Election odds: Romney the favorite for Republican nomination in 2012

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Yahoo Politics forecasts that Mitt Romney has a 65.6% likelihood of victory in the 2012 Republican primary. Fellow candidates Newt Gingrich's chances are declining, while candidates Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman have failed to gain steam. Mitt Romney's chances are attributed to his popularity in Iowa; a key state in determining who will ultimately receive the Republican nomination for President.

Yahoo Politics figures are helped by prediction market data supplied by Betfair (SBR rating A-). Curacao based bookmaker Pinnacle Sports (SBR rating A+)  has Mitt Romney as better than a 2 to 1 favorite (-221) to receive the nomination, while Canadian bookmaker Bovada.lv (SBR rating A) has Romney at -200.

To win the Republican nomination


  • Pinnacle Sports: Romney -221
  • Bovada.lv: Romney -200 | Gingrich +450 | Paul +700 | Huntsman +1400
  • SBR Points Sportsbook: Romney -250 | Gingrich +500 | Paul +800 | Huntsman +1350

Yahoo Politics:



Gingrich's decline in Iowa is persistent and sharp, his possible routes to the Republican nomination increasingly limited. He has trailed Paul or Romney in each of the last 4 polls of Iowa voters (Rasmussen, ISU, PPP, Insider Advantage); in the last 2 polls, he trails both of them by a sizable margin. Contrast that with how things looked on December 12: prediction markets had Gingrich's likelihood of winning Iowa near 60 percent.

To discuss the 2012 election, political betting odds and more, swing by the SBRforum Politics & Economics section.


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