned me last week, I’m confident in them rebounding in London and taking care of the New York Giants in Week 5. New York quarterback Daniel Jones is nursing a sprained ankle, and the offense was already reeling with the eighth-worst success rate and second-lowest team grade per Pro Football Focus.
Teasing the Packers down through three key numbers (7, 4, and 3) mitigates the potential risks accompanying a cross-Atlantic trip, too.
The Green Bay run defense has been soft with the 28th-ranked DVOA per Football Outsiders, and the Packers have also allowed the second-highest success rate on the ground.
It’s a concern.
However, there’s potential statistical correction ahead. The Packers had the second-highest tackling grade per PFF last season, but they’ve dipped to 18th this year despite adding two defensive players in the first round of the draft. Nearly every meaningful defensive starter returned this year, too.
I’m also expecting Green Bay to improve on both sides of the ball as the season continues, and the Giants are a ripe opponent to start the upward trajectory.
Underdog to tease up
Cowboys (+4.5)
The primary narrative leading into Sunday will be focused on the status of Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (thumb) and whether he’ll suit up against the Los Angeles Rams. However, it should be centered on how the L.A. offense is going to score on the Dallas defense.
Aside from racking up 31 points on the lowly Atlanta Falcons defense in Week 2, the Rams have struggled to score and average just 13 points per game across their other three matchups.
Additionally, Los Angeles quarterback Matthew Stafford has turned the ball over seven times this season, been sacked 16 times, thrown for a pedestrian 6.8 yards per attempt, and ranks 24th in EPA per play.
The Cowboys rank fifth in defensive DVOA and have the second-highest pass rush grade per PFF. Regardless of who starts at quarterback for Dallas, the Cowboys can keep pace with the Rams, and bettors can tease this game through the key numbers of 7 and 10 and up to a two-possession margin.
Week 4 NFL O/U Teaser Picks
Total to tease down
Bengals-Ravens (48)
Compared to the look-ahead Over/Under of 52.5 at FanDuel, the total trading at 48.5 entering Week 5 is a more accurate number, and bettors have the luxury of teasing it down through the key range of 43-44.
The Cincinnati Bengals' offense has rebounded the past two weeks. Quarterback Joe Burrow has the second-highest EPA per dropback while throwing five touchdowns and for 8.39 yards per attempt. Cincy will also benefit from the additional rest following its Week 4 win on Thursday Night Football.
So, with the Baltimore Ravens leading the NFL in offensive DVOA, there’s potential for this divisional matchup to turn into a shootout considering there are question marks looming for both defenses.
Statistically, the Bengals have been sound defensively, but take a look at the opposing quarterbacks they’ve faced – not exactly a cast of characters heading to Canton. Baltimore, meanwhile, has surrendered the third-highest EPA per play and fourth-highest success rate over the past three weeks while allowing an average of 30.3 points per game.
Total to tease up
49ers-Panthers (39.5)
This is the lowest Over/Under line of the week, and it’s definitely warranted. The Carolina Panthers have been among the worst statistical offenses in the league, and the San Francisco 49ers boast the best defense.
Carolina ranks last in EPA per play with the second-lowest success rate while sitting second-last in offensive DVOA and sporting the third-lowest offense grade per PFF. Add that the Panthers have run the fewest offensive plays per game in the league, and it’s hard to envision how they will move the ball consistently and/or score enough against San Francisco to threaten this total.
The 49ers have also been far from offensive juggernauts, and Carolina’s defense has held its own through the first four weeks of the campaign. San Francisco ranks 26th in offensive DVOA and is tied for the fourth-lowest offense grade per PFF. The Panthers have surrendered the 10th-lowest EPA per play and sport a middle-of-the-pack 13th defensive DVOA.
This total can also be teased up through the key ranges of 40-41 and 43-44.
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