The UFC returns to Rio de Janeiro on Saturday for an event featuring a pair of compelling championship bouts. Read on for our best bets for Saturday’s UFC 283 based on the odds from our best sportsbooks.
Just over a month after losing his rematch with Jiri Prochazka and seeing Jan Blachowicz fight Magomed Ankalaev to a controversial draw instead, Glover Teixeira gets his chance to reclaim the vacant UFC light heavyweight crown in his home country of Brazil, this time opposite a streaking Jamahal Hill.
Teixeira’s loss to Prochazka came at UFC 275 this past June, the tapout costing him the strap and halting a six-fight win streak. As for Hill, the 31-year-old gets his first shot at UFC gold after compiling three straight wins by KO/TKO, the last coming against Thiago Santos last August.
In the co-main event, Deiveson Figueiredo aims to unify the UFC flyweight title on home soil against interim titleholder Brandon Moreno. The matchup marks the fourth in the pair’s rivalry, with Figueiredo earning a decision victory the last time around to regain his crown and bring the series to 1-1-1 last January. Moreno, on the other hand, earned another crack at his Brazilian foe with a third-round TKO of Kai Kara-France this past July.
In another main-card clash of note, welterweight contender Gilbert Burns squares off with divisional fixture Neil Magny.
Check out our UFC best bets.
UFC 283 Schedule & Odds
(odds via Caesars)
Main Card (10 p.m. ET):
- Glover Teixeira (+115) vs. Jamahal Hill (-135)
- Deiveson Figueiredo (+105) vs. Brandon Moreno (-125)
- Gilbert Burns (-500) vs. Neil Magny (+380)
- Jessica Andrade (-500) vs. Lauren Murphy (+380)
- Paul Craig (+170) vs. Johnny Walker (-200)
Prelims (8 p.m. ET):
- Mauricio Rua (+175) vs. Ihor Potieria (-210)
- Gregory Rodrigues (-310) vs. Brunno Ferreira (+250)
- Thiago Moises (-380) vs. Melquizael Costa (+300)
- Mounir Lazzez (+140) vs. Gabriel Bonfim (-165)
Early Prelims (5:30 p.m. ET):
- Shamil Abdurakhimov (+700) vs. Jailton Almeida (-1100)
- Terrance McKinney (-115) vs. Ismael Bonfim (-105)
- Warlley Alves (-135) vs. Nicolas Dalby (+115)
- Josiane Nunes (-550) vs. Zarah Fairn dos Santos (+400)
- Luan Lacerda (+290) vs. Cody Stamann (-370)
- Saimon Oliveira (-135) vs. Daniel Marcos (+115)
UFC 283 Best Bets
- Fight line: Walker ML vs. Craig (-190 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐
- Upset: Teixeira ML vs. Hill (+115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Winning method: Dalby by decision vs. Alves (+290 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Prop bet: Rodrigues to win vs. Ferreira in Round 1 (+115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Parlay: Teixeira (+115) + Walker (-200) + Dalby (+115) = +593 (via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
Top Picks for UFC 283
Fight Line: Walker ML vs. Craig (-190 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐
Three of Paul Craig’s five UFC losses have come against strikers in Volkan Oezdemir, Alonzo Menifield, and Khalil Rountree, and if the Scotsman doesn’t get the ground fight he wants, I suspect Johnny Walker will make the next entry in the pattern.
The 30-year-old Walker lands just under 60% of his significant strikes and 3.26 of them per minute, while Craig absorbs more than he lands and defends less than half the significant strikes that come his way. Granted, Craig boasts some clever tricks on the mat, hence this three-star rating, but as long as Walker keeps his head and picks his shots, he handily outstrikes Craig for a second straight W.
Upset: Teixeira ML vs. Hill (+115 via Caesars Sportsbook) ⭐⭐⭐
Teixeira has seen a fifth round four times over his UFC stint, a feat Hill has yet to complete, with the Brazilian also boasting advantages in significant strike defense (53% to 45%) and takedown average per 15 minutes (2.20 to a big ol’ donut). Yes, Hill is the younger, more natural athlete and strikes at a high clip, but Teixeira has routinely big brothered opponents fitting that very same bill over his recent resurgence.
Despite Hill’s fight-ending power, I believe Teixeira will survive in some dicey spots before dragging Hill into the later rounds and having a grand old time at the youngster’s expense on the mat in a vintage, championship-winning showing.
Winning Method: Dalby by decision vs. Alves (+290 via Caesars Sportsbook) ⭐⭐⭐
Nicolas Dalby has gone the distance in all but one of his nine UFC showings, and he presents Warlley Alves with a challenge that isn’t easily quantified - my reason for this three-star rating. Not only is Dalby nimble on the feet and adept at darting in and out of range, he also boasts an endless motor, while Alves is a decent striking technician, but absorbs more significant strikes per minute than he lands (3.63 to 3.07) and has faded late more than once.
All this to say, I see Dalby staying busy and frustrating a plodding Alves on the feet before flipping a switch come Round 3 and grinding Alves out for a hard-fought win on points.
Prop Bet: Rodrigues to win vs. Ferreira in Round 1 (+115 via Caesars Sportsbook) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Gregory Rodrigues has earned six of his 11 career finishes in the first round, while his short-notice foe has done the same in seven of his nine pro fights. In other words, Rodrigues is probably in for a fire fight, and he’s fared just fine in such contests, having won three of his last four, all by KO/TKO.
With Brunno Ferreira vying for a swift and violent upset, look for Rodrigues to eat a bit of leather and sling plenty of his own before putting a game, yet green, Ferreira out with either a nasty salvo or his dormant, yet very real submission skills.
Parlay: Teixeira (+115) + Walker (-200) + Dalby (+115) = +593 (via Caesars Sportsbook) ⭐⭐⭐
UFC best bets made 21/1/2023 at 12:04 a.m. ET.
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