Top Serie A Matchday 34 Picks: No Shortage of Drama in Italy

Nick Bondi

Last Updated: April 21, 2022 11:45 AM EDT • 3 min 12 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

(FILES) This file photo taken on April 10, 2022 shows AC Milan?s French forward Olivier Giroud gesturing at the end of the Italian Serie A football match between Torino and AC Milan at The Olympic Stadium in Turin. - Giroud's decisive goals, Hernandez's accelerations, Maignan's parades and the rise of the Kalulu hope... The return to the forefront of AC Milan, opposed to Inter Milan in the semi-final return of the Coppa Italia on Tuesday, owes a lot to his "Francesi". (Photo by MARCO BERTORELLO / AFP)

We have a full complement of teams competing on Serie A's Matchday 34, with plenty to value to be had up and down the table. Keep reading for our Serie A Matchday 34 picks.

The two teams that share the San Siro are the only two teams left in the 2021-22 Serie A title race.

With just over a month to go in the season, AC Milan sit top of the table with 71 points with rival Inter Milan just two points behind, albeit with a game in hand. Napoli sits with 67 points in third place after drawing against Roma on Monday, effectively eliminating them from contention. Interestingly, the deficit Inter faces plus the fact that Milan holds the tiebreaker does not worry sportsbooks, as Inter are priced as low as -430 to win the title on FanDuel Sportsbook.

At the bottom of the table, Genoa, Salernitana, and Venezia are all stuck on 22 points and six points back of safety. Cagliari's 1-0 win against Sassuolo on April 16 may have saved their Serie A ambitions for next season.

Here are my top betting picks and predictions for the Serie A Matchday 34 schedule (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, and FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Top Serie A Matchday 34 Picks

Milan (+140 via Caesars)????Empoli-Napoli Over 3 goals (+105 via DraftKings)????Atalanta to win and Under 3.5 goals (+124 via FanDuel)?????

Serie A Matchday 34 Predictions

Milan (+140)

Both title contenders have tricky matchups on Matchday 34, but we like the Rossoneri of the two to grab a result.

Milan are arguably the best team away from home this season, picking up 37 of a possible 48 points on the road while being tied for the most away goals with Sassuolo. Lazio are 4-1-1 across their last six matches, but three of those wins came against relegation candidates Venezia, Genoa, and Cagliari. Lazio also needed a 92nd-minute goal from Ciro Immobile to salvage a point against Torino at the Stadio Olimpico. They are 10th and ninth, respectively, in xG and xGA at home on the season.

There's also the question of availability for Lazio heading into this one. Ten different Lazio players missed training for unspecified reasons on Tuesday, including key midfielder Sergej Milinkovic-Savic. The market has already moved on this news and has bet down Milan with Caesars offering the best remaining price.

Milan beat Lazio 4-0 on Feb. 9 in the Coppa Italia with full-strength lineups, so Milan facing a potentially weakened Lazio side at this price represents great value.

Empoli-Napoli Over 3 goals (+105)

We love a good Serie A Over, and this match in Tuscany on Sunday has a suppressed total projection relative to what the numbers suggest.

Empoli are comfortably in 14th position, safe from relegation but not threatening for a European position. For Napoli, their title dreams are all but done but would still like to finish ahead of bitter rivals Juventus who are four points behind. Empoli have conceded the most goals at home and have the worst xGA at home on the season, well behind second-to-worst Venezia. However, Napoli are third in goals scored away from home on the season and have the fifth-best xG away since the start of 2022.

Empoli's last four home matches against the top seven teams cashed the Over on this line. While both teams have relatively little to play for, there still should be goals aplenty at the Stadio Carlo Castellani.

Atalanta to win and Under 3.5 goals (+124)

Atalanta have built a well-earned reputation as a high-flying, attacking team over the past few seasons but that hasn't come to fruition for most of this season.

La Dea are just eighth in Serie A this season, losing three on the bounce in the league and being bounced in the Europa League on April 14. Gian Piero Gasperini's side is likely facing a retool in the summer transfer window, but for now, Atalanta still have to play out the string starting with Venezia on Saturday.

Venezia's fire kits haven't been able to give them any benefit on the pitch in their return to the top flight. They are 19th in both xG and xGA on the season and only Salernitana have gotten fewer points at home than Venezia. Atalanta are eighth and fifth, respectively, in goals for and xG on the season. That's a far cry from last season when they were first and second in both categories, respectively. Six of the past seven Atalanta away games fell shy of this projected total, as well as six of the past seven Venezia home games.

Atalanta won at home against Venezia on Nov. 30 and in the Coppa Italia on Jan. 12. They still have more than enough to beat a Venezia side likely to get relegated, just not by the big amount that we've come to expect.

Serie A Matchday 34 Quick Picks

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Where to Bet on Serie A

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks for Serie A:

FanDuel Sportsbook Caesars Sportsbook DraftKings Sportsbook PointsBet BetMGM

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Serie A Matchday 34 picks made 4/21/2022 at 4:15 p.m. ET

Written By:
Nick Bondi

Publishing Editor for Sportsbook Review. Long-suffering Canucks fan. Formerly of SB Nation and the Locked On Network. In my spare time, you can find me betting on any sport with a ball or a puck.