White Sox-Reds: Feeling Like a Cincy & ‘Over’ Holiday Parlay

Tuesday, July 3, 2018 4:19 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 3, 2018 4:19 PM UTC

It’s a less-than-stellar pitching matchup from Cincinnati on Wednesday night as the White Sox and Reds close out an interleague series on national TV.

Chicago White Sox at CincinnatiFree MLB Pick: Reds & OverBest Line Offered: BetOnline

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Probably no day on the calendar is more intertwined with baseball than the July 4 holiday in the United States. The Chicago White Sox and Cincinnati Reds conclude their three-game interleague set at Great American Ball Park with a 7 p.m. ET start time on ESPN – one of three games on the network on Independence Day.

I try to be a glass half-full type of guy, but there’s not a heck of lot to say positive about either the White Sox or Reds as both franchises are in full-blown rebuilding mode. Frankly it benefits both to lose as much as possible and get the top pick in the 2019 draft. The Reds probably have no realistic shot at that as they’ve played around .500 baseball since firing Manager Bryan Price (when team was 3-15) and replacing him with Jim Riggleman, who might be earning the full-time gig. Cincinnati hasn’t lost a series since June 15-17 in Pittsburgh and actually has the best record in baseball since June 10.

Chicago loses the designated hitter in the National League park and that’s usually a spot held by Matt Davidson. However, he leads the team in homers and on-base percentage (surprising for the latter since he strikes out a ton) and thus there’s a good chance he’ll be in there at third base. In addition, the team’s best offensive player, Jose Abreu, is day-to-day after leaving Monday’s loss with a bruised left ankle after fouling a ball off it.

If the White Sox have a lead entering the bottom of the ninth, that’s probably a W because closer Joakim Soria has been fantastic. Entering this series, he was working on a scoreless inning streak of 17.1 innings. Probably not likely the Pale Hose have a ninth-inning lead considering how bad they have been on the road this year (13-28 as of Tuesday).

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Four-run rallies are fun to watch!#RedsCountry pic.twitter.com/Hg24dBAHSm

— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) July 3, 2018
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Probable Pitchers: Covey vs. Romano

Both bullpens are likely to be heavily used in this one because neither starting pitcher is very good – that’s why this has the highest total on the board.

It’s second-year Dylan Covey for Chicago. Last year, he was maybe the worst pitcher in baseball with a 0-7 record and 7.71 ERA – good for a WAR of -1.4. This year he has been a bit better are 3-3 with a 4.82 ERA and a WAR of -0.1. Covey was decent in his first six starts (began year in minors) but is 0-2 with a 12.72 ERA in his past three – failing to last more than five innings in any. He was torched for nine runs and four homers in just 2.1 innings of a loss at Texas on Friday.

This will be Covey’s first career look at the Reds. He did face the Brewers in interleague action on June 3 and didn’t allow an earned run in five innings. Maybe he should ask for a trade to the Senior Circuit.

Cincinnati’s Sal Romano (4-8, 5.30) is also in his second season. He’s regressing as Romano was 5-8 with a 4.45 ERA last year for a WAR of 0.4 but is 4-8 with a 5.30 ERA in 2018 with a WAR of -0.4. He comes off a loss to the Brewers, allowing two runs over five innings. “He faced 25 batters in five innings. That's not going to cut it," Riggleman said.

Romano rarely gets to the sixth inning. Left-handers are hitting .302 against him. It’s Romano’s first career look at the White Sox.

  • White Sox are 1-11 in Covey’s last 12 road starts.
  • Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series.
  • Over is 10-3 in White Sox’s last 13 overall.
  • Over is 4-0-1 in Romano’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.

Covey has a 6.85 ERA in five road appearances this season, while Romano has a 4.77 home ERA. Great American Ball Park is a hitters’ paradise and said hitters should have a field day against these pitchers on a hot night with the ball carrying. Take the Reds and the ‘over’ for a July 4 MLB parlay.

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