Phillies vs. Astros MLB Picks, Predictions: Verlander Looks to Cap Off Cy Young Season
Justin Verlander takes the mound for the final time in the regular season as he looks to cap off a Cy Young campaign when the Houston Astros host the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday night. Here are our top Phillies-Astros picks for the occasion.
The Phillies finally ended their postseason drought on Monday night. Their 3-0 win over the Astros sent the Phils into a celebration, and it’s safe to assume that they may not be 100% for Tuesday's game.
On the other side, Astros ace Justin Verlander looks to cap off his Cy Young season with a win.
Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Tuesday’s Phillies vs. Astros game (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and Unibet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Phillies vs. Astros Game Info
Date: Tuesday, Oct. 4, 8:10 p.m. ET
TV: NBCSP, ATTH, TBS
Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
Weather: Indoors
Phillies vs. Astros Odds
Phillies vs. Astros Odds Analysis
The Astros opened at -180 on the moneyline and have moved to between -200 (DraftKings) and -220 (FanDuel Sportsbook). The -1.5 run line is at +115 (DraftKings) after a +125 opening. Houston has received most of the tickets and handle after Philadelphia’s playoff-clinching win on Monday.
The total opened at 7 but is down to 6.5 at a few books. Sixty-six percent of the tickets and 87% of the cash are on the Under.
Phillies vs. Astros Projected Pitchers
Ranger Suarez (10-6, 3.37 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) vs. Justin Verlander (17-4, 1.80 ERA, 0.85 WHIP)
Suarez has been a rock for the Phillies this season. The Phils are 17-11 in his starts and he allowed more than three earned runs in a start just once since the end of June. In fact, he allowed two or fewer earned runs in 16 of his 28 starts this season.
Verlander is the AL Cy Young favorite, and for good reason. He’s allowed no runs in 11 starts and one run in eight, making it 19 of 27 starts allowing one or fewer earned runs. The Astros are 19-8 in his starts (10-4 at home).
Phillies vs. Astros Picks
Phillies vs. Astros Run Line Pick
Astros -1.5 (+115) ★★★★
It’s very likely that the Phillies won’t play a few of their key starters Tuesday. On top of Monday night’s celebration, Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and others have dealt with injuries throughout the season. Giving them a night off only makes sense.
Even if the Phillies do have their full lineup, it’s hard to compete against Verlander. He’s looking to finish off the regular season with a bang and get ready for the postseason.
The Astros are 53-26 at home this season and 7-3 after getting shut out. They should be able to get a few runs off of Suarez with Verlander shutting the door.
Check out our MLB Best Bets for Tuesday's slate.
Phillies vs. Astros O/U Pick
Under 7 (-120) ★★★★
Verlander has been an Under machine this season with the Over/Under going 7-20 in his starts. One of those Overs came last time out with seven runs being scored in the game. That would result in a push on Tuesday's line.
Suarez should also hold up his end of the bargain and limit the Astros to only a few runs. We should be looking at a 3-0 or 4-1 win for the Astros.
Phillies vs. Astros Prop Pick
Verlander Over 6.5 strikeouts (+118 via Unibet) ★★★★
Verlander must be licking his chops with Tuesday's matchup. The Phillies should be trotting out their B lineup against one of the best pitchers in the game.
Verlander registered seven or more strikeouts in only 12 of his 27 starts this season. However, he did it in three of his last five starts and seven of his last 12. He also seems to be better at home, hitting the seven strikeout mark in eight of 14 starts at Minute Maid, including three double-digit performances. I’ll take the plus odds on him logging at least seven strikeouts Tuesday.
Where to Bet on Phillies-Astros Picks
Phillies-Astros picks from 10/4/2022 at 12:43 p.m. ET.
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