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UFC Odds & Best Bets Today: UFC on ESPN 46 Schedule, Picks

Themi Alexis

Last Updated: June 3, 2023 10:14 AM EDT • 3 min 53 sec read.

UFC predictions
UFC predictions

Ranked flyweights Kai Kara-France and Amir Albazi headline Saturday's UFC card from the Apex in Las Vegas. Here are our best bets for Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 46 card based on the odds from our best sports betting apps.

Nearly a year after failing to capture interim gold in a rematch with Brandon Moreno, Kai Kara-France meets a streaking Amir Albazi during this weekend’s marquee matchup.

The 30-year-old Kiwi had won three straight before suffering a TKO at Moreno’s hands last July, and he now heads stateside with a solid UFC record of 7-3.

As for his dance partner, Albazi has been quickly emerging as a dark horse flyweight, scoring four wins in as many walks to the Octagon. The London-based Albazi was last seen stopping Alessandro Costa in a third-round knockout this past December, bringing his win streak to five and his pro record to 16-1.

Alex Caceres will meet veteran Daniel Pineda at featherweight during Saturday's co-main event. Caceres last scored a quick TKO of Julian Erosa in December, while Pineda takes the cage fewer than three months after his second-round submission of Tucker Lutz.

Here are our best bets for Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 46 (odds via DraftKings; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

UFC on ESPN 46 schedule and odds

Main Card (9 p.m. ET)

  • Kai Kara-France (-110) vs. Amir Albazi (-110)
  • Alex Caceres (-180) vs. Daniel Pineda (+155)
  • Jim Miller (-230) vs. Jesse Butler (+195)
  • Tim Elliott (-180) vs. Victor Altamirano (+155)
  • Karine Silva (-215) vs. Ketlen Souza (+185)
  • Abubakar Nurmagomedov (-115) vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (-105)

Prelims (6 p.m. ET)

  • Jamie Mullarkey (-460) vs. Muhammadjon Naimov (+370)
  • John Castaneda (-140) vs. Muin Gafurov (+120)
  • Andrei Arlovski (+115) vs. Don’Tale Mayes (-135)
  • Daniel Santos (-215) vs. Johnny Munoz (+185)
  • Elise Reed (-130) vs. Jinh Yu Frey (+110)
  • Da’Mon Blackshear (+130) vs. Luan Lacerda (-150)
  • Philipe Lins (+115) vs. Maxim Grishin (-135)

UFC on ESPN 46 UFC best bets

  • Fight line: Kara-France ML vs. Albazi (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Upset: Pineda ML vs. Caceres (+155 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Winning method: Pineda by submission or KO/TKO vs. Caceres (+250 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Prop bet: Castaneda vs. Gafurov Under 2.5 rounds (+115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Parlay: Kara-France (-110) + Castaneda vs. Gafurov doesn’t go the distance (-105) + Lins vs. Grishin doesn’t go the distance (+100) = +645 (via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

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UFC top picks for UFC on ESPN 46

Fight Line: Kara-France ML vs. Albazi (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Given Kara-France’s edge in strength of schedule, his 4.7 significant strikes landed per minute, and 87% takedown defense while competing in a division teeming with tireless grapplers, I like the Kiwi’s chances of besting a solid takedown and submission artist in Albazi. 

The 30-year-old is a competent scrambler and packs a wallop worth respecting, and he’ll need to claim the center of the cage to keep Albazi on his back foot from the opening bell. The latter has scored takedowns in every one of his UFC victories and averages 2.47 per 15 minutes.

Provided he can shuck off a few takedown attempts and put Albazi’s back to the cage, Kara-France should land the cleaner, more damaging zingers, and maybe even put his opponent away to get back in the win column.

Upset: Pineda ML vs. Caceres (+155 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Pineda is no world-beater, but he’s faced everything there is to see in the cage over 40 career bouts. I doubt Caceres’ spinning attacks, double-fists, and the like will faze him.

Granted, Caceres boasts a 73-inch reach to Pineda’s 69. But he’s never quite made the most of his measurables, while Pineda is a willing banger with the edge in raw power. Pineda would be wise to mix in some takedowns here, as he’s a solid top player tasked with a foe who’s often struggled on the mat in Caceres.

Look for the more seasoned Pineda to make it two in a row with a combination of haymakers, well-timed takedowns, and blanketing top control.

Winning Method: Pineda by submission or KO/TKO vs. Caceres (+250 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

The journeyman Pineda has earned all 28 of his career wins within the distance, with 19 coming through a tapout. He now gets a dance partner who’s suffered seven of 13 defeats through submission.

The Texas native is adept at snatching both limbs and necks, and his top game and ground-and-pound are good enough to keep the long, unpredictable Caceres on his back. Whether he capitalizes on a scramble to secure one of his nasty chokes or opens up with leather and elbows from the top, Pineda may well enjoy a grand ol’ time at Caceres’ expense on the mat and add yet another stoppage to his prolific resume.

Prop Bet: Castaneda vs. Gafurov Under 2.5 rounds (+115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Neither of these bantamweights is in the habit of going the distance, as Castaneda has earned 14 of his 19 career wins by stoppage, while Gafurov hasn’t needed the judges’ participation in all but one of his 18 victories.

Furthermore, both men can finish with their mitts and on the mat. When the cage door shuts, I expect Gafurov to be the one pressing the action after claiming 14 victories in the opening stanza. Whether Castaneda hits paydirt with a combo or club-and-sub, or Gafurov plays spoiler with an early blitz, 2.5 rounds should be enough time to settle this bantamweight clash.

Parlay:  Kara-France (-110) + Castaneda vs. Gafurov doesn’t go the distance (-105) + Lins vs. Grishin doesn’t go the distance (+100) = +645 (via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

UFC best bets made 2/6/2023 at 12:04 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Themi Alexis
Themistoklis Alexis is a writer and editor based in Montreal, Quebec. He earned his degree in Journalism from Centennial College in Toronto before working for theScore as an MMA news editor from 2016 to 2018, contributing news stories, fight recaps, and features. His introduction to the sport came in 2007 with Randy Couture's thrashing of Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 74, and he's since spent countless hours watching people in far better shape than him sling zingers in four-ounce gloves. When he isn't getting his regularly scheduled dose of on-screen ultraviolence or losing sleep over his weekly MMA picks, he enjoys reading, watching old films, sketching, and podcasting about filmmakers from bygone eras of cinema.