UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs. De Lima MMA Odds and Betting Picks

In a fight oddsmakers are expecting to be one of the most even on the card, a pair of veteran heavyweights in Ben Rothwell and Marcos Rogerio de Lima will go at it in Saturday's UFC Fight Night co-main event. Let's take a closer look at where the value lies.

With a total of 52 professional MMA fights, Rothwell (39-13-0) comes into Saturday having won three of his last four, most recently in May via submission of Chris Barnett. His opponent Saturday, Rogerio de Lima (18-8-1), has alternated wins and losses every single fight since joining the UFC following The Ultimate Fighter win in 2014. He is also coming in off of a win against Maurice Greene via unanimous decision in May.

Here are my picks and predictions for Saturday's heavyweight UFC matchup between Rothwell and de Lima (Odds via Caesars, pick confidence based on 1-to-5-star rating).

Rothwell vs. De Lima Fight Info

Date/Time: Saturday, November 13, 4 p.m. ET (main card)TV: ESPN+Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV

Rothwell vs. De Lima Betting Odds Analysis

This fight opened with Rothwell a -160 favorite (de Lima +125) and has since seen fairly split action with Rothwell as low as -150 at Caesars.

One notable move thus far has been to the Under 2.5 total rounds, with an opening -125 quickly moving to -137 at other sportsbooks.

Ben Rothwell Betting Profile

A purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Rothwell is one of the rare heavyweights who can not just knock out his opponent (and he can, viciously), but also take them to the ground with great success. Of his past five wins, three have come via submission, with the guillotine choke being his favorite method.

Coming into Saturday, he possesses 69-percent takedown defense and is averaging 0.49 submissions per 15 minutes inside the octagon. His 0.85 takedowns per 15 minutes also highlight a fighting style that isn't afraid to meet his opponent on the ground and keep them there.

One other thing to note in regards to Rothwell, the 40-year-old will be going for his 40th professional win on Saturday and his 10th while with the UFC.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima Betting Profile

For the 36-year-old de Lima, his career has been defined by inconsistency. With no back-to-back wins since The Ultimate Fighter win that got him his first contract in 2014, submissions have been his biggest weakness as all five of his latest defeats have come via submission in the first or second round.

While he does hold the edge over Rothwell in takedown accuracy (66 percent vs. 44 percent), his takedown defense of just 43 percent is a statistic that has come back to burn him many times.

With a win here, de Lima would likely enter the coveted top 15 of the heavyweight rankings and would certainly put his inconsistent label on hold, at least for the time being.

Rothwell vs. De Lima Betting Picks

Rothwell to win (-150) ???Rothwell by submission (+550) ??

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Rothwell vs. De Lima Betting Predictions

Rothwell to win (-150)

Until de Lima shows me any kind of consistency whatsoever, I'm going to be hard-pressed to back him in any fight, let alone one against a veteran of the game like Rothwell.

Additionally, when looking at two recent common opponents in Stefan Struve and Ovince Saint Preux, the contrast is stark. Rothwell earned victories over both (Struve's via TKO), while de Lima lost both and was submitted in the second round in both cases.

Rothwell's name is littered throughout the UFC record books for a reason and I think we see the 40-year-old pick up win No. 40 Saturday.

Rothwell by submission (+550)

Not only have three of his recent five wins come via submission, but Rothwell has been getting better on the ground each and every time out. While de Lima is certainly no slouch when it comes to grappling, he'll also be fighting in his first main event Saturday. One thing you can't have against Rothwell? An ounce of timidness.

I like for Rothwell to finish this one by his patented guillotine choke and, if de Lima isn't careful, earlier rather than later.

Picks made on 11/10/2021 at 5:33 p.m. ET