Top Celtics Picks, Predictions for 2022-23 NBA Season: Juicy Odds on Tatum to Lead in Scoring
After a trip to the Finals and a noisy offseason, how will the Boston Celtics respond? Here are our top NBA picks and predictions for the Celtics in 2022-23.
The Celtics lost the NBA Finals in six games to Golden State after a thrilling run through the Eastern Conference and back-to-back seven-game series victories. The team added Malcolm Brogdon and Danilo Gallinari, but the latter will miss the entire season after tearing his ACL.
Boston’s head coach Ime Udoka has been suspended for the season, leaving Joe Mazzulla at the helm, and star center Robert Williams will miss the start of the season at a minimum. Can Boston maintain its place atop the Eastern Conference or will this be a season of disappointment?
Here are some Celtics bets I’m targeting for the 2022-23 NBA season (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).
Top 2022-23 Picks for the Celtics
- Malcolm Brogdon and Marcus Smart to each average 6+ assists per game (+1300)
- Jayson Tatum to be scoring leader (+3000)
- Celtics exact win total: 47-50 (+300)
Bets to Make on the Celtics
Brogdon and Smart to each average 6-plus assists per game (+1300)
Malcolm Brogdon was one of Boston’s key offseason acquisitions, and the team didn’t have to give up much to get him. Brogdon figures to lead Boston’s second unit as an adept facilitator and scorer off the bench. He’s averaged 6.3 assists per game over the last three seasons with the Indiana Pacers, including a career-high 7.1 in 2019-20. Brogdon was called on to be a primary scoring option in Indiana, but he won’t have such lofty offensive responsibilities in Boston.
Instead, he should be able to focus on getting teammates involved and playing his efficient style of basketball. His sixth man role in Boston should be a perfect fit after several years of shouldering the load for the Pacers.
Marcus Smart averaged 5.8 dimes over the last two seasons, dishing a career-best 5.9 in 2021-22. He’ll be the team’s starting point guard this season, and there’s no reason to believe he can’t up his assists output for the fourth straight season.
Check out our top Golden State Warriors picks for 2022-23.
Tatum to win scoring title (+3000)
This is one of my favorite futures bets for any NBA player or team. Tatum has been one of the NBA’s best scorers for the last two seasons, and he’s ready to take the next step in 2022-23. He averaged a career-high 26.9 points in the regular season and followed it up by dropping 27.0 per contest in the Eastern Conference playoffs. That average dropped precipitously in the NBA Finals, where Tatum mustered just 21.5 points per game on 36.7% shooting across six appearances.
There’s a clear motivation for him to come out aggressive on offense after falling short on the NBA’s biggest stage. The average age of NBA scoring champions is 25.9, while the average points per game is 30.9. Tatum won’t turn 25 until March 2023, and he still hasn’t hit his peak, so it wouldn’t be surprising for him to up his scoring average to 30-plus points per game and capture the scoring title. The last three forwards to win the scoring title (Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony, and LeBron James) averaged just 25.3 points per game in the season preceding their first scoring crown.
Boston’s roster is full of capable defenders, distributors and rebounders, but outside of Tatum and Jaylen Brown, there aren’t any guys known for their scoring abilities. There’s a perfect combination of team need, intrinsic motivation and elite skill that make Tatum’s odds to win the scoring title particularly juicy.
Celtics exact win total: 47-50 (+300)
The Celtics have one of the highest implied win totals in the NBA at 53.5, and I’m having a really tough time with it. On one hand, the core of Tatum (an MVP candidate), Brown, Defensive Player of the Year Smart, and Al Horford will all be back after a run to the Finals. The team added another quality ball-handler and facilitator in Brogdon, and this is clearly one of the most talented rosters in the Association.
On the other hand, the Celtics suspended their head coach for the entire season, Brown may be less than motivated after hearing his name floated out in potential Kevin Durant trades over the summer and elite defender Williams will be out to start the season with an unknown timeline for return. Those are just the internal factors. Externally, the Philadelphia 76ers will get a full year with James Harden, the Brooklyn Nets have their core of Durant, Kyrie Irving, and Ben Simmons ready to roll, and the Cleveland Cavaliers added Donovan Mitchell in a blockbuster trade.
Don’t forget about the Miami Heat who took Boston to seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Milwaukee Bucks with Giannis Antetkounmpo, and the Atlanta Hawks who added Dejounte Murray to pair with Trae Young. I can’t get behind a 54-win season for Boston, so rather than betting on the Over/Under, I’d prefer taking a stab at the exact win total. Boston should still be in the 50-win range, and I think 47-50 sounds more reasonable.
You can get that range for +300, which is far more appealing than the odds offered on the Over/Under 53.5.
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