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UFC 238 Picks: Valentina Submits Eye

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Valentina Shevchenko vs Jessica Eye

Saturday, June 08, 2019 – 11:30 PM EDT

Free UFC Pick: Shevchenko ITD

Recommended Sportsbook: 5Dimes -128

Valentina “The Bullet’ Shevchenko was a world class striker before ever getting into MMA and she took the current and only women’s Champ-Champ Amanda Nunes to not one but two 5 round split decisions and lost the last one in a very close split. She accepted that she was a smaller fighter and dropped to 125 and immediately took the strap. This will be Shevchenko’s first title defense and she is facing the tough and gritty Jessica Eye.

Shevchenko is an impressive 16-3 with 2 of those 3 losses coming to the women’s GOAT Amanda Nunes in VERY close fights. Shevchenko has a 69% finish rate and is a large step above all the contenders at 125. Jessica Eye is 14-6 and has looked impressive in her last several outings but prior to her current 3 fight win streak she was on a 4 fight losing skid to fighters like Juilanna Pena, Sarah McMann, and most embarrassing Bethe Correia. Eye was fighting at 135 as a natural 125 pound fighter due to the UFC not having a division for her. Now that she has dropped a class she is really putting it together, but I just do not believe that she is on Shevchenko’s level.

Given Shevchenko’s high finish rate and the fact that Eye is openly preparing to out-grapple the champion and engage in a ground fight I think there is value on the -1600 favorite Shevchenko taking her to win Inside the distance at -128. I think after a few rounds of grappling the bigger and more athletic fighter Eye will begin to slow and that will open up submissions. Shevchenko has an impressive 44% submission rate and I think she will defend her belt for the first time in impressive fashion.