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Judges' Cards: UFC Fight Night Vieira vs. Tate Expert Betting Picks

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Judges' Cards: UFC Fight Night Vieira vs. Tate Expert Betting Picks
Miesha Tate reacts during UFC 205 Weigh-ins at Madison Square Garden. Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images via AFP.

Ketlen Vieira and Miesha Tate headline Saturday’s UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas. We break down the entire UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs Tate card with our expert betting picks.

If Tate was showing any ring rust in her return to the octagon in July, she used her fists to violently knock it off onto Marion Reneau’s skull. Coming back from a four-year retirement, Tate put the women’s bantamweight division on notice with her venomous ground-and-pound finish of Reneau. She’ll look to continue her ascent up the 135-pound ladder with a potential victory over Vieira.

Once considered a strong contender for Amanda Nunes’ bantamweight crown, the shine has come off of Vieira’s apple a bit in the past couple of years. Since winning her first four bouts in the UFC, Vieira has alternated wins and losses, with her most recent loss coming at the hands of Yana Kunitskaya in February.

A win over a legend like Tate would go a long way in proving Vieira’s contender merits.   

Our experts offer up their picks and best bets for the entire UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate card.

UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate Expert Picks

Fight odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of November 18, 2021. UFC Fight Night: Vieira versus Tate picks made by Denis Lipka, Kyle Smith, and Johnny Covers.

Prelims

LipkaSmithCovers
Luana Pinheiro (-435) vs. Sam Hughes (+330)PinheiroPinheiroPinheiro
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (+220) vs. Sean Soriano (-275)SorianoSorianoNuerdanbieke
Cody Durden (-160) vs. Aori Qileng (+140)QilengDurdenQileng
Terrance McKinney (-105) vs. Fares Ziam (-115)McKinneyMcKinneyMcKinney
Loma Lookboonmee (+140) vs. Loopy Godinez (-160)LookboonmeeLookboonmeeLookboonmee
Rafa Garcia (-115) vs. Natan Levy (-105)GarciaGarciaGarcia
Pat Sabatini (-115) vs. Tucker Lutz (-105)LutzLutzLutz

Main card

LipkaSmithCovers
Davey Grant (+250) vs. Adrian Yanez (-320)YanezGrantYanez
Joanne Wood (+290) vs. Taila Santos (-380)SantosSantosSantos
Rani Yahya (-105) vs. Kyung Ho Kang (-115)Ho KangYahyaYahya
Michael Chiesa (+155) vs. Sean Brady (-180)BradyBradyChiesa
Ketlen Vieira (-115) vs. Miesha Tate (-105)TateTateTate

SEE ALSO: Vieira vs. Tate Picks

UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate Betting Locks

Pinheiro (-435) vs. Hughes

Pinheiro headlines the biggest line of the event as Hughes took this fight on just 10 days’ notice. Pinheiro has been dominant, with five submissions and two knockouts on her nine-win resume. Hughes lacks the ground game required to defend herself from Pinheiro’s best skill.

Hughes earned a shot at LFA gold in her fifth professional fight, only to succumb to a comeback submission from Vanessa Demopoulos. Though she got back on track by choking out Danielle Hindley, she’s 0-2 in the octagon after falling to Tecia Torres and Lookboonmee. – Lipka

Pinheiro to win (-435)

Pinheiro is the largest favorite on the card for good reason. Look for her to completely overwhelm Hughes for a round or two until she’s able to secure a fight-ending submission. – Smith

Yahya to win (-105)

While Ho Kang comes in with the size advantage, it’s hard for me to look away from the gap in opponent experience between these two on Saturday. I’m by no means saying Yahya has a statement win of his own, but Ho Kang has fought just six times in the United States and Saturday will mark his first fight in Las Vegas.

Having not fought in two years, I expect the rust for Ho Kang to be very present as well. – Covers

SEE ALSO: Chiesa vs. Brady Picks

UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate Top Underdog Picks

Lookboonmee (+140) vs. Godinez

This is a card of massive underdogs until the headliners. Lookboonmee is a more interesting pick than the other options because she has the reach advantage over Godinez and has had more time to train. Godinez stepped in on under two weeks’ notice and hasn’t been sharp in her few fights in the UFC. 

I’d look for a TKO from Lookboonmee if she wins. Her significant strikes per minute rate is a shocking 5.27 number, which laps most women fighters. Godinez has the distinct advantage when it comes to the ground game but these fights often resort to stand-up battles. Godinez only wins if her game planning is significantly better than what we’ve seen from her thus far. – Lipka

Lookboonmee to win (+140)

Lookboonmee will stuff Lupita Godinez’s takedowns and outwork her on their feet, and in the clinch, en route to a unanimous decision victory. – Smith

Chiesa (+135)

One of the more underrated welterweights fighting right now, I like Chiesa to put the division on a bit of notice. With wins under his belt over Beneil Dariush, Rafael dos Anjos, and Neil Magny, the No. 6 contender should take exception to a relative newcomer in Brady getting a shot like this. 

With just four fights in the UFC, I think Brady gets a shock in this one in the form of unconsciousness. – Covers

UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate Top Prop Picks

Pinheiro win by submission (+200)

How good is Pinheiro at submissions? Her odds to win by submission are almost as good as her odds to win by decision. She’s a heavy favorite for good reason.

She’ll use her strong standup game to threaten Hughes into a corner and then take her down prior to making Hughes tap. This will be one-sided, and I think Pinheiro ragdolls Hughes to make a statement. – Lipka

Wood vs. Santos- Fight to be won by Unanimous Decision (-135), Fight to be won by Split or Majority decision (+330)

Four of Wood’s last five bouts have gone to a decision, with two of those results ending in a split decision. All four of Santos’ UFC bouts have gone to decision, and her lone loss came via split decision. In conclusion, this bout is heading to the judges’ scorecards, and if you’re feeling a bit greedy, you can throw some cash down on a split. – Smith

Yahya/Ho Kang Total Rounds – Over 2.5 (-155)

This fight is essentially dead even on paper according to the oddsmakers, and I think that’s how we see it play out. Additionally, five of the last six fights for these two fighters went to the judges’ scorecards and all things point toward a similar outcome on Saturday. – Covers

SEE ALSO: Yahya vs. Ho Kang Picks

UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate Bold Prediction

Chiesa gets dominated

Brady is clearly the up-and-comer in this matchup, and he’s looking to extend his 14-0 record against a quality veteran who can grind out wins. Chiesa is good enough to stick around for years to come, as he has won four of his last five fights because he knows his limitations. 

It won’t matter against the more explosive Brady. Brady’s delivering significant strikes almost 2.5 times more often than his counterpart and is 15 percent more accurate with his attempts. Watch for Brady to surprise Chiesa with his improved ground game and defense en route to a big win. – Lipka

Tate to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+750)

Tate’s improbable march toward another UFC title shot will likely continue via unanimous decision should she emerge victorious on Saturday night. As an incredibly seasoned veteran who has faced the division’s very best, it wouldn’t surprise me if she finished Vieira with some nasty ground-and-pound at some point during the championship rounds. – Smith

Loma Lookboonmee to win (+140)

With her only loss inside the UFC coming to former Invicta Champion Angela Hill, Lookboonmee has won three of her last four fights, including a big victory over Hughes in May at the Apex.

Godinez has lost two of her last three bouts and fought just one month ago in a decision loss to Luana Carolina.

I expect Loma to continue her winning ways and think the wrong combatant is favored in this fight. – Covers

SEE ALSO: All UFC Picks and Odds