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UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Brady MMA Odds and Betting Picks

UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Brady MMA Odds and Betting Picks
Michael Chiesa is introduced by Bruce Buffer before his bantamweight fight against Vincente Luque. Photo by Alex Bierens de Haan/Getty Images via AFP.

The co-main event of the card pits Michael Chiesa against the undefeated Sean Brady. We have all the betting angles covered with our picks for the Chiesa and Brady fight.

Michael Chiesa has accumulated an impressive 18-5 record throughout his career, despite losing his previous bout. The veteran is well-rounded and plays to his strengths as best as any wrestler. He’s looking to ascend in the welterweight division and compete once again for a title shot.

Sean Brady is sitting at 14-0 with an impressive resume of wins against lower competition. He’ll be on the cusp of earning his own title shot with a win against Chiesa. He enters as a favorite despite the name recognition belonging to Chiesa.

Here are my picks and predictions for Saturday’s men’s welterweight UFC matchup between Michael Chiesa and Sean Brady (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.)

Chiesa vs. Brady Fight Info

Date/Time: Saturday, November 20, 7:45 p.m. ET
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV

Chiesa vs. Brady Odds Analysis

The line has moved slightly more towards Brady since opening at -150. Some books have him at -165, so make sure you shop around. Chiesa has seen a little more value go his way since opening at +120, rising to +138.

Michael Chiesa Betting Profile

Few of the advanced stats on Chiesa are impressive despite his solid career. It's undeniable the man knows how to win with timely strikes and a feel for the match. His last three wins have come by unanimous decision, and his three previous wins were via submissions.

Chiesa tends to lose big, though, as his strike rate is embarrassingly low for his weight class (1.87/minute). He's been choked out in his last three losses and has actually never lost via decision. He is a fascinating study of losing big or winning mediocre.

Sean Brady Betting Profile

Everything Brady does, he does big. He's a massive threat to win by submission and is also an adept striker as well. He won his first two UFC fights by unanimous decision and then the following two with a guillotine choke and arm triangle.

Of course, there's the question of whether it will work against an experienced fighter. Brady's biggest fight of his career will define what happens next for him.

Chiesa vs. Brady Betting Picks

To win: Brady (-150) ★★★★
Method of victory: Brady by submission (+275) ★★★

SEE ALSO: All UFC Picks and Predictions

Chiesa vs. Brady Betting Predictions

Brady to win (-150)

The veterans of the UFC can always surprise you, but the up-and-comers have the advantage of hunger and more varied fighting abilities. Chiesa is an expert at pulling out wins and has some element of danger to him, but Brady will go for it once the nerves shake off. The numbers support a big win for Brady, and he's really impressed in his first four bouts.

Brady by submission (+275)

Chiesa loses big way too often for me to bet he'll last all three rounds. This would be a bizarre time for Chiesa to suddenly go the distance in a loss. Brady has confidence and sharp skill as he works towards submissions.

SEE ALSO: Vieira vs. Tate Picks

Picks made on 11/17/2021 at 10:11 p.m. ET