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UFC on ESPN 12 | Poirier vs. Hooker | Last Chance Value Picks

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Saturday’s main event between Dustin Poirier and Dan Hooker has everyone’s attention, but the value for your UFC picks is further down the card.

MMA fans in Austin will have to wait another day. Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 12 card was supposed to be a Fight Night event at the Frank Erwin Center, but COVID-19 had other ideas. The original event was canceled on May 21, then reshuffled and put in the UFC Apex building in Las Vegas; Dustin Poirier and Dan Hooker are still in the main event, but the rest of the card is barely recognizable. This is a good thing – when you’re making UFC picks. There’s always value to be found lower on the card, and there’s even more when plans change and replacement fighters are brought in on short notice. Which brings us to two fights in particular that we have our eye on here at the home office:

Kyle Daukaus vs. Brendan Allen

Middleweight Fight
Saturday, June 27, 2020 – 08:00 PM EDT

UFC Fight Odds

In a way, Allen (14-3 lifetime, 2-0 UFC) may have lost some betting value when Ian Heinisch pulled out of this bout, a decision that was first announced on June 16. Heinisch was going to make a very quick turnaround after beating Gerald Meerschaert on June 6 via first-round TKO. Instead, Daukaus (9-0 lifetime), the reigning Middleweight champion for Cage Fury FC, will make his official Octagon debut. Fading someone like Daukaus coming in on such short notice is par for the course. Indeed, Allen has already moved from –285 at the open to –315 on Bovada’s UFC odds board. But this is actually a competitive matchup on paper between two somewhat similar athletes. Both made their names with victories in Dana White’s Contender Series, and both are submission specialists. Let’s put a pin in this one for now.

Julian Erosa vs. Sean Woodson

Catchweight Fight
Saturday, June 27, 2020 – 06:30 PM EDT

UFC Fight Odds

Here’s a fight that got changed just a few days ago. Woodson (7-0 lifetime, 1-0 UFC) was due to face Kyle Nelson, but thanks to visa issues – Nelson is Canadian and fights out of Ontario – Erosa (23-8 lifetime, 0-3 UFC) will get another crack at the Octagon. Erosa, who appeared on The Ultimate Fighter 22, lost each of his three UFC fights after winning on the Contender Series in 2018 and was back in CageSport for his most recent fight in February. No offense to the man they call Juicy J, but unlike Daukaus, Erosa has already shown that he wasn’t competitive at the UFC level – and he’s taking this fight on three days’ notice. Woodson, another Contender Series product, has yet to lose anywhere. He’s the biggest favorite on the card at –475, so if you’re willing to eat some chalk, get on board, and may the Octagon be with you.

Free UFC Pick:

Woodson-475
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