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Ciryl Gane looks on against Francis Ngannou prior to their heavyweight title fight during UFC 270.
Ciryl Gane looks on against Francis Ngannou prior to their heavyweight title fight during UFC 270. Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images via AFP.

In a heavyweight bout with title implications and the potential for ultraviolence, Ciryl Gane squares off against heavy-hitter Tai Tuivasa in the main event of UFC Paris on Saturday night. Read on for our Gane-Tuivasa picks and predictions.

A legitimate title contender with only 11 pro fights under his belt, Gane fell just short in his championship quest in January, dropping a decision to division kingpin Francis Ngannou.

Following a three-fight losing streak that placed his spot on the UFC roster in jeopardy, Tuivasa has violently rattled off five straight KO/TKO victories, with three of those coming in the opening round.

With title relevancy on the line, here are my top picks for the UFC Fight Night main event between Ciryl Gane and Tai Tuivasa (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Gane vs. Tuivasa Fight Info

Date/Time: Saturday, Sept. 3, 3 p.m. ET (main card)
TV: ESPN +, UFC Fight Pass
Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France

Gane vs. Tuivasa Picks

Betting Ticket0901

Who will win Gane vs. Tuivasa?

Gane (-540) ★★★★

Quite simply, Gane has more tools in the old tool belt. A superior, more polished striker, Gane is the better all-around fighter and should emerge from this bout with his hand raised.

The towering Frenchman’s lone career loss came in his last bout against heavyweight overlord Ngannou, and it’s not as if “Bon Gamin” completely folded under the pressure of the Cameroonian’s terrifying power. Instead, Gane took the best heavyweight on the planet to the limit, losing a razor-close decision.

Meanwhile, blessed with nuclear warheads for fists, Tuivasa has scored five straight knockouts, violently face-planting perennial contender Derrick Lewis in his last trip to the Octagon in February.

However, Gane is the more accurate striker, lands at a higher rate, and also absorbs less punishment. If he can use his considerable reach advantage to stay on the outside and blast Tuivasa with kicks and straight punches, he should be able to avoid a Hail-Mary haymaker.

Tuivasa won’t be drinking out of a shoe on Saturday night.

Gane vs. Tuivasa Over/Under

Over 2.5 Rounds (-126) ★★★★

Despite Tuivasa’s reputation for obliterating opponents early, I can’t see this bout reaching “blink and you miss it” status.

Gane is a patient, methodical fighter and is unlikely to engage in a firefight with the dynamite-fisted Australian. Six of Gane’s eight UFC bouts have reached the third round, with four of those going the distance.

I expect Gane to pick Tuivasa apart from the outside while successfully avoiding any of "Bam Bam’s" bombs.

Gane vs. Tuivasa Winning Method

Via KO/TKO (-185) ★★★★

Regardless of who wins, someone will  be counting the lights.

A vicious puncher, Tuivasa has finished 13 of 14 wins via TKO/KO, racking up devastating finishes of Stefan Struve, Greg Hardy, and the aforementioned Lewis.

Gane’s knockout rate isn’t nearly as terrifying, but he’s finished four of his 10 career victories via strikes, and has faced a higher-caliber of competition.

If Tuivasa can’t spark Gane early, the latter will pile up the punishment over time until he polishes off his opponent with strikes at some point in the later stanzas. There’s also some definite value in betting Gane to get the finish at +120 via DraftKings.

Where to Bet on Gane vs. Tuivasa

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Gane-Tuivasa UFC Fight Night picks made 9/1/2022 at 11:58 a.m. ET