Eagles vs. Chiefs Expert Picks Week 11: Best Bets for MNF
Let's dive in with our expert Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs picks for Monday Night Football from our Sportsbook Review betting analysts, based on the best NFL odds.
Monday night features a rematch of Super Bowl LVII as the Philadelphia Eagles head to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs.
The Eagles come into this game as the hotter team following three straight victories. They've seeking revenge after losing last year's Super Bowl.
The Chiefs have leaned on a stifling defense this season, and now face the challenge of slowing down Philadelphia's explosive offense. Can Kansas City contain Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, or will the Philly attack prove to be too much to handle?
For our full betting preview of this mega Monday Night Football matchup, check out our Eagles vs. Chiefs player props, Jalen Hurts player props, A.J. Brown player props, Patrick Mahomes player props, Travis Kelce player props, and Eagles vs. Chiefs parlay ahead of kickoff.
To accompany our Eagles vs. Chiefs prediction, here are our best Eagles vs. Chiefs expert picks for Week 11’s Monday Night Football contest (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Eagles vs. Chiefs expert picks
| Mike Spector | Brenden Schaeffer | Phil Wood | Neil Parker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce Over 73.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Jalen Hurts Over 8.5 rushing attempts (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | AJ Brown Under 84.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Jerick McKinnon Over 11.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐ |
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Eagles vs. Chiefs top picks
Travis Kelce Over 73.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Travis Kelce faces a Philadelphia Eagles pass defense that ranks in the bottom seven of the league in passer rating, yards per game, and touchdowns allowed since Week 5.
Philadelphia has been poor against the pass in general and is even more abysmal when defending tight ends. The Eagles have allowed a 98 QBR to the opposition when it targets tight ends, which ranks last in the league. In addition, opposing quarterbacks have completed 78% of their passes for an average of eight yards per attempt when targeting tight ends, which each ranks fifth-worst defensively for Philadelphia.
Kelce had six catches for 81 yards and a touchdown in the Super Bowl LVII victory against a much better Eagles defense than this year’s version. And considering he ranks in the top two in receptions, receiving yards, and targets among tight ends, his floor is always sky-high.
FanDuel has a slightly lower O/U than the rest of our best sports betting apps, which all have the total at one yard higher.
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–– Mike Spector (SBR | Twitter/X)
Jalen Hurts Over 8.5 rushing attempts (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Whether you refer to it as the "tush push" or the "Brotherly Shove," the reality is that the play has been a free square for first downs when the Eagles are in short-yardage scenarios. It’s also been a boon for Jalen Hurts’ rushing attempt props this season as it establishes a pretty stable floor for his carry totals.
Across our best sportsbooks, Hurts’ rushing attempts total for Monday night sits at 8.5 attempts. On the season, Hurts has registered nine or more carries in seven of his team’s nine games. The last time we saw him against this Chiefs defense, Hurts ran with frequency, rushing 15 times for 70 yards and three touchdowns. This is the biggest game the Eagles have played since then, so I expect Hurts to want to do anything possible to swing this game in his team’s favor, which could mean another hefty carry count.
FanDuel lists Hurts’ rushing attempts line at 8.5 with similar -112 odds on Over. Bettors can find slightly better value at bet365, which offers Over 8.5 rushing attempts at -110 odds.
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–– Brenden Schaeffer (SBR | Twitter/X)
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AJ Brown Under 84.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The last time he took the field, AJ Brown recorded seven catches for 66 yards. Before that performance, he had gone for more than 100 receiving yards in six consecutive games. Though he could certainly go Over 100 yards on Monday night, the Chiefs’ defense has been phenomenal at shutting down No. 1 wide receivers.
Two weeks ago in Germany, the Chiefs held Tyreek Hill to just 62 yards on eight catches. Two weeks before that performance, they held Keenan Allen to just 55 yards. The Chiefs have allowed just two 100-yard receivers all season, and only one of them can be classified as a true No. 1 target. Hurts and the Eagles’ offense is impressive, but the Chiefs’ defense has simply been better than everyone this year.
Four of our five best sports betting sites have this prop set at 84.5. BetMGM and bet365 have the best prices for the Under at that number. You could also consider taking under 85.5 at FanDuel, but for a price of -114, the value is better at bet365.
–– Phil Wood (SBR | Twitter/X)
Jerick McKinnon Over 11.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Chiefs running back Jerick McKinnon is trading at 15.5 receiving yards through our other best live betting sites, so there’s a nice edge backing him to go Over 11.5 through FanDuel.
I also value the Pinnacle NFL trading team as an industry leader in pricing player props, and it's also listing McKinnon at 15.5.
Based on my projection of 17.7 receiving yards for McKinnon against the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football, I would price this Over at -156. The difference in my numbers and the -114 price at FanDuel checks out at a positive expected value of 14%.
McKinnon has an established role in the Kansas City offense, and he’s a proven pass-catcher who’s topped this total in four of the past five games and six of nine this season.
–– Neil Parker (SBR | Twitter/X)
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