NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 5: Safest Best Bets Based on the Odds
There are finally a handful of big spreads to take advantage of in survivor pools in Week 5, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Buffalo Bills, and Green Bay Packers headline our Week 5 NFL survivor pool picks rankings.
While it took the Packers winning ugly, each of the top-five teams in our rankings won in Week 4. The Week 5 slate features a number of mismatches, large home favorites, and big spreads.
Here’s a look at the odds list and a breakdown of the best teams to target and fade in survivor pools this week. Check out all of our Week 5 NFL odds and lines.
Week 5 Survivor Pool Picks Rankings
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook on Wednesday, Oct. 5, at 9:30 a.m. ET.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Win Probability |
| Buccaneers | -8.5 | -460 | 82.1% |
| Bills | -14 | -900 | 90.0% |
| Packers | -8.5 | -400 | 80.0% |
| 49ers | -6.5 | -290 | 74.4% |
| Jaguars | -7 | -320 | 76.2% |
| Chiefs | -7.5 | -360 | 78.3% |
| Eagles | -5.5 | -260 | 72.2% |
| Vikings | -7 | -320 | 78.3% |
| Saints | -6 | -255 | 71.8% |
| Patriots | -3 | -166 | 62.4% |
| Cowboys | +4.5 | +180 | 35.7% |
| Broncos | -3 | -180 | 64.3% |
| Dolphins | -3.5 | -176 | 63.8% |
| Titans | -2.5 | -138 | 58.0% |
| Ravens | -3 | -178 | 64.0% |
| Chargers | -3 | -154 | 60.6% |
| Browns | +3 | +130 | 43.5% |
| Bengals | +3 | +150 | 40.0% |
| Commanders | +2.5 | +118 | 45.9% |
| Jets | +3.5 | +148 | 40.3% |
| Colts | +3 | +152 | 39.7% |
| Rams | -4.5 | -215 | 68.3% |
| Lions | +3 | +140 | 41.7% |
| Seahawks | +6 | +210 | 32.3% |
| Bears | +7 | +265 | 27.4% |
| Cardinals | +5.5 | +215 | 31.7% |
| Raiders | +7.5 | +290 | 25.6% |
| Texans | +7 | +260 | 27.8% |
| Panthers | +6.5 | +235 | 29.9% |
| Giants | +8.5 | +315 | 24.1% |
| Steelers | +14 | +610 | 14.1% |
| Falcons | +8.5 | +360 | 21.7% |
Top Survivor Pool Picks
3. Packers (vs. Giants) in London
There will be more clarity about the quarterback situation for the New York Giants leading into the weekend, but as it stands, Daniel Jones is nursing a left ankle sprain, and Tyrod Taylor sustained a concussion during Week 4. Davis Webb is the only remaining signal caller under contract, and he’s on the practice squad.
Not exactly ideal when having to travel across the pond to play in London.
New York has the second-lowest overall grade per Pro Football Focus, so even with Green Bay showing some early-season flaws, the Packers are also huge favorites for good reason. I expect the Packers to improve as the season progresses, too.
Additionally, this projects as a favorable matchup for the Green Bay offense. The Giants rank 26th in defense grade per PFF, and Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ play has improved the past three weeks with a 70.5 completion percentage and 7.8 yards per attempt.
Plus, the Packers are fifth in rush DVOA per Football Outsiders and fourth in run grade per PFF.
2. Bills (vs. Steelers)
The Bills are the largest favorites on the Week 5 docket by a significant margin, and Pittsburgh Steelers rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett will be making his first career start.
Even if the Buffalo defense is still without a number of key starters, there’s a legitimate home-field advantage for the Bills at Highmark Stadium. Pickett will face the NFL’s highest-graded pass rush per PFF and second-ranked defense by DVOA.
As a result, I don’t foresee the Steelers keeping up with the Bills.
This might also be a strategic opportunity to turn to the Bills in survivor pools. Buffalo has a road date with the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6 and a Week 7 bye. I also wouldn't target the Bills in Week 8 against the Packers.
1. Buccaneers (vs. Falcons)
I’m confident in the Buccaneers winning outright in Week 5. They have an opportunity to take first place in the NFC South and are also coming off consecutive home losses.
The Atlanta Falcons have been one of the most surprising teams to start the season, and while they boast a perfect 4-0 ATS record, Tampa Bay just needs to win Sunday. Additionally, this represents a significant step up in class for the Falcons' offense.
Tampa Bay ranks second in coverage grade per PFF and fourth in defensive DVOA. The Bucs had also allowed the lowest EPA per play through the first three weeks of the season before their Week 4 loss to the Chiefs.
This is also a breakout spot for the Tampa Bay offense and quarterback Tom Brady with Atlanta allowing the fourth highest success rate per dropback. Although, I’d suggest that Brady throwing for 385 yards with three touchdowns and a 57.9% success rate in Week 4 already opened that door.
Others to Consider
- 49ers at Panthers
- Jaguars vs. Texans
- Chiefs vs. Raiders
- Eagles at Cardinals
Favorite to Fade
Rams (vs. Cowboys)
The Los Angeles Rams offense ranks 26th in DVOA and has become predictable. Furthermore, quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown for just 6.8 yards per attempt while ranking 24th in EPA per play. For comparison, Stafford passed for 8.1 YPA and ranked fifth in EPA/play last year.
The Dallas Cowboys are also a daunting opponent with the fifth-highest defensive DVOA and second-highest pass rush grade per PFF.
The loss of retired left tackle Andrew Whitworth has the L.A. offensive line in shambles — reinforced by the Rams having the worst pass blocking grade per PFF. Stafford has also been sacked 16 times this season, including seven times by the Bills in Week 1 and seven more in Week 4 against the San Francisco 49ers.
I’ve already bet the Cowboys +4.5 and the moneyline, and I suspect you’ll see this spread drop leading into Sunday.
Others to Consider
- Chargers at Browns
- Dolphins at Jets
- Broncos vs. Colts
Where to Bet on the NFL
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