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UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Lauzon MMA Odds and Picks

UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Lauzon MMA Odds and Picks
Donald Cerrone of the United States looks on in the Welterweight fight against Anthony Pettis. Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images via AFP.

In what could turn out to be a classic loser leaves town match, veteran lightweights Donald Cerrone and Joe Lauzon are set to exchange violent pleasantries in the co-main event of UFC Austin on Saturday night. We break down the bout with our top Cerrone-Lauzon picks.

Originally set to sling leather at UFC 274 in May, Cerrone and Lauzon were jettisoned from the card when “Cowboy” suffered through a nasty bout of food poisoning. With both men likely on the brink of retirement, this may turn into a potential loser leaves town match, where the loser shuffles off into retirement, while the winner sticks around for one last kick at the can.

With a ton of mileage on both men’s bodies, this could transform into a retirement match for both the winner and loser.

Here are my picks and predictions for UFC Fight Night’s lightweight showdown between Cerrone and Lauzon (odds via Fanduel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Cerrone vs. Lauzon Fight Info

Date/Time: Saturday, June 18, 7 p.m. ET (main card)
Location: Moody Center, Austin, TX

Cerrone vs. Lauzon Odds Analysis

Cerrone opened as a -170 favorite and that line has moved slightly to -165 at DraftKings. He definitely has the higher profile of the two, so it’s not surprising that he’s received the lion’s share of the support at FanDuel and moved to -180.

If you’re looking to cash in on a live underdog, Lauzon can be snatched up at odds of +140 (more on that later).

Donald Cerrone Betting Profile

An all-violence first-ballot Hall-of-Famer, Cerrone is seemingly allergic to playing it safe and possesses venomous finishing ability both standing and on the floor. He methodically eviscerates his opponents with a steady diet of kicks and can snatch a submission if the bout hits the mat.

His resume reads like a who’s who of top-tier lightweights and welterweights. He has racked up victories over Jim Miller, Jeremy Stephens, Matt Brown, former 155-pound kingpins Eddie Alvarez, Benson Henderson, and most recent champion Charles Oliveira.

Cowboy is the better striker, and has the historically better gas tank. If his suddenly creaky chin holds up (admittedly, that’s a pretty big if), and he can weather an early storm, he should be able to violently chip away at Lauzon for a round or two until landing a fight-ending salvo late at some point in the third stanza.

Joe Lauzon Betting Profile

A battle-hardened veteran in his own right, Lauzon doesn’t shy away from a little bit of the old ultraviolence. He’s an uber-aggressive fighter, who blitzes his opponents early, and has the killer instinct to polish off his victims when he smells blood in the water.

Lauzon’s impressive list of conquests may not be as gaudy as Cerrone’s, but includes notable wins over Diego Sanchez, Michael Chiesa, Jeremy Stephens, former UFC lightweight champion Jens Pulver, and former PRIDE overlord Takanori Gomi.

Lauzon’s aforementioned tendency to unleash on his foes early may be the key to derailing Cerrone. Cowboy is extremely hittable and a notoriously slow starter.

Cerrone vs. Lauzon Picks

  • Lauzon to win (+140 via DraftKings) ★★★
  • Winning method: Lauzon to win by KO/TKO or submission (+290 via FanDuel) ★★★

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Cerrone vs. Lauzon Predictions

Lauzon to win (+140)

If these two men were still in their primes, I’d pick Cowboy all the way, but his once-iron beard has slowly eroded away after years of firefights. He used to have a strong enough chin to withstand his slow starts, but that’s just not the case anymore, and I think Lauzon will viciously capitalize on that Saturday night.

Cerrone has lost the significant strikes battle in six straight bouts, and he has lost four of his last six fights via TKO/KO. Three of those stoppage losses have come in the opening stanza, and I think that’s where Lauzon will pounce.

Lauzon to win by KO/TKO or submission (+290)

I think a long, drawn-out battle favors Cerrone’s kick-heavy attack and reservoir-deep gas tank, so I’m anticipating Lauzon to unleash early. An incredible 26 of Lauzon’s 28 career victories have been stoppages, with 18 of those finishes coming in the first round.

This ability to overwhelm opponents early dovetails nicely with Cerrone’s tendency to absorb punishment early. I expect Lauzon to spark Cerrone with something nasty in the first few minutes, and Cowboy to ride off into the sunset.

Where to Bet on Cerrone-Lauzon Picks

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Cerrone-Lauzon picks made on 6/16/2022 at 10:07 a.m. ET.