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Calvin Kattar looks on prior to facing Josh Emmett in their featherweight fight at the UFC Fight Night event.
Calvin Kattar looks on prior to facing Josh Emmett in their featherweight fight at the UFC Fight Night event. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images via AFP.

A pair of top-10 featherweights are set to clash in the main event of UFC Vegas 63 on Saturday night when Calvin Kattar slings leather with Arnold Allen.

Kattar is a classic gatekeeper in the best sense of the word. He may never strap UFC gold around his waist, but he’s an excellent, impossibly tough fighter who can hang with, and sometimes best, some of the top competitors in the division. In his last outing in June, “The Boston Finisher” dropped a razor-close split decision to fellow top-five 145-pounder Josh Emmett.

Despite actually being in the UFC for longer than Kattar, Allen’s rise up the featherweight rankings has been a slow burn. The 28-year-old Englishman is 11-0 inside the Octagon, posting the biggest victory of his career at UFC 204 when he bludgeoned Dan Hooker with vicious standing elbows.

If Allen completely blitzes Kattar like he did Hooker, he’ll likely put himself on the shortlist of potential challengers. If Kattar emerges with his hand raised, he’ll hold onto his top-five spot.

Here are my Kattar-Allen picks and predictions for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night main event (odds via Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).  

Check out our picks and predictions for the boxing bout between Jake Paul and UFC legend Anderson Silva.

Kattar vs. Allen Odds

(via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Moneyline: Kattar (-105) vs. Allen (-110)
Over/Under: Over 4.5 rounds (-145) | Under 4.5 rounds (+115)

Kattar vs. Allen Fight Info

Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 29, 7 PM ET (Main Card)
TV: ESPN +, TSN (Canada)
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV

Kattar vs. Allen Picks

B T1027

Who will win Kattar vs. Allen?

Kattar (+100) ★★★★

This matchup is extremely close on paper. Kattar lands at a much higher volume but also absorbs almost three times as many strikes as Allen.

Allen is a slightly more accurate striker and may also be the better offensive wrestler, but Kattar’s takedown defense is 91%, so it’s unlikely “Almighty” will drag this to the floor.

With all things being mostly equal, I have to lean toward Kattar’s experience and superhuman toughness. I expect Kattar to use sheer volume to outwork Allen over 25 minutes en route to a gritty decision victory.

Kattar vs. Allen Over/Under

Over 4.5 rounds (-135) ★★★★

As I explained earlier, I anticipate this bout to go the distance. After absorbing a record number of significant strikes against Max Holloway, I’m convinced the shoe-leather tough Kattar is almost impossible to finish. He lost by submission nearly 15 years ago and hasn’t been finished since despite being locked in a cage with Holloway, Giga Chikadze, Jeremy Stephens, and Ricardo Lamas, among others.

Allen’s lone loss was a decision, and four of his past five bouts have reached the judge’s scorecards. This will be a close bout, and as such, it’ll go the full 25 minutes.

Kattar vs. Allen Winning Method

Kattar by decision (+240) ★★★★

“The Boston FInisher” will not live up to his nickname. If I expect Kattar to win, and this bout to go the distance, this pick is a no-brainer.

After a string of KO/TKO victories, Kattar’s last two wins have come via decision, and he’s reached the final bell in four straight trips to the Octagon. He’ll sneak by Allen for five rounds in a very workmanlike effort that may occasionally break into an absolute firefight.

Where to Bet on Kattar-Allen Picks

  Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:  

Kattar-Allen picks made 10/27/2022 at 12:02 p.m. ET