There’s plenty of value to be found up and down the table heading into Matchday 35. Let’s dive in with our Serie A Matchday 35 picks.
There’s perhaps been a final dramatic turn amid the race for the 2021-22 Serie A title.
Inter Milan’s shock 2-1 defeat of Bologna on April 27 means AC Milan are now the favorites to win the Serie A title, and they control their fate. Milan is two points up with an equal amount of games played and the tiebreaker in hand. As long as they match the results of Inter over the final four matchdays, the club will win its first Scudetto since 2011.
Elsewhere in the standings, Juventus’ 2-1 win over Sassuolo and Napoli’s 3-2 loss to Empoli means Juve are just one point behind Napoli for third place. Both are assured of a Champions League berth next season after Roma, Lazio, and Fiorentina all lost.
At the bottom of the table, Salernitana’s shock 2-1 win over Fiorentina coupled with Genoa’s 1-0 win over Cagliari now leaves us with an exciting relegation battle. That was unthinkable a mere three weeks ago.
Top Serie A Matchday 35 Picks
- Asian handicap: Sassuolo +1 (+125 via DraftKings) ★★★★★
- AC Milan to win and both teams to score (+234 via FanDuel) ★★★★★
- Sampdoria-Genoa draw (+215 via FanDuel) ★★★
Serie A Matchday 35 Predictions
Sassuolo +1 (+125)
This line is just disrespectful to Sassuolo’s record against the traditional big teams in Italy during the 2021-22 season, and it overrates Napoli based on recent form.
Sassuolo has logged wins over Inter, Milan, and Juventus away, a home victory against Lazio, and draws against Roma and Napoli. They’ve dropped points against the likes of Genoa, Salernitani, and Cagliari, and that will likely keep them from finishing in a European position. The club was also very unlucky not to come away with something on April 25 against Juve, as it won the xG, chances, possession, shots, shots on target, and xPTS battles. Sassuolo also boasts the fourth-best xG, and they’re tied for the second-most away goals. They’re not afraid of the big boys in Italy.
Meanwhile, Napoli’s spirits are clearly broken. After losing 3-2 to Fiorentina and drawing 1-1 against Roma to see their title hopes disappear, they blew a 2-0 lead to Empoli in the final 10 minutes and lost 3-2. It was Empoli’s first win since Dec. 12, also against Napoli. I Partenopei picked up just one point over a horrid three-game stretch and are a mid-table team according to the advanced statistics.
This bet cashes if Sassuolo wins or ties, plus you get your stake back if they suffer a one-goal loss. This is a great value play given their record against the top sides away.
Milan to win and both teams to score (+234)
A lot has gone right for Milan to be in their current position as the betting favorites to win the title. They might get another break on May 1 when Fiorentina come to the San Siro.
Milan will enjoy the distinct rest advantage against the Viola, as they played a make-up game on April 27. It was a 4-0 drubbing at home to Udinese when Fiorentina were thoroughly outplayed, with the opposition winning the xG and chances duels. While Fiorentina did rotate their starting 11 a bit, they still started key players Lucas Torreira, Giacomo Bonaventura, Alfred Duncan, and Nikola Milenkovic. The club was also forced to sub on Jose Callejon and Jonathan Ikone while trailing.
Meanwhile, Milan have been a great home team all season while ranking third in xPTS and second in xGA at the San Siro, the best in the latter category since the beginning of 2022. In contrast, Fiorentina don’t rank higher than ninth in xGA, xG, or xPTS on the road in 2021-22.
Fiorentina have shown they possess the firepower to score away from home, as the club has tallied at least a goal in 10 of its last 11 league games. But the squad won’t be able to score enough to beat a well-rested Milan side that’s eyeing silverware.
One of my annual traditions is betting on the conservative, self-preserving nature of teams involved in the Serie A relegation battle come crunch time. And there’s good value in the Derby della Lanterna between Sampdoria and Genoa.
No team has logged more draws on the season and in 2022 than Genoa. They’re three points away from safety while sitting on 25 points, and every point counts now while Genoa tries to stay in Serie A.
Sampdoria is also three points above safety after winning just once over their past eight games. The two clubs are evenly matched while ranking 17th and 18th in xG this season and 13th and 14th in xGA.
Always lean toward a draw during fierce local derbies such as these. Considering Venezia is away to Juventus and Salernitana is away to Atalanta, a point for both Sampdoria and Genoa could be huge in the race to avoid relegation.
Both teams would likely settle for a draw if the match is tied in the second half.
Serie A Matchday 35 Quick Picks
Where to Bet on Serie A
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Serie A Matchday 35 picks made 4/28/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET