UFC 271: Phillips vs. Rojo MMA Odds and Picks

A pair of relatively unknown bantamweights will get the biggest opportunity of their careers on Saturday on the main card of UFC 271. We offer up our top UFC picks for Kyler Phillips versus Marcelo Rojo.

Rojo (16-8) and Phillips (9-2-0) will step into the Octagon on Saturday in what should sneakily be one of the best fights on this entire card. They have had just nine fights go to a decision between them, and they are of course here for a reason. Let’s take a closer look at how this one might play out in Houston, TX.

Here are my Phillips-Rojo picks and predictions for Saturday’s bantamweight bout at UFC 271 (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Phillips vs. Rojo Fight Info

Date/Time: Saturday, Feb. 12, 10 p.m. ET (main card)TV: PPV/ESPN+Location: Toyota Center, Houston, TX

Phillips vs. Rojo Odds Analysis

Opening as a -300 favorite, the money has flowed even further in Phillips' direction dropping the line as low as -455 at BetRivers. For those looking to get down on the underdog Rojo, Caesars offers the best number at +330.

This is also expected to be a rather quick fight, with the Under 1.5 total rounds shaded to -143 at BetRivers, and Under 2.5 shaded to -180 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Kyler Phillips Betting Profile

Joining the UFC in February 2020, Phillips racked up three straight wins, two of which earned him Performance of the Night bonuses. However, he then ran into Raulian Paiva on July 24 and ran out of gas on the way to a majority decision loss. 

With some of the rawest talent in this division, Phillips is an elite striker and grappler, and the way he moves around the Octagon will be something fans notice almost right away. While he tends to look for the knockout, Phillips has a background in jiu-jitsu. His 3.20 takedowns per 15 minutes rank among the best in the division through just four fights.

Marcelo Rojo Betting Profile

Rojo made his debut in the UFC last March, taking a fight against Charles Jourdain on less than a month's notice. He lost in the third round via TKO. He was in the fight for the first and into the second round, and Rojo showed he can compete at this level. Rojo enters this bout with his first full camp under the UFC banner. 

A Muay Thai specialist, Rojo is known for attacking the knees via kicks. He will look to slow down the fast-paced Phillips with just that. With two of his last three MMA losses coming via submission, Rojo has yet to display the grappling that he’ll need to make a run up the rankings of the UFC.

Phillips vs. Rojo Picks

Marcelo Rojo to win (+330 via Caesars) ?Fight starts Round 3 (+110 via DraftKings) ????

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Phillips vs. Rojo Predictions

Rojo to win (+330)

While Phillips no doubt has the edge in the talent department, these odds have gotten to the point where I have no choice but to take the underdog. At 33 years of age, Rojo is seven years Phillips' senior. Despite having just joined the UFC, he has seen some of the most elite talent in this weight class across other promotions. That includes a submission win over Michael Erosa in Combate Americas in 2017.

Phillips would be wise to take this one to the ground early and attempt to keep it there. With a takedown accuracy of 100%, Rojo needs to lean on that strength to ensure they stand and strike. In a fight he desperately needs to win in order to maintain a UFC contract in this ultra-competitive division, I like for Rojo to keep this close enough to get the win. I don’t have him tabbed as this big of an underdog as the odds suggest.

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Fight starts Round 3 (+110)

While the narrative around these two fighters is an electric matchup sure to produce sparks, I wouldn’t be so sure we don’t see this reach the final round. Three of Phillips' last four fights went the distance, including each of his last two. 

As for Rojo, two of his last three entered the third round. That includes his March fight against Jourdain that looked like it was headed to the final bell. I expect Phillips to turn this into a ground and pound, and for Rojo to keep his distance and strike the knees. This should drag on into the final round.

Where to Bet on UFC 271

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks for odds boosts:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesarsDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

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Phillips-Rojo picks made 2/9/2022 at 8:16 p.m. ET