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Top Serie A Matchday 37 Picks: Plenty To Play for in Penultimate Matchday

Top Serie A Matchday 37 Picks: Plenty To Play for in Penultimate Matchday
Marco Silvestri of Udinese Calcio gestures during the Serie A match between US Sassuolo and Udinese Calcio at Mapei Stadium-Citta del Tricolore on May 7, 2022 in Reggio Emilia, Italy. Photo by Luca Amedeo Bizzarri/LiveMedia/NurPhoto via AFP.

The penultimate Matchday of the Serie A season is upon us, and the title is still up for grabs. Read on for our Serie A Matchday 37 picks.

Wins by Inter Milan and A.C. Milan on Matchday 36 have kept the race for the Scudetto alive with two games to play for each. Milan have the much tougher test on paper this week when they play host to Atalanta.

At the bottom of the table, the race to avoid relegation to Serie B is going right down to the wire, with none of the bottom six teams either safe or officially relegated. Salernitana’s win over Venezia last Thursday and their draw against Cagliari on Sunday have them currently in a safety position in 17th, while Genoa’s dramatic win over Juventus last Friday gave them three crucial points in their bid to stay up.

Here are my top Serie A Matchday 37 betting picks and predictions (odds via DraftKings SportsbookBetMGM, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Top Serie A Matchday 37 Picks

  • AC Milan to win and both teams to score (+190 via DraftKings) ★★★★★
  • Salernitana to win (+105 via DraftKings) ★★★★
  • Udinese-Spezia Over 3.5 goals (+176 via FanDuel) ★★★★

Serie A Matchday 37 Predictions

Milan to win and both teams to score (+190)

Milan have another chance to damper the hopes of Inter when they play host to Atalanta on Sunday. A win here can put pressure on the Nerazzurri as they play immediately after away to Cagliari.

Milan’s comeback derby win against Inter on Feb. 5 was the catalyst for their run to the top of the table because they have been the best team in the league since that point. Undefeated during that time span and collecting the most points, they also have conceded the fewest goals and have the best expected goals against. In fact, their 8.39 xGA is more than seven better than second-place Juventus.

While Atalanta rank 12th in points over that time frame, they still can score goals. They are tied for fifth in goals for over that time frame and their xG is third, outperforming their actual goal output by four goals. But their six losses since Feb. 6 are the sixth most in the league during that time.

Atalanta are heading for a rebuild in the summer transfer window after a disappointing season where they will most likely finish outside of a European spot. A hungry Milan side will win this game, but La Dea have more than enough to score in this one.

Salernitana (+105)

As much as -1000 to be relegated earlier in the season and almost expelled from Serie A due to bylaws regarding their ownership, the run that Salernitana are on to even give them a shot to stay up has been nothing short of remarkable. We have another great chance to back them on Matchday 37 when they travel to Tuscany to face Empoli.

Empoli’s season has been a tale of two halves, and that second half has been horrendous. They have won just once in 17 games in 2022, and their 10 collected points are second-worst in Serie A over that timespan. Compare that to their form in 2021, where they had the ninth most points in Serie A and won eight games. Only Venezia have fewer points over the same stretch, and Empoli are dead last in xG at home in 2022. It’s their first half that is keeping them in Serie A, not their second half.

Salernitana have collected 22 points in 2022, putting them 12th over that time span. And while they don’t have the advanced stats that jump off the page, they’re undefeated in their last six and have the fifth-best xGA during that time. They clearly can hang against teams that are in and around their skill level.

I’m fully bought into this magical run by I Granata, and they will pick up a crucial three points against Empoli this Saturday.

Over 3.5 goals (+176)

We love a good Serie A Over, and we’ve found a line that is the best way to back goals on Matchday 37.

Since April 1, you may be surprised to see that the best goal-scoring side in Italy has been none other than Udinese. Top of goals for and second in xG since then, they’re also top in goals for and second in xG at home since the beginning of February in an expanded time frame. However, their xGA is 16th since April 1.

Spezia are now in the thick of the relegation race after losing four straight, so there will be motivation to push forward and improve on their 17th-ranked offense by xG since April 1. They are also 17th in xGA, just a single spot above I Friulani.

Four of Udinese’s past eight games have gone Over this number, and four of Spezia’s past seven games have gone Over 3.5 goals. At an implied probability of 36.2 percent over at FanDuel, this price seems a bit off for two teams that have been involved in high-scoring games as of late.

Serie A Matchday 37 Quick Picks

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Serie A Matchday 37 picks made on 5/11/2022 at 2:14 p.m. ET