UFC 263 Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori II First Look: Odds, Betting Picks and Predictions

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UFC 263 Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori II First Look: Odds, Betting Picks and Predictions
Israel Adesanya in Las Vegas, Nevada. Harry How/Getty Images/AFP

The UFC will travel to Arizona in front of a packed arena for a highly anticipated pay-per-view event. The UFC middleweight and flyweight titles are on the line for a double-header main event.

Here is our complete betting guide taking a first look at Israel Adesanya versus Marvin Vettori. They will head-line the UFC 263 fight card with the middleweight championship up for grabs; read on for the updated UFC odds and our free expert betting predictions.

Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori

UFC Middleweight Championship Main Event

Saturday, June 12, 2021 – 11:35 PM ET at Gila River Arena

Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya (20-1-0)

The current undefeated middleweight champ returns to the octagon after suffering his first professional MMA loss whilst attempting to steal the light heavyweight championship from Jan Blachowicz. Adesanya’s efforts at becoming a two-division champion were cut short by some Polish power, but do not be fooled, the middleweight king has returned to 185lbs with a score to settle and a gold strap to defend.

Nigerian-born; New-Zealand native Israel Adesanya has lived a prosperous mixed martial arts career. Former boxer (6-1) and former kickboxer (80-5) is no shock to the system when you realize how talented his striking offense is once the cage door closes.

From a personal standpoint, Adesanya is one of the most highly skilled kickboxers that UFC has ever signed to their company. He remains one of the fastest rising stars, debuting in 2018 to capture the middleweight title a mere 20 months later.

Israel Adesanya MMA Accomplishments

  • UFC Middleweight Champion (One time, current)
  • UFC Fight of the Night (Two times)
  • UFC Performance of the Night (Five times)
  • Most Knockdowns During a Title Fight in UFC history (4)

Israel Adesanya Best Available Odds: -235 with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Israel Adesanya. Harry How/Getty Images/AFP

Marvin Vettori (17-3-1)

The first Italian born UFC competitor to earn his opportunity at gold, Marvin Vettori, will step into the octagon with a familiar foe. For the second time during his UFC career, “The Italian Dream” will attempt to put his ultimate stamp on the middleweight division and dethrone the unformidable opponent in Israel Adesanya.

Since moving to Kings MMA gym in California, it has become evident that Vettori has reached a new pinnacle during his professional career. Refined striking skills under Rafael Cordeiro and an ever-growing wrestling offense training alongside Mark Munoz and Markus Mollica have evolved Vettori to new heights. He is often known to be first inside the gym and the last man to leave – his work ethic is highly praised, and it certainly shows when he competes.

Since July of 2019, a five-fight win streak in the UFC’s middleweight division has now pitted the Italian native for his second rodeo against Israel Adesanya – the key difference pointing towards a middleweight championship and a five-round battle that will provide some new variables.

Marvin Vettori MMA Accomplishments

  • UFC Performance of the Night (One time)
  • UFC Fight of the Night (One time)

Marvin Vettori Available Odds: +200 with BetOnline

UFC Fight Night: Marvin Vettori vs. Kevin Holland
Marvin Vettori of Italy. Christian Petersen/Getty Images/AFP

How Can Vettori Win?

We have the most idealistic tape study for the contest in front of us; these two men had already fought back in 2018. But Vettori has undoubtedly updated his skillset since their first encounter.

The huge question is, how can Vettori win a striking battle against the champ?

I honestly struggle to envision a world where this game plan could win Vettori the title across twenty-five minutes. Vettori owns a great jab and some heavy leg kicks, but I do not believe a stand-up war will favor him outside these two critical attacks.

It must be the takedown offense game plan, surely? Vettori has drilled his wrestling repertoire for many years to compliment the BJJ brown belt he possesses.

How Can Adesanya Win?

The champ managed the distance between himself and Vettori in an emphatic fashion during the first scrap, which does not alter for Adesanya in most of his professional contests. Standing at 6 foot 4 inches with an 80” arm reach, he becomes a problematic striker for anybody to face when this is combined with a lifelong professional striking experience.

Most opponents become frustrated when attempting to stand and bang with Stylebender; using faints to draw his opponents' defense leaves them completely open for the kicks and punches he wants to land.

Marvin Vettori
Marvin Vettori of Italy walks back to his corner during the UFC 207. Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images/AFP

Adesanya vs. Vettori II Betting Odds Advice

The top sportsbooks' current odds are justifiable, and I do expect the champion to retain his title. Sure, the takedown defense of Adesanya was compromised by Jan Blachowicz. Still, a natural middleweight who failed to upgrade his actual fight weight played a big part in those late takedowns taking place.

I do not anticipate Vettori being able to utilize a wrestling game plan for a long enough period to sway the judge’s scorecard. I predict that Adesanya will deliver yet another striking masterclass, force Vettori to open himself up with faints and outstrike the challenger.

However, the UFC odds for the fight to go the distance are more tempting because the durability and toughness of both men are equally impressive. I find value in this play.

UFC 263 Betting Pick: Fight goes the distance at -165 (Sportsbook TBD)

UFC 263 Alternative Betting Pick: Adesanya to win by decision at +140 (Sportsbook TBD)


*The pick reflects the line now the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, do not forget to refer to our live odds.