Texas A&M vs. Alabama Picks, Predictions College Football Week 6: No Young, No Problem?
QB Bryce Young was ruled out by the Alabama Crimson Tide for their Week 6 clash with Texas A&M. Will it matter? Check out our top Texas A&M-Alabama picks below.
With Young ruled out due to a shoulder injury on Friday, Jalen Milroe draws the start for No. 1 Alabama. Milroe, a freshman, completed four of nine passes for 65 yards and a touchdown in place of Young last week. He also rushed for 91 yards and a score on the ground. It seems 'Bama may be just fine without its reigning Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback.
Texas A&M was highly hyped coming into the season, thanks to head coach Jimbo Fisher's recruiting class, but the Aggies have started 3-2 with a 42-24 loss to Mississippi State last week. This matchup had been circled by many bettors but it has lost some of its luster as Alabama is now favored by a consensus line of 23.5 points.
Be sure to check out our college football best bets and all of our Week 6 picks.
Here are our college football picks for the Week 6 matchup between Texas A&M and Alabama. (odds via BetMGM and DraftKings Sportsbooks; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
Texas A&M vs. Alabama Game Info
Date: Saturday, Oct. 8, 8 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
Weather: 61 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 6-7-mph winds N
Texas A&M vs. Alabama Odds
Texas A&M vs. Alabama Odds Analysis
The line has stayed at the consensus opening number of Alabama -24, as it had been presumed that Young would sit out with the Crimson Tide so heavily favored. The Tide have drawn 79% of the tickets and 87% of the handle on the spread.
The Over/Under has dropped from 52 to 48 with Young's absence official. The Over has drawn 78% of the tickets but just 30% of the handle in the primetime spot.
Texas A&M vs. Alabama Picks
Texas A&M vs. Alabama ATS Pick
Texas A&M +24.5 (-110) ★★★
For Texas A&M to be competitive on Saturday night, it’s clear that the defense will have to step up in a big way. With all four defensive line starters from a year ago departing, the Aggies are starting a pair of freshmen up front this season.
Regardless of talent, inexperience naturally leads to growing pains. In this case, Texas A&M’s inexperience shows up in the form of 186.0 rushing yards allowed per game. That mark ranks 98th out of 131 FBS teams. A much better defensive effort against the run will be needed to contain Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs.
The Aggies’ secondary has more than lived up to its preseason billing as one of the best in the country. Texas A&M will presumably have an advantage over the talented but inexperienced Crimson Tide receiving corps with Milroe under center.
Texas A&M vs. Alabama O/U Pick
Under 52 (-110) ★★
Based on the betting splits for the total, the Under is certainly a contrarian play. It also goes against the grain of recent series history as the two teams have combined for 68, 75, 76, and 79 points in the last four head-to-head meetings.
It’s also important to acknowledge the state of chaos that the Texas A&M offense is in. While the unit was at least able to move the ball against Mississippi State last week, four turnovers and failure to convert in the red zone were firm reminders that there is still work to be done.
It’s unknown whether Max Johnson or Haynes King will start at quarterback on Saturday. What we do know is that star receiver Ainias Smith will not play again this season. This is a massive blow to an Aggies’ passing attack that was sputtering even with Smith in the fold. It also figures to be tough sledding on the ground for Devin Achane against a Crimson Tide defense that has allowed the ninth fewest rushing yards per game of any FBS team.
It should also be duly noted that Texas A&M comes in tied with New Mexico for the fewest plays run on a per-game basis of any FBS team. The Aggies are likely to milk every second of the play clock to keep the ball away from the Alabama offense.
Texas A&M vs. Alabama Prop Pick
Alabama team total: Under 38.5 (-125) ★★★
Not only can Alabama’s team total be found at 37.5 elsewhere in the market, but it is actually juiced to the Under at those lower offerings. As such, the DraftKings line of 38.5 is offering solid market value.
Texas easily has the best defense of any team the Crimson Tide have faced so far this season. While that game was played in Austin, the fact that Alabama scored only 20 points cannot be ignored.
Not only does Texas A&M have an even more talented defense than that of the Longhorns, but the Aggies’ secondary might very well have an advantage over Alabama’s young receiving corps. Of course, surpassing the 38-point mark will become that much tougher if the Tide are forced to go without their Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback.
Where to Bet on Texas A&M vs. Alabama Picks
Texas A&M-Alabama picks made 10/5/2022 at 6:53 p.m. ET
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