UFC Fight Night Parlay: Mexico City


Record: 24-17

In a rare spot, we are going to start our night off with a parlay. The first two fights on the card offer some sneaky value and it will be an awesome way to get the fight night started sweating and cashing a nice easy parlay.

1st Leg: Kyle Nelson -275

Claudio Puelles is a 23-year-old prospect that kicks the night off for UFC Mexico City. Claudio has had 2 fights in the UFC and has split those fights going 1-1. He is an aggressive young finisher and he looked like a prospect that the UFC is looking to make something of.

He made his UFC debut against Martin Bravo and dropped it like so many new fighters do, but he bounced back with a come from behind kneebar in round 3 showing some serious toughness. Claudio’s striking leaves something to be desired, but the kid is good on the mat.

Claudio faces off against Marcos Mariano who is a friend of the great Anderson Silva, but I have a suspicion that is the only reason Marcos is even in the UFC. Marcos is a kickboxer and he has no ground game. I don’t say that lightly. He has ZERO ground game.

In most of his fights, the first takedown is successful and once he hits his back he gives up position in record-breaking time. While he is on the feet Marcos is a good striker, but he seems tentative and hesitant at times. In his MMA fights, this is more than likely the fear of being taken down.

Claudio Puelles

  • 23 years old

  • 8-2

  • 5 of 8 wins by submission

  • 88% finish rate

Marcos Mariano

  • 32 years old

  • 6-5

  • 2 wins by KO

  • 3 losses by submission

When you hear that a guy is a kickboxer who trains with Anderson Silva you would think he would be a complete beast. Mariano has only 2 KOs to his name and is less than impressive with his 6-5 record.

Puelles will be tough enough to wade through anything that Marcos can throw at him and will be able to grab one of those long skinny chicken legs and put Marcos on the mat. Once this fight hits the mat Marcos will not be getting back up.

Claudio’s submission threat is enough for legit UFC fighters and Marcos will once again be shown he doesn’t belong.

Anchor: Sijara Eubanks -261

Sijara Eubanks was until recently cutting down to 125 and that was just too much for her. She is so thick and strong that making 125 was killing her and when she moved up to 135 the familiar face of Aspen Ladd was there to greet her.

Eubanks has an uninspired record of 4-3 in MMA and that sounds terrible, but 2 of those 3 losses are to “the next big thing’ Aspen Ladd.

Sijara is still very much improving in her MMA game and her striking is showing leaps and bounds from when we first saw her on the ultimate fighter. She is explosive and fights almost like a female Yoel Romero lifting women up and slamming them to the mat.

Sarj’s opponent is former title challenger Bethe Correia. Bethe made herself known to the world when she savagely told Ronda Rousey “Don’t Cry’ in the lead up to their fight. Well, she poked that bear with a stick and paid the price for it.

Including her loss to Ronda in 2015 Bethe is 1-4-1 in her last 6 and between you and me that draw should have been another loss. Perhaps one of the biggest falls from grace the UFC has ever seen after starting 9-0. Bethe is a worse version of Eubanks. She is thick and strong, but her striking is limited and predictable.

She does carry power, but she doesn’t make use of it since her opponents tend to see her strikes coming a mile away. She isn’t particularly good on the ground and the best thing I can say about Bethe is that she’s durable. Given the skid she is on I wouldn’t be shocked if she hangs up the gloves soon.

Sijara Eubanks

  • 34 years old

  • 67-inch reach

  • 2.33 takedowns landed per 15 minutes

  • BJJ black belt

Bethe Correia

  • 36 years old

  • 64-inch reach

  • 85% takedown defense

  • BJJ blue belt

The difference in the ground games of these two women is insane. Bethe stands no chance against Sarj on the mat and that is the reason for how wide this line is. I fully expect Sarj to pick Bethe apart on the feet and then body her to the mat. Once the fight is in Sarj’s world I expect her to make quick work of Bethe.

This parlay is not based on the fact that either fighter we are betting is a world beater, but based on the fact that they are both being served up cupcakes. The UFC wants these two to win and their opponents being hand-picked good stylistic matchups for them is clear as day to anybody looking.

The young 8-2 prospect in Puelles needs a confidence fight and Bethe is being used as a lamb to slaughter to put some shine back on Eubanks after her loss to Ladd. These two should come through and we can start UFC Mexico City off on the right foot pocketing some easy units.

Parlay: Claudio Puelles (-275) + Sijara Eubanks (-261) with Pinnacle -112