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UFC Fight Night Best Bets: Can Lewis Beat Spivac?

Themi Alexis

Last Updated: February 4, 2023 3:52 PM EST • 3 min 23 sec read.

UFC predictions
UFC predictions

The UFC’s latest event at the Apex sees Derrick Lewis aim to get back in the win column against Serghei Spivac in a heavyweight headliner. Can Lewis make it happen? Read on for our top UFC Vegas 68 bets based on the odds from our best sportsbooks.

Lewis meets Spivac on a two-fight skid, falling to both Sergei Pavlovich and Tai Tuivasa via strikes in a lackluster 2022. The fan favorite’s UFC record sits at 17-8, with his baker’s dozen KO/TKO victories making him the promotion’s all-time knockout king.

As for Spivac, the Moldovan native heads to Vegas after back-to-back knockouts of Augusto Sakai and Greg Hardy this past year. The 28-year-old went 6-3 over his UFC stint, with four of his Octagon victories coming inside the distance.

In the light heavyweight co-main event, Da-Un Jung squares off with Devin Clark. Jung looks to rebound from a KO loss to Dustin Jacoby last July, while Clark suffered a TKO loss courtesy of Azamat Murzakanov this past August.

Here are our best UFC Vegas 68 picks (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our UFC best bets.

UFC Vegas 68 Schedule & Odds

(odds via Caesars)

Main Card (1 a.m. EST):

  • Derrick Lewis (+205) vs. Serghei Spivac (-245)
  • Da-Un Jung (-240) vs. Devin Clark (+200)
  • Marcin Tybura (-140) vs. Blagoy Ivanov (+120)
  • Doo Ho Choi (-180) vs. Kyle Nelson (+155)
  • Yusaku Kinoshita (-340) vs. Adam Fugitt (+270)

Prelims (10 p.m. EST):

  • Jeka Saragih (-110) vs. Anshul Jubli (-110)
  • Jeong Yeong Lee (-240) vs. Yi Zha (+200)
  • Toshiomi Kazama (+350) vs. Rinya Nakamura (-450)
  • Seung Guk Choi (+170) vs. Hyun Sung Park (-200)
  • Ji Yeon Kim (-280) vs. Mandy Bohm (+230)
  • Jun Yong Park (-230) vs. Denis Tiuliulin (+190)
  • Tatsuro Taira (-1200) vs. Jesus Santos Aguilar (+750)

UFC Vegas 68 Best Bets

  • Fight line: Choi ML vs. Nelson (-180 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Upset: Lewis ML vs. Spivac (+205 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Winning method: Kim by decision vs. Bohm (-130 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Prop bet: Lewis by KO/TKO vs. Spivac (+240 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Parlay: Lewis (+205)+Choi (-180) +Jun Yong Park (-230) = +581 (via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

Top Picks for UFC Vegas 68

Fight Line: Choi ML vs. Nelson (-180 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

Seung Guk Choi ends a lengthy layoff with Kyle Nelson, but he faces a man who’s folded to strikes in two of four UFC losses and trails him in significant strikes landed per minute (5.32 to 3.34) and knockdown average (1.64 to a nothingburger). “The Korean Superboy” boasts a right hand missile, but was too willing to oblige foes with past firefights. So long as he can resist the urge to brawl, he should find a home for his right hand and maybe even put Nelson away early to win.

Upset: Lewis ML vs. Spivac (+205 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

He may be the best bad fighter on UFC's roster, but Lewis fared surprisingly well against grapplers of Spivac’s ilk, escaping dicey positions on the mat and dispatching Curtis Blaydes, Marcin Tybura, and Aleksei Oleinik over his UFC stint. Flawed as he is, Lewis has a granite right hand, which should earn him some respect from a game, yet comparatively green Spivac. Look for Lewis to bully his way out of some precarious spots on the floor before treating Spivac to his formidable power and padding his UFC knockout record. More on that below.

Winning Method: Kim by decision vs. Bohm (-130 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

This one is bound to go the distance, as Ji Yeon Kim saw the scorecards in all but one of her nine UFC contests, while Mandy Bohm dropped two decisions in as many promotional showings. Kim is no one’s idea of a world-beater, but she gets a favorable stylistic matchup in Bohm, who’s been outworked in both her walks to the Octagon.

The Korean flyweight loves claiming the center and chucking leather, while Bohm prefers to move laterally and work from space. Kim’s significant strike output nearly doubles Bohm’s (5.79 to. 2.93 landed per minute), and with Bohm averaging over four significant strikes absorbed per minute, Kim should control the Octagon, remain the busier flyweight, and outland Bohm for a much-needed win on points.

Prop Bet: Lewis by KO/TKO vs. Spivac (+240 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

To piggy-back off our upset pick, it’s difficult to choose Lewis without betting on another thunderous KO/TKO to add to his astounding totals. Not only does he boast 13 UFC knockouts and 21 total in 26 pro victories, he also gets a dance partner who’s fallen to strikes in two of three UFC losses. While Spivac fared well against a few purebred strikers, he’s been quickly overwhelmed by swift starters in Tom Aspinall and Walt Harris. Even if Lewis doesn’t come out swangin’ and bangin’, he’ll only need one clean right hand to leave Spivac counting the lights. With five rounds to work, he lands it and gets back in the win column in most violent fashion.

Parlay: Lewis (+205) + Choi (-180) + Jun Yong Park (-230) = +581 (via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

UFC best bets made 2/4/2023 at 12:21 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Themi Alexis
Themistoklis Alexis is a writer and editor based in Montreal, Quebec. He earned his degree in Journalism from Centennial College in Toronto before working for theScore as an MMA news editor from 2016 to 2018, contributing news stories, fight recaps, and features. His introduction to the sport came in 2007 with Randy Couture's thrashing of Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 74, and he's since spent countless hours watching people in far better shape than him sling zingers in four-ounce gloves. When he isn't getting his regularly scheduled dose of on-screen ultraviolence or losing sleep over his weekly MMA picks, he enjoys reading, watching old films, sketching, and podcasting about filmmakers from bygone eras of cinema.