The Turin Derby highlights what promises to be another great weekend of action on the peninsula. Read on for our top Serie A Matchday 26 picks.
We're entering the final stretch of the Serie A season, and there's an exciting title race developing. Just two points are separating first-place AC Milan, second-place Inter, and third-place Napoli heading into this matchday. All three are clear Matchday 26 favorites, which means this logjam up top will likely continue for at least another week.
Top Serie A Matchday 26 Picks
Same-Game Parlay: AC Milan to win, both teams to score - No, Over 1.5 goals (+190 via DraftKings)Asian Total: Roma-Hellas Verona Over 3 goals (+125 via DraftKings)Venezia-Genoa both teams to score (-125 via BetMGM)
SEE ALSO: Premier League Matchday 26 Picks
Serie A Matchday 26 Predictions
AC Milan to win, both teams to score - No, Over 1.5 goals (+190)
Salernitana is on track to be effectively relegated by April, and there's no reason to believe their outlook will improve with league leaders Milan coming to the Stadio Arechi. New manager Davide Nicola orchestrated a miracle campaign with Crotone in 2016-17 while saving them from relegation. But he'll be in tough to repeat that more than halfway through this season.
Salernitana has produced the league's worst goal differential at minus-36 while collecting just 13 points over 23 games. They've scored a mere seven goals at home with a 9.22 expected goals for while conceding 26. They had lost seven straight matches before picking up two points against fellow relegation battlers Spezia and Genoa.
Milan won 2-0 with two first-half goals in the reverse fixture at the San Siro on Dec. 4. Meanwhile, Salernitana generated just 0.18 xGF. We're banking on a similar if not better result Sunday with this same-game parlay.
Roma-Hellas Verona Over 3 goals (+125)
The best value for a Serie A Over this matchday lies in this mid-table battle between Roma and Hellas Verona.
Hellas Verona has scored the fourth-most goals in Serie A, ahead of teams like Atalanta and Napoli. After Juventus blanked them two weeks ago, they came back and put four past Udinese.
However, Hellas Verona's defense is a weakness, with the team conceding 40 goals on just 31.62 expected goals against. Similarly, Roma has scored 42 goals in 2021-22, but they're not playing with the same defensive solidarity we've come to expect from a team Jose Mourinho is managing. The two clean sheets they've kept since the beginning of January came against Genoa and Cagliari, squads that struggle to score.
This matchup ended in a 3-2 shootout in September. Expect another goal-fest Saturday at the Stadio Olimpico.
Venezia-Genoa both teams to score (-125)
This is a bottom-of-the-table clash many people could be overlooking.
Both teams desperately need something from this match to avoid relegation. Venezia is 18th in Serie A with 21 points, while Genoa is 19th with 15. A win would go a long way toward surviving, and a loss would be crushing.
Last week showed what happens when two teams at the bottom of the table face off this time of year. Genoa and Salernitana drew 1-1, with the former generating 2.59 xGF and the latter scoring one of their 17 goals in 2021-22.
With both squads taking a more adventurous approach, there's a very good chance each side finds the back of the net.
Serie A Matchday 26 Quick Picks
Serie A Matchday 26 picks made 2/16/2022 at 5:32 p.m. ET