Top Premier League Matchday 27 Betting Picks: Table's Lower Half Provides Value

A slew of midweek makeup games altered the Premier League landscape, and the weekend features some high-stakes matchups. We take a look at some of the biggest games with our Premier League Matchday 27 picks.

Manchester City are suddenly just three points clear atop the Premier League table following their loss to Spurs and Liverpool's win against Norwich and destruction of Leeds. The fight for a spot in Europe continues, but we're directing our attention to the lower half of the table for our Matchday 27 picks.

A mid-table side attempts to reverse its fortunes at home following a sound away win, one of England's hottest clubs tries to further separate itself from the bottom three, and a prime relegation candidate looks to upset a giant for the second time this season.

Here are my top betting picks and predictions for the Premier League Matchday 27 schedule (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Premier League Matchday 27 Picks

Crystal Palace to win and Under 3.5 (+140)?????Newcastle to win and Under 3.5 (+261)?????Watford 0.5 (+255)???

SEE ALSO: Top Serie A Matchday 27 Betting Picks

Premier League Matchday 27 Predictions

Crystal Palace and Under 3.5 (+140 via DraftKings)

Palace walloped Watford 4-1 at Vicarage Road to end a string of poor results, but it's their performances at home that demand attention. The Eagles are 12th in the Premier League in points per game at home, but they own the league's fifth-best expected goal differential at home. That's better than West Ham's, Manchester United's, and Spurs'.

Meanwhile, Burnley are coming off a quality performance of their own. They defeated Spurs 1-0 at home on Wednesday, but they've been absolutely atrocious away from Turf Moor. Burnley owned a minus-1.3 xGD at home prior to Wednesday's affair. Comparatively, the Clarets' minus-10.5 away xGD is the second-worst mark in the league.

Palace have a number of solid performances in losing efforts at home - a 1-0 loss to Chelsea last week among them - and a visit from Burnley is the perfect time to capitalize on some positive regression. Burnley have scored the second-fewest goals in the Premier League this season, and their struggles to find the back of the net will continue at Selhurst Park.

For those interested in something a bit juicier, you can get Palace -1.5 at +265 or -2.5 at +800 at DraftKings.

Newcastle and Under 3.5 (+261 via FanDuel)

This is a battle of two teams heading in opposite directions.

Newcastle's new Saudi-led ownership group backed up the truck during the January transfer window, and the spending spree is already paying dividends. The Magpies have taken 11 points from their last five Premier League matches, a number bested by only Liverpool and Wolves' 15 and 12 points, respectively.

A side that conceded goals in bunches for much of the campaign is now especially stout at the back, with just 1.6 expected goals allowed in its three league matches since the transfer window closed.

Meanwhile, Brentford are in a truly dire bit of form. They've taken just one point from their last five, which is joint-worst in the league. They've scored a grand total of three goals in those matches and haven't scored more than one goal in a Premier League game since Jan. 2 (a game in which they scored twice on 0.6 expected goals).

If there's one positive to take from Brentford's season, it's that they've been better defensively at home - where this one will be played - with just 13.8 xGA compared to 19.9 away xGA.

Newcastle should remain tight at the back and pick up another three points to continue their scintillating run of form. You can get Newcastle -1.5 at +650 at DraftKings.

Watford 0.5 (+255 via DraftKings)

Watford are an absolute abomination of a club and are almost guaranteed to go down at season's end. However, their visit to Old Trafford comes with some intrigue.

Both clubs played Wednesday: Watford suffered the aforementioned defeat to Palace and Manchester United traveled to Spain for a 1-1 draw against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League. However, the circumstances matter more than the results. A tired - both emotionally and physically - United side now heads back home to England to host Watford on Saturday.

For their part, Watford have been significantly better away from home. Their minus-13.8 xGD at home (prior to Wednesday's affair) is easily the worst in the league, though they own a much more respectable minus-2.9 xGD away from home. The latter is the seventh-best mark in the Premier League.

United suffered 1-0 defeats at home this season to similarly solid away sides Aston Villa and Wolves. More importantly, Watford clobbered the Red Devils 4-1 in the reverse fixture in November.

Top-four hopefuls West Ham and Spurs continue to drop points, and United will follow suit on Saturday.

For some extra juice, you can get the draw at +450 at DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM.

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Premier League Matchday 27 Quick Picks

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Premier League Matchday 27 picks made 2/23/2022 at 12:00 a.m. ET.