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UFC 251: 'The Dogs and Their Odds' Betting Picks and Predictions

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  • DaveBets
UFC 251: 'The Dogs and Their Odds' Betting Picks and Predictions

The Ultimate Fighting Championships (UFC) vision to continue through the COVID-19 pandemic has been solidly accomplished. With thanks to Dana White we’re back again for another action-packed summer, starting on Fight Island in Abu Dhabi; to be headlined by Kamaru Usman and Jorge Masvidal, but first, read on for our underdog betting breakdown and predictions.

Roman Bogatov vs Leonardo Santos

Saturday, July 11, 2020 – 06:35 PM EDT
UFC lightweight bout

UFC Live Odds

Leonardo Santos

  • Age: 40
  • Nationality: Brazil
  • Record: 17-3-1
  • Height: 6ft”
  • Reach: 75”
  • Gym: Nova Uniao
  • Notable Gym Members: Jose Aldo, Jussier Formiga, & Ketlen Viera
  • Current Streak: 5 wins
  • Wins by KO/TKO: 3
  • Wins by Submission: 9
  • Decision wins: 4
  • Significant Strikes (UFC)
  • Landed Per Min: 2.40
  • Accuracy: 41%
  • Defense: 61%
  • Grappling (UFC)
  • Takedown Average: 1.10
  • Takedown Accuracy: 25%
  • Takedown Defended: 86%

Brazilian fourth-degree black-belt in Jiu-Jitsu Leonardo Santos is undoubtedly not a spring chicken but remains undefeated while fighting under the UFC banner.

The forty-year-old member of team Nova Uniao, he’s notably trained with Jose Aldo and Jussier Formiga who both have fights scheduled on Fight Island.

Returning after a long three-year lay-off in his previous fight, Santos impressed with an impressive first-round technical knockout.

Roman Bogatov

  • Age: 29
  • Nationality: Russian
  • Record: 10-0-0
  • Height: 5ft 8”
  • Reach: N/A
  • Gym: Boets MMA
  • Notable Gym Members: N/A
  • Current Streak: 10 wins
  • Wins by KO/TKO: 1
  • Wins by Submission: 5
  • Decision wins: 3
  • Significant Strikes (UFC)
  • Landed Per Min: N/A
  • Accuracy: N/A
  • Defense: N/A
  • Grappling (UFC)
  • Takedown Average: N/A
  • Takedown Accuracy: N/A
  • Takedown Defended: N/A

Roman Bogatov will make his anticipated UFC debut riding an undefeated 10-0 streak; the fearless Russian is a former M1-Challenge lightweight champion and offers a strong offensive grappling game.

If you were to pay attention to any debuting fighter during Fight Island, then Roman Bogatov is your guy.

At the end of the day

Reminiscent of our current lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, Bogatov offers a similar threat as Khabib does; but with an added ultra-dangerous Jiu-Jitsu game – enough to submit a fourth-degree black-belt? I’m not sure, but he certainly has enough to dominate Santos into a unanimous decision.

UFC 251 Underdog Pick:

Roman Bogatov+155
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Karol Rosa vs Vanessa Melo

Saturday, July 11, 2020 – 07:35 PM EDT
UFC female bantamweight bout

UFC Live Odds

Karol Rosa

  • Age: 25
  • Nationality: Brazil
  • Record: 12-3-0
  • Height: 6ft 2”
  • Reach: 75.5”
  • Gym: Parana Vale Tudo
  • Notable Gym Members: Jessica Andrade, Liz Carmouche & Priscila Cachoeira
  • Current Streak: 3 wins
  • Wins by KO/TKO: 4
  • Wins by Submission: 2
  • Decision wins: 6

BJJ black-belt Karol Rosa will make her second appearance in a UFC octagon this weekend and will make it to the punch before Vanessa Melo.

Offering a technical and still evolving striking game, Rosa made a much more impressive UFC debut than her opponent Melo.

Holding a black-belt as a backup, Rosa often takes a striking offence approach to her game plan and is comfortable & confident exchanging strikes.

Vanessa Melo

  • Age: 32
  • Nationality: Brazil
  • Record: 10-7-0
  • Height: 5ft 5”
  • Reach: 65”
  • Gym: Babuino Gold Team
  • Notable Gym Members: N/A
  • Current Streak: 2 losses
  • Wins by KO/TKO: 0
  • Wins by Submission: 2
  • Decision wins: 8

At the end of the day

I think we’re going to witness a stand-up war between the two ladies with Rosa having the higher chance of out-striking Melo.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we witness Melo bring it often and early but then fading up against the younger, faster style of a fighter in Rosa.

Rosa is the current bookmaker’s favorite at -210, but with Melo holding a durability factor we’ll take the decision prop to boost our odds. Remember to find the best UFC odds using SBR Odds, finding value will dramatically affect your long-term betting investment.

UFC 251 Pick:

Rosa by decision+100
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