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Top Serie A Matchday 36 Picks: Battles at Top and Bottom of Table

Top Serie A Matchday 36 Picks: Battles at Top and Bottom of Table
Simone Verdi (US Salernitana 1919) in action during the italian soccer Serie A match Atalanta BC vs US Salernitana on May 02, 2022 at the Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo, Italy. Photo by Francesco Scaccianoce/LiveMedia/NurPhoto via AFP.

There are only three matchdays left in the Serie A season, and both the title race and relegation battle are in their final heated moments. Read on for our Serie A Matchday 36 picks.

While the top four in Serie A are officially confirmed after Matchday 35, the top spot is far from decided.

Both Inter Milan and AC Milan won on Matchday 35, keeping Milan two points clear in first place. With three games left for each, Inter will be hoping their rivals slip up so they can take advantage. Inter do have the easier matchup this weekend playing host to Empoli, but this title race has proven that there is no such thing as an easy game. Milan are a -150 favorite to win the Serie A title currently on DraftKings Sportsbook.

In the race to avoid relegation, Salernitana and Venezia square off in a crucial game that could decide who ultimately goes down between those two teams. Genoa will have a tough test when Juventus come to the Luigi Ferraris. Cagliari will be playing a tired Salernitana team on Sunday, yet another head-to-head match that will be crucial to each team’s survival.

Here are my top Serie A Matchday 36 betting picks and predictions (odds via DraftKings, BetMGM, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Top Serie A Matchday 36 Picks

  • Salernitana-Venezia both teams to score and Over 7.5 corners (+125 via DraftKings) ★★★★
  • Asian line: Genoa +0.5 (+105 via DraftKings) ★★★★
  • Lazio to win and both teams to score (+181 via FanDuel) ★★★★★

Serie A Matchday 36 Predictions

Salernitana-Venezia both teams to score and Over 7.5 corners (+125)

With this being both teams’ game in hand in the relegation race, settling for a draw will do neither any good here. Thus, I believe Salernitana and Venezia will show a bit more offensive prowess than we’ve come to expect from them.

While it’s true that both teams are in the bottom two of xG over the course of the season, that is obviously skewed by the results against the top sides. Against teams in and around them in the standings, the results paint a different picture. Both teams have scored in five of six of Salernitana’s matches involving bottom five teams, and in four of six of Venezia’s matches with the bottom five. These two teams combined for three goals in a 2-1 game back in October.

To get this to over even money, we’ll add over 7.5 corners. Salernitana and Venezia games average 10.6 and 9.4 corners per game, respectively.

Genoa +0.5 (+105)

We’ll go to another relegation-threatened team in Genoa when they play host to Juventus. Italy’s oldest club is sitting 19th with 25 points. They have three more games to avoid being sent down to Serie B.

This is normally a tough game for Genoa to get a result in, but the fact that the Old Lady clinched a top-four sport should help the Grifone in this one. Manager Massimiliano Allegri has stated numerous times that his team’s objective for the season was to qualify for the Champions League. With that completed, there is a chance he could play a rotated lineup to see what he has for squad depth in preparation for next season. There’s also the fact that Juve’s xG and xGA are worse on the road than they are at home.

Genoa can take solace in the fact that they have drawn against solid teams like Inter and Atalanta on the season. With Genoa having everything to play for and Juve’s spot secured, there is a potential for an upset more than this line suggests.

Lazio to win and both teams to score (+181)

While the Champions League spots are wrapped up, the battle for the other European positions is still ongoing. Sitting tied on points with eternal rivals Roma at 59, Lazio needs points against a stagnating Sampdoria side before Roma plays Fiorentina if they have any shot of taking the league’s Europa League spot.

No team in Serie A has averaged more total goals per game than Lazio, with 3.51 per game on the season and only Inter have scored more goals than the Biancocelesti. While Sampdoria rank 14th in goals for and 17th in xG on the season, they can rest assured that Lazio have conceded 53 goals, just four goals less than themselves. Lazio have failed to keep a clean sheet in 23% of their matches this season, and both teams to score has hit in 63% of Lazio’s matches. Sampdoria have an even worse clean sheet percentage at 20% and 53% of their matches have seen both teams score.

Lazio beat Sampdoria 3-1 back on Dec. 5, but Sampdoria had 18 shots in that game. Lazio should get another win against a Sampdoria side fairly assured of safety but haven’t proven themselves all season that they can keep a clean sheet while doing so.

Serie A Matchday 36 Quick Picks

Where to Bet on Serie A

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Serie A Matchday 36 picks made 5/4/2022 at 11:47 a.m. ET