Top Serie A Matchday 27 Betting Picks: Title Race Heating Up

Nick Bondi

Last Updated: February 24, 2022 1:05 PM EST • 2 min 46 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Arturo Vidal of Inter during the Italian Serie A football match between FC Inter and Sassuolo Calcio on February 20, 2022 at San Siro - Giuseppe Meazza stadium in Milano , Italy (Photo by Nderim Kaceli/LiveMedia/NurPhoto) (Photo by Nderim Kaceli / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP)

Serie A continues to deliver, as we've got another three days full of action coming up. Keep reading for our Serie A Matchday 27 picks.

Matchday 26 was one full of upsets in Serie A. The top six teams all dropped points, leading now to a congested top of the table. Despite drawing with bottom of the table Salernitana, AC Milan are still the league leaders. That is due to the fact that rivals Inter Milan lost at home to Sassuolo, and Napoli could only muster a draw against Cagliari on the road.

For this week's Serie A picks, we'll take a look at a midtable game with plenty of implications, one of the top teams looking to bounce back, and a game that could feature a flurry of goals.

Here are my top betting picks and predictions for the Serie A Matchday 27 schedule (odds via DraftKings SportsBook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Top Serie A Matchday 27 Picks

Asian handicap: Sassuolo pk (+105 via DraftKings)????Same game parlay: Inter to win and both teams to score no (+116 via FanDuel)????Asian total: Empoli-Juventus Over 3 goals (+125 via DraftKings)???

Serie A Matchday 27 Betting Picks

Asian line: Sassuolo pk (+105)

With a win against Inter at the San Siro, one of the quirkiest storylines of the Serie A season continues.

Sassuolo have an amazing record against the top sides in Italy. They now have wins against Juventus, Milan, Lazio, and Inter, and have drawn against Roma, Fiorentina, and Napoli. Their record against the bottom half of the table is where they've faltered, dropping points against Genoa, Spezia, and losing against Udinese and Sampdoria.

The price for this has been cut into in recent days, but it still provides value at +105. Fiorentina will be missing key players Lucas Torreira and Nikola Milenkovic, and both teams have nearly identical goals for and expected goals for statistics. We'll hedge against Sassuolo's substandard home record and take the Asian line here.

Same game parlay: Inter to win and both teams to score no (+120)

After Inter's disappointing loss the last matchday, I can't think of a better team to play in a get-right game than Genoa.

Genoa are 19th in Serie A, and 19th in GF and xGF. They've scored a putrid nine goals at home and have been blanked in six of their past eight Serie A home matches. And while they did score in their last home date against Salernitana, that was due more to the circumstances as we explained last week.

Inter's resume needs little to no explanation at this point. The Nerazzurri have conceded just 10 times away from the San Siro this season and won 4-0 in the reverse fixture on Aug. 21 to open up their campaign. The only reason this isn't a five-star play is that Inter have a Milan derby rematch in the Coppa Italia semi-final on Tuesday, and could rest a couple of key players. Serious teams beat teams like Genoa convincingly if they want to win the Scudetto come May.

Asian total: Empoli-Juventus Over 3 goals (+125)

Serie A Overs have been good to us so far, and we've identified the best opportunity to get on the side of goals this matchday.

Empoli's home matches have featured a flurry of goals. Excluding last week's game against Cagliari - who struggle to score at the best of times - seven of their last eight home matches against Serie A clubs have exceeded or hit this number. While they've scored a pedestrian 20 goals on 15.99 xGF at the Stadio Carlo Castellani, their 30.18 xGA at home is by far the worst number in the league.

Juve have actually scored more goals away from the Allianz Stadium this season, a remarkable stat considering how well they've played there over the past decade. With Juventus desperate for three points and eager to avenge their shock loss to them from Aug. 28, I think they come out with a bit more attacking prowess than we've seen from them in the past few games.

Serie A Matchday 27 Quick Picks

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Where to Bet on Serie A

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks for Serie A:

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Serie A Matchday 27 picks made 2/23/2022 at 11:53 a.m. ET

Written By:
Nick Bondi

Publishing Editor for Sportsbook Review. Long-suffering Canucks fan. Formerly of SB Nation and the Locked On Network. In my spare time, you can find me betting on any sport with a ball or a puck.