Sanderson Farms Championship Odds, Picks, PGA Tour Predictions: Burns Favorite to Defend

Fresh off victory with Team USA at the Presidents Cup, Sam Burns leads the PGA Tour to The Country Club of Jackson to defend his 2021 title as we offer up our top picks to win the Sanderson Farms Championship.

Burns' victory early in the fall swing last year was his first of three during the 2021-22 PGA Tour season. Entering this week at No. 12 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) the defending champion is a heavy favorite for the 2022 Sanderson Farms Championship at The Country Club of Jackson.

This week's field features a stronger American contingent with many of golf's top international stars competing in the DP World Tour's Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. Rory McIlroy is the heavy favorite overseas.

Here are our top picks and predictions for the 2022 Sanderson Farms Championship based on the odds at our top-rated sportsbooks. Check out our Sanderson Farms Championship power rankings here.

Sanderson Farms Championship Odds

Sanderson Farms Championship Odds Analysis

Burns is the only golfer in this week's field ranked inside the top 35 of the OWGR and only four others rank inside the top 50. As such, the odds vary considerably among our top-rated sportsbooks, even at the top of the board.

Denny McCarthy's implied win probability ranges from 3.45% at BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook to as high as 5.26% via DraftKings Sportsbook. Sepp Straka, who's the second-best golfer in this field based on the measure of the OWGR, is seemingly an outlier by the odds to win with a high price point of +500 available at DraftKings and BetMGM.

Burns opened at around +1400 in last year's event before going on to win by one stroke over Cameron Young (+30000) and Nick Watney (+30000).

Sanderson Farms Championship Picks

The Country Club of Jackson Course Profile

Par: 72
Length: 7,461 yards
Greens: Bermuda grass

Burns was one of six golfers in last year's field to score in the 60s in all four rounds and one of just three of the seven who did so while finishing the tournament at 20-under par or better. Twelve holes scored below par for the tournament. The easiest was the 591-yard, par-5 third at a scoring average of 4.519. The most difficult was the 479-yard, par-4 16th at an average of 4.163 strokes.

There was a total of 39 eagles scored on the four par 5s. They range from 554 to 612 yards. Six of the 10 par 4s played under par in 2021. Those range from 330 to 482 yards. The most common range is 400-450 yards with six such holes. Two of the four par 3s also played under par last year with those being the two shorter than 200 yards.

Sanderson Farms Championship Key Stats

• Strokes gained: approach
• Birdie or better percentage
• Proximity 125-150 yards
• Par-5 efficiency: 550-600 yards
• Par-4 efficiency: 400-450 yards

The length of The Country Club of Jackson can be combatted with positioning off the tee, so we don't need to differentiate too much between the longer and shorter hitters in the field. Our main focus is on strokes gained: approach, especially proximity from the key range of 125-150 yards. Scoring, especially on the par 5s and intermediate range of par 4s, rounds out our key stats.

Burns won last year's event despite losing 0.49 strokes per round with his putter. He led the field with 3.70 SG: tee-to-green and 1.54 SG: off-the-tee per round, and ranked second with 2.07 SG: approach per round.

Who Will Win the Sanderson Farms Championship?

Henley (+2500)

Russell Henley has played this event just twice with a T-54 finish in 2020 but a T-14 result in 2017. He didn't play in the Fortinet Championship two weeks so this will be his first tournament action since the BMW Championship; however, he's not far removed from back-to-back top-10 finishes at the Rocket Mortgage Classic (T-10) and Wyndham Championship (fifth), both against stronger fields than this.

While we're paying a premium for the 55th-ranked golfer in the OWGR, we are getting value in the odds available via BetMGM relative to the other books. Henley also ranked second on the PGA Tour in SG: approach, 11th in birdie or better percentage, and T-16 in proximity: 125-150 yards last season. He's third in this field in SG: approach over his last 16 rounds.

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.

Mullinax (+4500)

Trey Mullinax ranks sixth in this field and third among those with 16 measured rounds with 0.91 SG: approach per round across his last four-and-a-half events. He's also second among qualified golfers with 1.63 SG: total per round in that time.

Mullinax's top showing in this event was a T-4 last season. That came with 0.74 strokes lost around the greens per round. The 30-year-old claimed his first PGA Tour win at last year's Barbasol Championship in July and shouldn't have odds this high in another weak field given his strong recent form despite his missed cut at the Fortinet Championship two weeks ago.

Todd (+8000)

Brendon Todd finished T-9 at the Fortinet Championship while ranking fourth among those who made the cut with 1.34 SG: approach per round. That was his third top-10 finish through 20 events in 2022.

The three-time PGA Tour winner claimed his two most recent titles during the fall swing in 2019. He's one of the most accurate drivers on Tour and can make up for his lack of distance off the tee with smart positioning at The Country Club of Jackson.

Where to Bet on the PGA Tour

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Sanderson Farms Championship picks made on 9/27/2022 at 11 a.m. ET.